Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 14

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.06 15:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Brent Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-03-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 273K
• forecast data is 175K
• actual data is 273K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.11 12:52

GOLD (XAU/USD) - why you should buy Gold now (based on the article)

• "Gold is known as the safe-haven asset, and whenever we see a meltdown in the equity markets or prospects of loose monetary policy, its price begins to explode to the upside. Currently, the gold price has a strong negative correlation with the equity markets meaning when the equity markets fall; investors pour money into gold and vice versa."
• "The fact is that the current sell-off in the global equity markets is only a start because there is a lot more to come. After all, the economic weakness isn’t fully baked into economic data, let alone in earnings. Thus, there is no better time to buy gold."
• "Going back to the monetary policy action and why there is serious potential for the gold price to increase; at present, traders and Wall Street are expecting further interest rate cuts from the Fed during their meeting next week. An interest rate cut of 50 basis points is the minimum that investors expect, and according to bigger banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, we can expect 75 basis points and a full percentage point."
  

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Chart was made on MT5 together with following indicators from CodeBase:

• MFCS Currency Correlation Chart - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.01 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-04-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 179K
• forecast data is -150K
• actual data is -27K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

• "Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.09 16:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

• past data is 6867K
• forecast data is 5000K
• actual data is 6606K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

• "In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 54,750 from 2,612,000 to 2,666,750."
  

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Maksim Dlugoborskiy]

The precious metal ended the trading week stronger, but the main goal is still right on the course. The more governments stimulate their economies, the more expensive gold will become. 

Analysts of the precious metals market believe that the current measures of incentives in the framework of confusion, combine impressive prerequisites for increasing purchases of gold. In addition, in the current conditions, gold is considered as a protective, not a risky option for saving money. And demand increases regardless of the stock market.  

Gold futures are approaching their maximum extremes of 7 years ago. 

Unparalleled in history, the steps taken by the authorities to preserve the financial system, turn capital into flight to safe assets such as gold. 

The Japanese national Bank, the ECB and the Federal Reserve, at their next upcoming meetings, may still agree on the next financial injection into their economies. 

The house of representatives in the United States has approved another plan to provide monetary support in the fight against the pandemic. For now, this bill is awaiting President trump's approval. 

Gold will be in demand as long as financial incentives are widely applied to economies. 

When the panic around the disease subsides, gold will be in a strong overbought zone, which will cause a strong pullback. Therefore, the assault on seven-year highs may be slightly pushed back to a later date. 

The gold metal received another portion of positive news for itself, in the form of statistics on unemployment in the States. The report's figures indicate that the peak of the jump in unemployment has not yet passed. And the number of citizens requesting benefits in these 5 weeks exceeds 26 million.  

The price of oil in the past trading week, for the first time in history, crossed the zero line, which further increased fears and fears for the world economy, thereby creating prerequisites for the strengthening of the precious metal.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.12 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States  Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2020-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is -0.4%
• forecast data is -0.7%
• actual data is -0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.15 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-05-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is -4.0%
• forecast data is -8.6%
• actual data is -17.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

• "In a historic collapse, retail spending in the U.S. nosedived again last month, dropping a record 16.4% as people avoided restaurants, bars, stores and malls during the coronavirus pandemic."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.28 16:20

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2020-05-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

• past data is -4.8%
• forecast data is -4.8%
• actual data is -5.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 (table 1), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by  United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.05 15:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-06-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is -20687K
• forecast data is -7750K
• actual data is 2509K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 2.5 million in May, and the unemployment rate declined to 13.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflected a limited resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In May, employment rose sharply in leisure and hospitality, construction, education and health services, and retail trade. By contrast, employment in government continued to decline sharply."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.20 10:58

GOLD (XAU/USD) - bullish breakout to be started; 1,744 is the nearest target (based on  the article)

• "Gold prices ended the week on a strong note as "rising coronavirus cases in China and the United States accelerate the flight to safety," says FXTM senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga."

• "August Comex gold closed +1.3% to $1,753/oz., the highest finish for a most-active contract since mid-May, and ended 0.9% higher for the week; also, July silver  settled +1.9% to $17.84/oz., posting a weekly rise of 2.1%."
• "Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month forecast on gold to $2,000/oz. from $1,800, citing low real interest rates and concerns over currency debasement."
• "The bank also lifts its 12-month silver forecast to $22/oz. from a previous forecast of $15, expecting silver industrial demand to rise as the global economy recovers."
  

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ChandeQStick - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install