Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 8

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.24 13:59

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

GOLD/USD

XAU/USD"Gold prices surged this week with the precious metal up nearly 2.7% to trade at 1348 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The losses come amid continued weakness in broader risk assets with all three U.S. Major Indices down more than 4% on the week. For gold, the advance has taken prices through the monthly opening-range highs and keeps the focus higher heading into the monthly close. For gold, the prospect of a more gradual normalization path from the central bank alleviated the recent downward pressure with mounting concerns over the potential for a global trade war stoking demand for the perceived safety of the yellow metal. From a technical standpoint, Gold has stretched into fresh monthly highs with the advance keeping the near-term focus higher heading into next week."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


Wan Shi Tong
378
Wan Shi Tong  
fxstrategist007:

Gold is boxed between the 200 day EMA round the 1266 level and the 55 day EMA around the 1285 level. The consolidation may continue between those two level, but a bullish breakout may take the price of gold to the 1300 level. A bearish breakdown will leave the road clear for the price to drop all the way to the 1204 level, with some pull backs on the way down.

All indicators based on average mislead traders. Chuck all average based indicators out.
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.06 14:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDUSD/JPY and GoldNon-Farm Payrolls

2018-04-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 326K
  • forecast data is 188K
  • actual data is 103K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

EURUSD during NFP

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDJPY during NFP

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Gold during NFP

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

Gold chart by Metatrader 5

XAU/USD"Gold prices inched higher this week with the precious metal nudging up nearly 0.5% ahead of the New York lose on Friday. The gains come amid continued volatility in broader markets with all three major U.S. equity indices poised to close lower on the week. For gold, this volatility may keep a floor under prices as risk sentiment begins to deteriorate. Gold prices have largely continued to trade within the January range with price holding this descending channel formation off the yearly highs. Daily momentum has failed to offer any guidance here and the focus is on immediate support at 1316 and the yearly high-day reversal close at 1348. We need to clear this range to get clarity on our medium-term outlook."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


fxstrategist007
108
fxstrategist007  
Gold has found a good support at its 55 day EMA on the 1325 level. The price of gold has broken below that moving average, but it has not been able to confirm a bearish breakdown for now. Therefore, gold could try to go back up to the 1350 level. On the other hand, if the price drops below the 55 day EMA, then it could fall to the 200 day EMA at the 1300 level.
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:27

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

Gold chart by Metatrader 5

XAU/USD - "Gold prices seemed like they were about to shoot for the stars last week as fears of escalating geopolitical tensions around Syria ignited risk aversion. Stocks sank and the relatively higher-yielding US Dollar fell, fueling demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, this trading dynamic quickly reversed, and by Thursday gold gave up its gains from the day before. Cooling Syria conflict tensions and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes helped contribute to this. The week ahead looks to be lighter in terms of economic statistics. The major standout being March’s US retail sales figures that are due on Tuesday. There, consumer spending is expected to increase for the first time in two months by 0.4% m/m. However, data out of the country has been falling short relative to economists’ expectations as of late. A downside surprise may boost gold if the US Dollar declines as a result."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.02 20:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USDUSD/JPY and GOLD: FOMC Rate and Statement

2018-05-02 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] =Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

GBP/USD chart by MT5

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/JPY chart by MT5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

Gold/USD chart by MT5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.04 07:52

Gold Demand Trends Q1 2018 (based on the article)

GOLD/USD Weekly Chart by Metatrader 5

  • "World Gold Council, the market development organization for the gold industry, recently released their Gold Demand Trends Q1 2018 report. The report outlines a slow start to the year for gold, as demand dropped 7% year-on-year to 973.5t - the lowest first quarter in a decade."
  • "According to the report, stock market volatility sparked US inflows, but outflows in other regions. This kept gold prices muted and left investors lacking confidence on prices, weakening demand for gold. Other key highlights of the report include gold bar and gold coin demand falling 15%, a decline led by China, Germany, and the US. In addition, jewelry demand’s strength in the US and China offset a weak quarter in India."
  • "However, gold used in technology industries saw growth for the sixth straight quarter. Gold’s usefulness in memory chips and wireless applications continued to sustain a healthy demand."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.30 06:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar IndexUSD/CAD and GOLDCB Consumer Confidence

2018-05-29 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 125.6
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 128.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in May, following a modest decline in April (after a downward revision). The Index now stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. The Present Situation Index increased from 157.5 to 161.7, while the Expectations Index improved from 104.3 last month to 105.6 this month."

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Dollar Index M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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USD/CAD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/CAD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M15: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Gold/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

Sergey Golubev
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Indicators: FP channel

Sergey Golubev, 2014.02.22 07:22

How to Trade Gold Yearly Pivot Points (adapted from dailyfx article)

  • Commodity pit traders have used pivot points for decades to determine potential support and resistance areas.
  • Gold yearly pivot points from 2013 forecasted significant turning points
  • Gold is approaching the 2014 central yearly pivot point at 1360.82
In this continuing series highlighting the seldom mentioned topic of yearly pivots, gold will be covered in detail. We will look at how yearly pivots in 2013 marked significant turning points in gold as well as the levels to watch out for with the new set of 2014 yearly pivots.

The year 2013 was not very kind to the shiny metal. Gold plunged 27% or just over $450/oz. in one of the biggest declines in many years. However, after hitting a three year low of 1178.86 back in December 2013, gold has managed to crawl back higher in 2014.Yearly pivots marked gold's decline with pinpoint accuracy.

Gold 2013 Yearly Pivots :



The sudden and severe $141/oz. drop in gold in the beginning of 2013 caught many gold traders off guard. However, traders who watched gold yearly pivots knew ahead of time that a close below the central pivot (P) at $1661.75/oz.

Notice in the chart above how price hugged the central pivot red line. The close below the yearly central pivot marked the beginning of a year-long decline to 3-year lows.

Even after reaching a low of 1208, the subsequent gold rally in July was stopped dead in its tracks at the S2 yearly pivot at $1392.79/oz. Gold went on to make the low of the year at 1179.86. Yearly pivots were useful for determining the beginning of the decline as well as locating areas to re-enter or add more to a position. You may now be wondering what the 2014 yearly pivots have in store for gold.

Gold 2014 Yearly Pivots :



Gold Yearly Pivot Trading Plan

Gold starts 2014 higher than where it left off in 2013. Crossing above the psychologically important $1300 level, gold is a long way from the lofty highs in the $1900 area. The first major yearly pivot hurdle is just $40.00 away at the central yearly pivot at 1360.82. This was also the highs of October 2013. Pivot points often act as magnets “pulling” price up or down to the nearest pivot.

The current weekly Japanese candlestick pattern is an indecision doji/spinning top. This gives us a “fork in the road” or decision point; price could break higher or lower from this point and continue to trend in the breakout direction. A new candle is due out next Monday and if it can break above the 1332 high of the doji candle could lead to an explosive move toward the R1 pivot and beyond. Moves above the central pivot are regarded as bullish.

On the other hand, a break below 1307.26 low of the weekly doji candle opens move toward the lows of 2013 in the 1186 area and a test of the S1 yearly pivot at 1024.25. Remember that yearly pivots represent potential support and resistance. Using the pivot point calculation on the high low and close of 2013, these levels can be created. Yearly pivot levels can help traders determine price targets for taking profit as well as entry and stop areas.


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