Forecast and levels for Crude Oil - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.23 13:11

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bounced to bullish intra-day reversal; daily bullish ranging for direction; 63.39/63.68 levels are the keys

2017-11-22 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is 1.9M
  • forecast data is -1.4M
  • actual data is -1.9M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M5: bounced to bullish reversal. The price was bounced from 62.58 support level to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal.

If the price breaks 63.39 resistance level to above on M5 close bar so the bullish trend will be started.
If the price breaks 62.58 support level to below on M5 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


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Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish ranging within 63.68 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 61.06 support level for the secondary correction to be started.


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Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.28 15:25

Crude Oil - daily ranging bullish; 63.96 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is ranging within 63.96 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing with 64.63 bullish tarhet to re-enter and 61.06 support level for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "Crude oil: In recent weeks large speculators have been buying oil contracts at an extremely aggressive pace, bringing the net-long position to a new record last week of 596k contracts from 417k in the middle of last month. A modest reduction was seen in the most recent report, with the net-long declining by over 19k to 577k contracts. "
  • "The sheer size of the position is reason for concern for oil bulls, and the sharp run-up in a relatively short period of time makes price vulnerable to a pullback. It would be a healthy development, if crude is to continue higher, that we see a reduction in the position without too much technical damage done in the process. But for now, risk of a reversal and/or period of volatile trade at this time is elevated as positioning has reached an unstable level. This should favor the short-term trader looking for two-way price action to take advantage of."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicators (free to download):


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.01 10:09

Crude Oil - weekly bullish eranging within narrow levels for direction (based on the article)

Weekly price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the narrow 64.63/61.16 s/r levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The 173rd OPEC Meeting concluded with the expected decision to extend the OPEC production cuts for an additional 9 months (January 2018 through December 2018) but during the 3rd OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting, ministers added a provision to review the production cuts based on market fundamentals at the June 2018 OPEC meeting.  The extension was the outcome that Saudi oil minister Khalid al Falih wanted and the provision to review was clearly a concession to Russian oil minister Alexander Novak's position."
  • "Following news of the OPEC agreement, the price of both Brent and WTI rose, but as the non-OPEC component of the meeting began prices started to decline. As the ministers delivered their final remarks prices again rose as all parties remained committed to the production cuts."

==========

The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.13 17:34

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day breakdown; daily bullish ranging to 61.06 bearish reversal target

2017-12-13 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -5.6M
  • forecast data is -3.6M
  • actual data is -5.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil M15: bearish breakdown. The price broke 62.98 support level to below for the bearish breakdown trend to be continuing with 62.61 target to re-enter.

If the price breaks 63.63 resistance level to above on M15 close bar so the bullish reversal will be started.
If the price breaks 62.61 support level to below on M15 close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing.
If not so the price will be on ranging within the levels.


==========

Crude Oil Daily: bullish ranging to 61.06 bearish reversal target. Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart within 64.63 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 61.06 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.


============

Chart #1.
The chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Chart #2.
The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.24 06:19

Crude Oil - bullish ranging; 65.80 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 64.90 to above for 65.80 target to re-enter.


  • "Crude oil prices have quietly rallied while the Bitcoin moves steal the headlines. It appears as though a minor degree triangle pattern has ended as crude oil now presses recent highs. If our Elliott Wave count is correct, this move higher is a terminal wave that once it exhausts, could be retraced early in the new year. It appears crude oil prices are thrusting higher out of a triangle pattern in a fifth wave of an impulse wave. Using wave 5 measuring techniques one wave relationship shows up near $60.60 per barrel. Look for this wave 5 to subdivide in motive fashion (either as an impulse or as a diagonal). We can also anticipate divergence appearing on an oscillator like Relative Strength Index, which is typical in a fifth wave. We feel confident in the wave 4 triangle interpretation because in an impulse, wave 4 tends to alternate with wave 2 in the type of wave. Wave 2 was a zigzag wave and wave 4 is a triangle, which fits that guideline of alternation."
  • "Bottom line, we are in a terminal or ending wave of the 4 months advance. Crude oil price may find a terminal point near $60.60 though it does not have to."

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.27 15:00

Oil Price Forecast For 2018, 2019, 2020 And 2021 (based on the article)



  • Brent oil price forecast for January 2018.
    In the beginning price at 68.40 Dollars. High price 71.19, low 68.40. The average for the month 69.53. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 70.14, change for January 2.5%.
  • Oil Price forecast for February 2018.
    In the beginning price at 70.14 Dollars. High price 75.39, low 70.14. The average for the month 72.49. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 74.28, change for February 5.9%.
  • Brent oil price forecast for March 2018.
    In the beginning price at 74.28 Dollars. High price 80.07, low 74.28. The average for the month 76.88. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 78.89, change for March 6.2%.
  • Oil Price forecast for April 2018.
    In the beginning price at 78.89 Dollars. High price 85.04, low 78.89. The average for the month 81.65. The Oil Price forecast at the end of the month 83.78, change for April 6.2%.


============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:



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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.11 09:20

Crude Oil - bullish breakout; 70 resistance is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 69.34 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "In a world where crypto currency momentum seems to defy physics, Crude Oil’s bid does not appear to be purely speculative fervor. Instead, there has been a steady drop in U.S. crude stockpiles backed by refiner demand. The drop in stockpiles has lead to backwardation where front month futures contracts are receiving a premium over later dated future contracts. In a commodity market, backwardation is a way of using the financial market’s collective intelligence to signal market tightening, which is backed by OPEC’s production cuts and steady global demand."
  • "The December 2018 Brent Crude Oil futures contract is currently at a $3.63/bbl premium to the December 2019 contact. The demand is aligning with price support. The irony of the current state of the Oil market is that things are looking too good to some. Iran's Oil Minister, Bijan Namda Zanganeh recently said, "Members of [OPEC] are not keen on increased Brent crude prices above $60/bbl because of shale oil." Prices of Brent Oil's front month contract reached an intraday high of $69.37 on Wednesday."
  • "The message behind the weekly inventory report out of the United States was that the overall petrol glut is continuing to shrink, and has done so for the eighth straight week. The US Crude Inventory drop registered at 4.95m barrels per the EIA. Of course, traders are often looking for the next item to round the corner, and that is looking to individual crude products that refiners have been so aggressively turning into usable products, which are not being sold downstream as fast as an oil bull would hope."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.26 15:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 

2018-01-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 3.2%
  • forecast data is 3.0%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 12:32

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)


Crude Oil - "The key driver of this move has been supply constraint, as mandated by the OPEC/Non-OPEC agreement that was extended in May of last year and initially announced in November of the year prior. And while that initial announcement seemed to do little to excite bulls, the extension last year came-in right around the time that the U.S. Dollar started to move in a near-vertical fashion (lower), and this has added a considerable amount of assistance in driving those topside trends in Oil prices. As the U.S. Dollar has continued to weaken, Oil prices have moved-higher and this has helped to push inflationary forces in many economies that aren’t used to seeing that, namely out of Europe and Japan."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


Sergey Golubev
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108388
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.02 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CADXAU/USD and Brent Crude OilNon-Farm Payrolls

2018-02-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 160K
  • forecast data is 181K
  • actual data is 200K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDCAD

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

XAUUSD

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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Brent Crude Oil

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



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