Developing a Replay System (Part 69): Getting the Time Right (II)
Today we will look at why we need the iSpread feature. At the same time, we will understand how the system informs us about the remaining time of the bar when there is not a single tick available for it. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models
In the article, an attempt is made to build a trading EA for predicting exchange rate quotes. The algorithm is based on classical classification models - logistic and probit regression. The likelihood ratio criterion is used as a filter for trading signals.
Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA)
Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA) is an innovative optimization method inspired by restaurant business management principles. Unlike traditional approaches, SRA does not discard weak solutions, but improves them by combining with elements of successful ones. The algorithm shows competitive results and offers a fresh perspective on balancing exploration and exploitation in optimization problems.
Spurious Regressions in Python
Spurious regressions occur when two time series exhibit a high degree of correlation purely by chance, leading to misleading results in regression analysis. In such cases, even though variables may appear to be related, the correlation is coincidental and the model may be unreliable.
Anarchic Society Optimization (ASO) algorithm
In this article, we will get acquainted with the Anarchic Society Optimization (ASO) algorithm and discuss how an algorithm based on the irrational and adventurous behavior of participants in an anarchic society (an anomalous system of social interaction free from centralized power and various kinds of hierarchies) is able to explore the solution space and avoid the traps of local optimum. The article presents a unified ASO structure applicable to both continuous and discrete problems.
Causal analysis of time series using transfer entropy
In this article, we discuss how statistical causality can be applied to identify predictive variables. We will explore the link between causality and transfer entropy, as well as present MQL5 code for detecting directional transfers of information between two variables.
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part I): Process chemistry in optimization
In the first part of this article, we will dive into the world of chemical reactions and discover a new approach to optimization! Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) uses principles derived from the laws of thermodynamics to achieve efficient results. We will reveal the secrets of decomposition, synthesis and other chemical processes that became the basis of this innovative method.
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part X): External resource-based interface
Today, we are harnessing the capabilities of MQL5 to utilize external resources—such as images in the BMP format—to create a uniquely styled home interface for the Trading Administrator Panel. The strategy demonstrated here is particularly useful when packaging multiple resources, including images, sounds, and more, for streamlined distribution. Join us in this discussion as we explore how these features are implemented to deliver a modern and visually appealing interface for our New_Admin_Panel EA.
Biological neuron for forecasting financial time series
We will build a biologically correct system of neurons for time series forecasting. The introduction of a plasma-like environment into the neural network architecture creates a kind of "collective intelligence," where each neuron influences the system's operation not only through direct connections, but also through long-range electromagnetic interactions. Let's see how the neural brain modeling system will perform in the market.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 12): Orders
This article which is part of a series that follows Category Theory implementation of Graphs in MQL5, delves in Orders. We examine how concepts of Order-Theory can support monoid sets in informing trade decisions by considering two major ordering types.
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 8): Rolling Windows Eigenvector Comparison for Portfolio Rebalancing
This article proposes using Rolling Windows Eigenvector Comparison for early imbalance diagnostics and portfolio rebalancing in a mean-reversion statistical arbitrage strategy based on cointegrated stocks. It contrasts this technique with traditional In-Sample/Out-of-Sample ADF validation, showing that eigenvector shifts can signal the need for rebalancing even when IS/OOS ADF still indicates a stationary spread. While the method is intended mainly for live trading monitoring, the article concludes that eigenvector comparison could also be integrated into the scoring system—though its actual contribution to performance remains to be tested.
Tracking Account Dynamics: Balance, Equity, and Floating P/L Visualization in MQL5
Create a custom MT5 indicator that processes the entire deal history and plots starting balance, balance, equity, and floating P/L as continuous curves. It updates per bar, aggregates positions across symbols, and avoids external dependencies through local caching. Use it to inspect equity–balance divergence, realized vs. unrealized results, and the timing of risk deployment.
Hybridization of population algorithms. Sequential and parallel structures
Here we will dive into the world of hybridization of optimization algorithms by looking at three key types: strategy mixing, sequential and parallel hybridization. We will conduct a series of experiments combining and testing relevant optimization algorithms.
An introduction to Receiver Operating Characteristic curves
ROC curves are graphical representations used to evaluate the performance of classifiers. Despite ROC graphs being relatively straightforward, there exist common misconceptions and pitfalls when using them in practice. This article aims to provide an introduction to ROC graphs as a tool for practitioners seeking to understand classifier performance evaluation.
Ordinal Encoding for Nominal Variables
In this article, we discuss and demonstrate how to convert nominal predictors into numerical formats that are suitable for machine learning algorithms, using both Python and MQL5.
Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 3): Enhanced Data Visualization
In this article, we will perform Enhanced Data Visualization by going beyond basic charts by incorporating features like interactivity, layered data, and dynamic elements, enabling traders to explore trends, patterns, and correlations more effectively.
Market Simulation (Part 02): Cross Orders (II)
Unlike what was done in the previous article, here we will test the selection option using an Expert Advisor. Although this is not a final solution yet, it will be enough for now. With the help of this article, you will be able to understand how to implement one of the possible solutions.
Developing a Replay System (Part 68): Getting the Time Right (I)
Today we will continue working on getting the mouse pointer to tell us how much time is left on a bar during periods of low liquidity. Although at first glance it seems simple, in reality this task is much more difficult. This involves some obstacles that we will have to overcome. Therefore, it is important that you have a good understanding of the material in this first part of this subseries in order to understand the following parts.
Causal inference in time series classification problems
In this article, we will look at the theory of causal inference using machine learning, as well as the custom approach implementation in Python. Causal inference and causal thinking have their roots in philosophy and psychology and play an important role in our understanding of reality.
From Novice to Expert: Market Periods Synchronizer
In this discussion, we introduce a Higher-to-Lower Timeframe Synchronizer tool designed to solve the problem of analyzing market patterns that span across higher timeframe periods. The built-in period markers in MetaTrader 5 are often limited, rigid, and not easily customizable for non-standard timeframes. Our solution leverages the MQL5 language to develop an indicator that provides a dynamic and visual way to align higher timeframe structures within lower timeframe charts. This tool can be highly valuable for detailed market analysis. To learn more about its features and implementation, I invite you to join the discussion.
Brain Storm Optimization algorithm (Part I): Clustering
In this article, we will look at an innovative optimization method called BSO (Brain Storm Optimization) inspired by a natural phenomenon called "brainstorming". We will also discuss a new approach to solving multimodal optimization problems the BSO method applies. It allows finding multiple optimal solutions without the need to pre-determine the number of subpopulations. We will also consider the K-Means and K-Means++ clustering methods.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 52): Accelerator Oscillator
The Accelerator Oscillator is another Bill Williams Indicator that tracks price momentum's acceleration and not just its pace. Although much like the Awesome oscillator we reviewed in a recent article, it seeks to avoid the lagging effects by focusing more on acceleration as opposed to just speed. We examine as always what patterns we can get from this and also what significance each could have in trading via a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Applying Localized Feature Selection in Python and MQL5
This article explores a feature selection algorithm introduced in the paper 'Local Feature Selection for Data Classification' by Narges Armanfard et al. The algorithm is implemented in Python to build binary classifier models that can be integrated with MetaTrader 5 applications for inference.
Data Science and ML (Part 44): Forex OHLC Time series Forecasting using Vector Autoregression (VAR)
Explore how Vector Autoregression (VAR) models can forecast Forex OHLC (Open, High, Low, and Close) time series data. This article covers VAR implementation, model training, and real-time forecasting in MetaTrader 5, helping traders analyze interdependent currency movements and improve their trading strategies.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (14): Multi Objective Timeseries Forecasting with STF
Spatial Temporal Fusion which is using both ‘space’ and time metrics in modelling data is primarily useful in remote-sensing, and a host of other visual based activities in gaining a better understanding of our surroundings. Thanks to a published paper, we take a novel approach in using it by examining its potential to traders.
Analyzing weather impact on currencies of agricultural countries using Python
What is the relationship between weather and Forex? Classical economic theory has long ignored the influence of such factors as weather on market behavior. But everything has changed. Let's try to find connections between the weather conditions and the position of agricultural currencies on the market.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 47): Reinforcement Learning with Temporal Difference
Temporal Difference is another algorithm in reinforcement learning that updates Q-Values basing on the difference between predicted and actual rewards during agent training. It specifically dwells on updating Q-Values without minding their state-action pairing. We therefore look to see how to apply this, as we have with previous articles, in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Forex Arbitrage Trading: Relationship Assessment Panel
This article presents the development of an arbitrage analysis panel in MQL5. How to get fair exchange rates on Forex in different ways? Create an indicator to obtain deviations of market prices from fair exchange rates, as well as to assess the benefits of arbitrage ways of exchanging one currency for another (as in triangular arbitrage).
Ensemble methods to enhance classification tasks in MQL5
In this article, we present the implementation of several ensemble classifiers in MQL5 and discuss their efficacy in varying situations.
Mutual information as criteria for Stepwise Feature Selection
In this article, we present an MQL5 implementation of Stepwise Feature Selection based on the mutual information between an optimal predictor set and a target variable.
Artificial Tribe Algorithm (ATA)
The article provides a detailed discussion of the key components and innovations of the ATA optimization algorithm, which is an evolutionary method with a unique dual behavior system that adapts depending on the situation. ATA combines individual and social learning while using crossover for explorations and migration to find solutions when stuck in local optima.
Role of random number generator quality in the efficiency of optimization algorithms
In this article, we will look at the Mersenne Twister random number generator and compare it with the standard one in MQL5. We will also find out the influence of the random number generator quality on the results of optimization algorithms.
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution of Social Groups (ESG)
We will consider the principle of constructing multi-population algorithms. As an example of this type of algorithm, we will have a look at the new custom algorithm - Evolution of Social Groups (ESG). We will analyze the basic concepts, population interaction mechanisms and advantages of this algorithm, as well as examine its performance in optimization problems.
Population optimization algorithms: Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm
In this article, we will consider another optimization algorithm inspired by inanimate nature - Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present a new optimization algorithm based on the principles of physics and mechanics.
Developing a Replay System (Part 65): Playing the service (VI)
In this article, we will look at how to implement and solve the mouse pointer issue when using it in conjunction with a replay/simulation application. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 8): Adding Volume Integration for Deeper Market Profile Analysis
In this article, we enhance the hybrid Time Price Opportunity (TPO) market profile indicator in MQL5 by integrating volume data to calculate volume-based point of control, value areas, and volume-weighted average price with customizable highlighting options. The system introduces advanced features like initial balance detection, key level extension lines, split profiles, and alternative TPO characters such as squares or circles for improved visual analysis across multiple timeframes.
Developing a Replay System (Part 52): Things Get Complicated (IV)
In this article, we will change the mouse pointer to enable the interaction with the control indicator to ensure reliable and stable operation.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 33): Gaussian Process Kernels
Gaussian Process Kernels are the covariance function of the Normal Distribution that could play a role in forecasting. We explore this unique algorithm in a custom signal class of MQL5 to see if it could be put to use as a prime entry and exit signal.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 54): Reinforcement Learning with hybrid SAC and Tensors
Soft Actor Critic is a Reinforcement Learning algorithm that we looked at in a previous article, where we also introduced python and ONNX to these series as efficient approaches to training networks. We revisit the algorithm with the aim of exploiting tensors, computational graphs that are often exploited in Python.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 11): Graphs
This article is a continuation in a series that look at Category Theory implementation in MQL5. In here we examine how Graph-Theory could be integrated with monoids and other data structures when developing a close-out strategy to a trading system.