Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 9

[ofwono]

Hey Sergey, I looked through the links that you sent me and I found every thing except the indicator that I am really interested in. check the arrows that I have cycled with yellow color

[ofwono]

ofwono:

Hey Sergey, I looked through the links that you sent me and I found every thing except the indicator that I am really interested in. check the arrows that I have cycled with yellow color

below is the asctrend that I am not really intersted in

[ofwono]

Sergey Golubev:

AscTrend arrow - check my previous post

In the above image, I have cycled the indicator that I am interested in with yellow color and in the image below is the Asctrend that I am not interested in

[Sergey Golubev]

It was long year ago sorry ...

I think you can request to the Freelance service: https://www.mql5.com/en/job

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.14 08:50

Weekly Outlook: 2018, January 14 - January 21 (based on the article)

The dollar suffered across the board in the second week of 2018. Will it remain under pressure? The upcoming week features housing data and consumer confidence from the US, Chinese GDP, and other market-moving events. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. UK inflation report:  Tuesday, 9:30. Britain stands out among developed countries by suffering from elevated inflation. Year over year CPI surpassed the 3% threshold in the reading for November, above the 1-3% range. Rising inflation has already triggered a rate hike in November, but the BOE seems reluctant to make additional tightening given the uncertainty resulting from Brexit and the slowing economy. Another rise in this important report that concludes 2017 may force the BOE to rethink. A small drop to 3% is expected.
2. Empire State Manufacturing Index: Tuesday, 13:30. A level of 18.5 is predicted.
3. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The Bank of Canada is expected to raise interest rates for the third time in this cycle, from 1% to 1.25%. In the previous rate decision, it seemed like BOC Governor and his team were in for a long pause after normalizing rates back to 1% in mid-2017. However, recent economic data has been quite impressive: the economy gained some 79K positions in both November and December. The recent BOC Business survey was quite bullish, pointing to rapid expansion. Alongside a significant rise in oil prices, the time seems ripe for tightening by the Ottawa-based institution. A surprise “no-change” will hurt the C$. A rate hike is basically priced in and the response in case of a hike will depend on the prospects for further moves.
4. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. A modest gain of 15.2K jobs is on the cards. The unemployment rate carries expectations for remaining at 5.4%.
5. Chinese GDP: Thursday, 2:00. A minor slide to 6.7% is forecast.
6. US housing data: Thursday, 13:30. Building permits are projected to slide to 1.29 million while housing starts are predicted to drop to 1.27 million units annualized.
7. Crude Oil Inventories: Thursday, 16:00. With the prices of black gold hitting new highs, this release is important not only for loonie traders but also for the US dollar: there is often an inverse correlation between oil prices and the greenback.
8. US consumer sentiment: Friday, 15:00. A score of 97.2 is expected.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.20 09:27

Weekly Outlook: 2018, January 21 - January 28 (based on the article)

The dollar remained on the defensive but it wasn’t one-sided anymore. The greenback fought back. GDP from the US and the UK, rate decisions in Japan and the euro, and many other events await us in a busy week. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. Japanese rate decision: Tuesday morning. The Bank of Japan recently triggered a “mini taper tantrum” in Japanese bond markets. Among developed countries, Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy. Is this about to change? Not very soon. Inflation is still too low and the BOJ would prefer maintaining a low exchange rate for the yen as long as possible. In this meeting, they are likely to maintain their bond-buying program and negative interest rates unchanged, not providing any assistance to the yen.
2. US existing home sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Sales of existing homes consist of the lion’s share of transactions of real estate. The figures beat expectations in the past three months and reached an annualized level of 5.81 million in November. We will now get the data for December. A small slide to 5.72 million is expected.
3. New Zealand inflation report:  Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its inflation report only once per quarter, making every publication have an outsized impact. The impact is strong on the RBNZ and on NZD/USD. In Q3, prices advanced by 0.5% q/q, slightly above expectations. Nevertheless, inflation does not seem to get out of control. We will receive the data for Q4 and for the whole of 2017. A more moderate increase of 0.4% is forecast.
4. Euro-zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. The European Central Bank already announced in October that the QE program will run at least until September 2018, albeit at half the rate from this month, January, at 30 billion euros per month. ECB president Mario Draghi left the door open for further bond buying beyond September, in disagreement with some of the more hawkish members of the Governing Council. The meeting minutes from the December meeting showed more optimism about the economy and potentially a change in communication: perhaps an announcement about the end of QE in early 2018. However, the ascent of the euro hurts their efforts to push inflation higher and a few members began sending out warnings about the exchange rate. On this background, Draghi and co. are likely to refrain from any big announcements now, leaving the door open for extending the program beyond September, and making an official announcement a bit later on, perhaps in the March meeting, when they have new forecasts.
5. New Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. While most transactions are of second-hand homes, sales of new ones trigger more economic activity and are also correlated with the wider economy. Sales leaped to an annualized level of 733K in November. Is it a one-off or the beginning of a bigger trend? The data for December will help in providing an answer. A significant fall to 676K is projected.
6. UK GDP: Friday, 9:30. The British economy certainly slowed down in 2017 after enjoying a great 2016. The UK lagged behind other developed economies in the first three quarters of 2017. Growth picked up in Q3 and stood at 0.4% q/q, yet all the forecasts don’t point to an acceleration in growth. We will now get a look at data for Q4 and the total for 2017. This is the first release out of three. An increase of 0.4% q/q is predicted.
7. US GDP: Friday, 13:30. The US economy woke up from its slow growth pattern and grew at above 3% in Q2 and in Q3, which saw 3.2% annualized growth. According to the data already published for Q4, we could also see a similar growth rate in the last quarter of the year. This first release may see significant revisions in the second and final publications. A similar advance of 3% is estimated for Q4.
8. US durable goods orders: Friday, 13:30. Sales of durable goods feed into the GDP data. The Fed also looks at the data as a forward-looking one. In November, headline orders rose by 1.3% but core orders dropped by 0.1%. We will now get the data for December, but it is somewhat overshadowed by the GDP report that is released at the same time. Headline orders are projected to rise by 0.9% and core orders by 0.6%.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.23 08:11

IMF revises up world economic growth (based on the article)

• "The International Monetary Fund yesterday revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019 saying that sweeping US tax cuts were expected to boost investment in the world's largest economy and help its main trading partners. In an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF however warned that US growth would likely start weakening after 2022 as temporary spending incentives brought about by the tax cuts start to expire."
• "The US economy has been showing steady but underwhelming annual growth since the last recession in 2007-2009. The IMF revised up its forecast for global growth to 3.9 percent for 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point change from its last update in October."

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 12:17

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "The US Dollar continues to face heavy selling pressure, falling for a seventh consecutive week against its major counterparts. That is the longest losing streak in over 13 years. The currency seems to have become a victim of its own success: starting in 2014, the greenback enjoyed three years of gains as the Fed tightened policy while its G10 peers lagged behind. Now, a rosy global growth outlook is inspiring catch-up bets."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.30 17:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/CNH and Dollar Index: The Conference Board United States Consumer Confidence Index

2018-01-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 123.1
• forecast data is 123.2
• actual data is 125.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in January, following a decline in December. The Index now stands at 125.4 (1985=100), up from 123.1 in December. The Present Situation Index decreased slightly, from 156.5 to 155.3, while the Expectations Index increased from 100.8 last month to 105.5 this month."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. CB Consumer Confidence  news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.04 04:28

Weekly Outlook: 2018, February 04 - February 11 (based on the article)

The US dollar made an attempt to recover but the results were mixed in a very busy week. What’s next? The focus shifts away from the US as we have three rate decisions and two jobs reports from other places Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. UK Services PMI: Monday, 9:30. The first release for 2018 is expected to be very similar: 54.1 points.
2. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 15:00.
3. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia makes its first rate decision for the year after taking a break in January. Since its last meeting in December, the world continued growing at a robust pace and this helped the economy. Job growth was solid as well. On the other hand, the recent inflation report fell short of expectations and the high exchange rate does not make the RBA happy. Given the most recent slide, will the RBA try to hit the Aussie when it’s down?
4. New Zealand jobs report: Monday, 21:45. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise from 4.6% to 4.7%.
5. Bill Dudley talks: Wednesday, 13:30. The outgoing President of the New York Fed, a permanent voter on the FOMC, has been aligned with the central thinking of the Fed, especially with that of now-former Fed Chair Janet Yellen. He will speak at an event in New York and may comment on the jobs report as well as on the path of hikes for the Fed.
6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00.
7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. Any deviation from a unanimous vote to leave rates unchanged will stir the pound. Afterwards, the assessment of the economy and more importantly, inflation, will have its say.
8. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 13:30. The Canadian jobs report is published after the US Non-Farm Payrolls, allowing for reaction to the jobs report in USD/CAD.

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.