Forecast and levels for AUD - page 22

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.17 09:01

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia House Price Index (HPI), RBA Meeting Minutes and range price movement  

2020-03-17 00:30 GMT | [AUD - HPI]

  • past data is 2.4%
  • forecast data is 4.8%
  • actual data is 3.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[AUD - HPI] = Change in the selling price of homes in the nation's 8 state capitals.

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From official report :

  • "Weighted average of the eight capital cities Residential Property Price Index rose 3.9% this quarter."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia House Price Index (HPI) news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia House Price Index (HPI) news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.19 07:40

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2020-03-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 12.9K
  • forecast data is 8.5K
  • actual data is 26.7K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 26,700 to 13,015,100 persons. Full-time employment increased 6,700 to 8,884,600 persons and part-time employment increased 20,000 to 4,130,600 persons."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.01 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-04-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

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From official report :

  • "Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.07 07:48

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2020-04-07 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board reaffirmed the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian government bonds of 25 basis points, as well as the other elements of the package announced on 19 March 2020."
  • "Financial market volatility has been historically high and many markets around the world have been dislocated. There are, however, some signs that markets are working more effectively than they were a few weeks ago. This improvement partly reflects the substantial measures undertaken by central banks."
  • "The Board is committed to doing what it can to support jobs, incomes and businesses as Australia deals with the coronavirus. The comprehensive policy package announced last month will also support the expected recovery. The Board will not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment and it is confident that inflation will be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target band."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.16 08:41

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2020-04-16 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 25.6K
  • forecast data is -33.0K
  • actual data is 5.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%."
  • "Employment increased 5,900 to 13,017,600 persons. Full-time employment decreased 400 to 8,882,200 persons and part-time employment increased 6,400 to 4,135,400 persons".
  • "Unemployment increased 20,300 to 718,600 persons."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.29 06:57

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia CPI and range price movement 

2020-04-29 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.7%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "rose 0.3% in the March 2020 quarter, compared to a rise of 0.7% in the December 2019 quarter." 
  • "rose 2.2% over the twelve months to the March 2020 quarter, compared to a rise of 1.8% over the twelve months to the December 2019 quarter."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by  Australia CPI news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia CPI news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.05 09:44

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2020-05-05 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points." 
  • "In the baseline scenario considered by the Board, the unemployment rate peaks at around 10 per cent over coming months and is still above 7 per cent at the end of next year. A lower unemployment rate than this is possible if the reduction in labour demand is accompanied by a larger reduction in average hours worked, rather than by people losing their jobs." 
  • "The Board also considered other scenarios. A stronger economic recovery is possible if there is further substantial progress in containing the coronavirus in the near term and there is a faster return to normal economic activity. On the other hand, if the lifting of restrictions is delayed or the restrictions need to be reimposed or household and business confidence remains low, the outcomes would be even more challenging than those in the baseline scenario. These scenarios will be discussed in the Statement on Monetary Policy, to be released later this week."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 


==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Australia Retail Sales Jump 8.5% In March

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.06 07:50

Australia Retail Sales Jump 8.5% In March

Retail sales in Australia spiked a seasonally adjusted 8.5 percent on month in March, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - coming in at A$30.110 billion.



That6 beat expectations for an increase of 8.2 percent following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent gain in February (originally 0.5 percent).

The following industries rose in seasonally adjusted terms in March 2020: Food retailing (24.1 percent), Other retailing (16.6 percent), and Household goods retailing (9.1 percent). Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (-22.9 percent), Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing (-22.6 percent), and Department stores (-8.9 percent) fell in seasonally adjusted terms in March 2020.

The following states and territories rose in seasonally adjusted terms in March 2020: New South Wales (8.0 percent), Victoria (7.7 percent), Queensland (8.8 percent), Western Australia (9.9 percent), South Australia (9.4 percent), Tasmania (8.9 percent), the Australian Capital Territory (9.5 percent), and the Northern Territory (11.6 percent).

more..

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.07 10:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and range price movement 

2020-05-07 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 3.87B
  • forecast data is 6.40B
  • actual data is 10.60B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $10,602m in March 2020, an increase of $6,737m on the surplus in February 2020."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, goods and services credits rose $5,558m (15%) to $42,417m. Non-rural goods rose $3,540m (15%), non-monetary gold rose $2,474m, rural goods rose $271m (7%) and net exports of goods under merchanting rose $1m (6%). Services credits fell $727m (9%)."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 
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