Forecast and levels for AUD - page 26

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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2021.06.02 10:09

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement 

2021-06-02 02:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.2%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Australian economy rose 1.8% in seasonally adjusted chain volume measures". 
  • "Through the year GDP rose 1.1%". 
  • "The terms of trade rose 7.4%". 
  • "Household saving ratio decreased to 11.6% from 12.2%".

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  GDP news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2021.06.25 15:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD and NZD/USD: United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index m/m

2021-06-25 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core PCE Price Index]

  • past data is 0.7%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core PCE Price Index] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From marketwatch article :

  • A key measure of U.S. inflation rose sharply again in May and showed prices rising at the fastest annual pace since 2008, signaling consumers can expect to pay more for goods and services over the summer as the economy recovers from the pandemic. 
  • The rate of PCE inflation is now almost double the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal, but senior officials have downplayed the increase. Fed leaders insist prices will ease next year as the economy returns to normal, most people go back to work and widespread shortages of labor and supplies fade away. 
  • The core PCE price index moved up 0.5% in May. That nudged the increase over the past 12 months to 3.4% from 3.1%.

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Core PCE Price Index news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by Core PCE Price Index news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by Core PCE Price Index news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Core PCE Price Index news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.07.21 07:47

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2021-07-21 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is -0.6%
  • actual data is -1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Australia's retail sales declined more than expected in June, preliminary data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed on Wednesday. Retail sales decreased 1.8 percent month-on-month in June, in contrast to a 0.4 percent rise in May. This was also bigger than the economists' forecast of -0.5 percent."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread




 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.03 13:08

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2021-08-03 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.10%
  • forecast data is 0.10%
  • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

"At its meeting today, the Board decided to:

  • maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances of zero per cent
  • maintain the target of 10 basis points for the April 2024 Australian Government bond
  • continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $5 billion a week until early September and then $4 billion a week until at least mid November".

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 



 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.08.17 18:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: United States Retail Sales

2021-08-17 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.7%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From marketwatch article :

  • U.S. stocks fell Tuesday, threatening to end a five-day run of record finishes for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes, after July retail sales came in weaker than expected.
  • U.S. stocks recovered Monday from early losses, and the S&P 500 notched its 49th record close of 2021. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each established a fifth straight record close, while the Nasdaq Composite weakened by 0.2%.
  • Retail sales fell 1.1% in July, and were down 0.4% after excluding autos. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had penciled in a 0.3% monthly drop in sales in July, or a 0.2% gain when autos are excluded.

    ==========

    GBP/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    GBP/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    ==========

    AUD/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    AUD/USD : range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    ==========

    USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

    ==========

    Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


     

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.09.28 07:24

    AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

    2021-09-28 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

    • past data is -2.7%
    • forecast data is -2.5%
    • actual data is -1.7% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • Australian retail turnover fell 1.7 per cent in August 2021, seasonally adjusted, according to the Retail Trade figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was the third consecutive monthly fall in turnover following falls of 2.7 per cent in July 2021, and 1.8 per cent in June 2021.

      ==========

      AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event 

      AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

      ==========

      Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:



       

      Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2021.11.02 09:42

      AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

      2021-11-02 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

      • past data is 0.10%
      • forecast data is 0.10%
      • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

      if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

      [AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

      ==========

      From official report :

      • "maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at zero per cent"
      • "continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid February 2022"
      • "discontinue the target of 10 basis points for the April 2024 Australian Government bond".

      ==========

      AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

      AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

      ==========

      Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

      ==========

      The forum threads
      1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
      2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
      3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
      4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

      CodeBase

      1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
      2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
      3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
      4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
      5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

      The articles



       

      Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2021.12.03 14:50

      Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, AUD/USD and BTC/USD: United States Nonfarm Payrolls

      2021-12-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

      • past data is 546K
      • forecast data is 553K
      • actual data is 210K according to the latest press release

      if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

      [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

      ==========

      From official report :

      • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month".


      ==========

      GBP/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

      GBP/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

      ==========

      AUD/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


      AUD/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

      ==========

      BTC/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

      BTC/USD : range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

      ==========

      The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


       

      Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2021.12.07 09:33

      AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

      2021-12-07 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

      • past data is 0.10%
      • forecast data is 0.10%
      • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

      if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

      [AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

      ==========

      From official report :

      "At its meeting today, the Board decided to:

      • maintain the cash rate target at 10 basis points and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at zero per cent
      • continue to purchase government securities at the rate of $4 billion a week until at least mid February 2022".

        ==========

        AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

        AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

        ==========

        Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

        All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 



         

        Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

        Press review

        Sergey Golubev, 2022.01.26 20:25

        Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index : Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

        2022-01-26 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

        • past data is 0.25%
        • forecast data is 0.25%
        • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

        if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

        [USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

        ==========

        From official report :

        "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

        ==========

        AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        ==========

        NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        ==========

        Hang Seng Index (HK50) : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        Hang Seng Index (HK50) : range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

        ==========

        Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

        ==========

        Same systems for MT4/MT5:

        The beginning

        1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
        2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
        3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
        4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
        5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
        6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

        After 

        1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
        2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
        3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
        4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 



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