Forecast and levels for AUD - page 25

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2020.12.16 15:56

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-12-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.6%
  • actual data is -0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From rttnews article:

  • "The Commerce Department said retail sales tumbled by 1.1 percent in November following a revised 0.1 percent dip in October. Excluding the slump in auto sales, however, retail sales still fell by 0.9 percent in November after edging down by 0.1 percent in October. Ex-auto sales were expected to inch up by 0.1 percent."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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121938
Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2021.01.13 15:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/CNH and AUD/USD: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2021-01-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
121938
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2021.01.27 09:09

AUD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsAustralia CPI and range price movement 

2021-01-27 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 1.6%
  • forecast data is 0.7%
  • actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% this quarter." 
  • "Over the twelve months to the December 2020 quarter the CPI rose 0.9%."

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by  Australia CPI news event 

    AUD/USD: range price movement by  Australia CPI news event

    ==========

    Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:



    Sergey Golubev
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    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.02.02 08:15

    AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash RateRate Statement and range price movement 

    2021-02-02 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

    • past data is 0.10%
    • forecast data is 0.10%
    • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility. It also decided to purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April. These additional purchases will be at the current rate of $5 billion a week."
    • "The recovery is expected to continue, with the central scenario being for GDP to grow by 3½ per cent over both 2021 and 2022. GDP is now expected to return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year. Even so, the economy is expected to operate with considerable spare capacity for some time to come. The unemployment rate remains higher than it has been for the past 2 decades and while it is expected to decline, the central scenario is for unemployment to be around 6 per cent at the end of this year and 5½ per cent at the end of 2022."
    • "The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest."

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

    AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

    ==========

    Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

    ==========

    The forum threads
    1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
    2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
    3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
    4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

    CodeBase

    1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
    2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
    3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
    4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
    5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

    The articles


    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
    121938
    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.02.17 15:53

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

    2021-02-17 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

    • past data is -1.8%
    • forecast data is -0.3%
    • actual data is 5.9% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

    ==========

    From marketwatch article :

    • "Sales at U.S. retailers surged in January and posted the first increase in four months, adding to evidence of a rebound in the economy after fresh government financial aid and a waning number of coronavirus cases. Retail sales leaped 5.3% last month, the government said Wednesday. It was the largest increase in eight months."

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    AUD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    ==========

    NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    ==========

    USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

    ==========

    Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

    All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
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    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.02.18 08:08

    AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

    2021-02-18 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

    • past data is 50.0K
    • forecast data is 65.2K
    • actual data is 29.1K according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • Employment increased by 29,100 people (0.2%) to 12,939,900 people.
    • Unemployment rate decreased to 6.4%.

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event

    ==========

    Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

    ==========

    Same systems for MT4/MT5:

    The beginning

    1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
    2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
    3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
    4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
    5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
    6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

    After 

    1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
    2. Asctrend indicator in depth
    3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
    4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
    121938
    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.03.17 20:10

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng IndexFederal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

    2021-03-18 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

    • past data is 0.25%
    • forecast data is 0.25%
    • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals. These asset purchases help foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses".

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    ==========

    NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    NZD/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    ==========

    Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

    ==========

    The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
    121938
    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.04.17 04:39

    AUD/USD - daily bear market rally to the bullish reversal with 0.7760 key resistance level; weekly bullish ranging within 0.75/0.80 s/r levels for direction (based on the article)

    AUD/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

    AUD/USD weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

    • "The sentiment-linked Australian Dollar aimed cautiously higher this past week, but it remains lower than where it was on average against its major counterparts in February – see chart below. On the whole, the Aussie has been in a fairly consolidative state since the end of 2020, materially slowing down its upside progress since last year’s Covid-induced bottom."
    • "Now, fundamental forces could continue to support the Aussie in the near term, but it remains to be seen if it could have a material lasting impact. This past week, the Aussie capitalized on a decline in Treasury yields despite higher-than-estimated US inflation and retail sales data. In fact, headline CPI clocked in at 2.6% y/y in March, the most since August 2018."

    ============

    The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
    121938
    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.04.21 07:05

    AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

    2021-04-21 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

    • past data is -0.8%
    • forecast data is 1.1%
    • actual data is 1.4% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

    ==========

    From rttnews article :

    • "The value of retail sales in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$30.724 billion. On a yearly basis, retail sales gained 2.3 percent in March following the 9.1 percent annual spike in February."

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event 

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event

    AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Retail Sales news event

    ==========

    Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


    Sergey Golubev
    Moderator
    121938
    Sergey Golubev  

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2021.05.04 07:51

    AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash RateRate Statement and range price movement 

    2021-05-04 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

    • past data is 0.10%
    • forecast data is 0.10%
    • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

    [AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.
    • The global economy is continuing to recover from the pandemic and the outlook is for strong growth this year and next. The recovery remains uneven, though, and some countries are yet to contain the virus. Global trade in goods has picked up strongly and commodity prices are mostly higher than at the start of the year. However, inflation remains low and below central bank targets.
    • The Bank's central scenario for GDP growth has been revised up further, with growth of 4¾ per cent expected over 2021 and 3½ per cent over 2022. A pick-up in business investment is expected and household spending will be supported by the strengthening in balance sheets over the past year. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline, to be around 5 per cent at the end of this year and around 4½ per cent at the end of 2022.
    • The Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions to support a return to full employment in Australia and inflation consistent with the target. It will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, the labour market will need to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is unlikely to be until 2024 at the earliest.

    ==========

    AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

    AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

    AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

    ==========

    Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

    ==========

    The forum threads
    1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
    2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
    3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
    4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

    CodeBase

    1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
    2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
    3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
    4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
    5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

    The articles