Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5
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Developing a Replay System (Part 72): An Unusual Communication (I)
What we create today will be difficult to understand. Therefore, in this article I will only talk about the initial stage. Please read this article carefully, it is an important prerequisite before we proceed to the next step. The purpose of this material is purely didactic as we will only study and master the presented concepts, without practical application.
The case for using a Composite Data Set this Q4 in weighing SPDR XLY's next performance
We consider XLY, SPDR’s consumer discretionary spending ETF and see if with tools in MetaTrader’s IDE we can sift through an array of data sets in selecting what could work with a forecasting model with a forward outlook of not more than a year.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 19): Naturality Square Induction
We continue our look at natural transformations by considering naturality square induction. Slight restraints on multicurrency implementation for experts assembled with the MQL5 wizard mean we are showcasing our data classification abilities with a script. Principle applications considered are price change classification and thus its forecasting.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 34): Price-Embedding with an Unconventional RBM
Restricted Boltzmann Machines are a form of neural network that was developed in the mid 1980s at a time when compute resources were prohibitively expensive. At its onset, it relied on Gibbs Sampling and Contrastive Divergence in order to reduce dimensionality or capture the hidden probabilities/properties over input training data sets. We examine how Backpropagation can perform similarly when the RBM ‘embeds’ prices for a forecasting Multi-Layer-Perceptron.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 21): Natural Transformations with LDA
This article, the 21st in our series, continues with a look at Natural Transformations and how they can be implemented using linear discriminant analysis. We present applications of this in a signal class format, like in the previous article.
Developing a Replay System (Part 62): Playing the service (III)
In this article, we will begin to address the issue of tick excess that can impact application performance when using real data. This excess often interferes with the correct timing required to construct a one-minute bar in the appropriate window.
The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Combinatorial Algorithm in MQL5
In this article we continue our exploration of the Group Method of Data Handling family of algorithms, with the implementation of the Combinatorial Algorithm along with its refined incarnation, the Combinatorial Selective Algorithm in MQL5.
Developing a Replay System (Part 50): Things Get Complicated (II)
We will solve the chart ID problem and at the same time we will begin to provide the user with the ability to use a personal template for the analysis and simulation of the desired asset. The materials presented here are for didactic purposes only and should in no way be considered as an application for any purpose other than studying and mastering the concepts presented.
Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 1): Selecting a period for analysis
Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.
ALGLIB library optimization methods (Part I)
In this article, we will get acquainted with the ALGLIB library optimization methods for MQL5. The article includes simple and clear examples of using ALGLIB to solve optimization problems, which will make mastering the methods as accessible as possible. We will take a detailed look at the connection of such algorithms as BLEIC, L-BFGS and NS, and use them to solve a simple test problem.
Introduction to MQL5 (Part 31): Mastering API and WebRequest Function in MQL5 (V)
Learn how to use WebRequest and external API calls to retrieve recent candle data, convert each value into a usable type, and save the information neatly in a table format. This step lays the groundwork for building an indicator that visualizes the data in candle format.
Resampling techniques for prediction and classification assessment in MQL5
In this article, we will explore and implement, methods for assessing model quality that utilize a single dataset as both training and validation sets.
Bivariate Copulae in MQL5 (Part 2): Implementing Archimedean copulae in MQL5
In the second installment of the series, we discuss the properties of bivariate Archimedean copulae and their implementation in MQL5. We also explore applying copulae to the development of a simple pairs trading strategy.
Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA): Theory and methods
In this article, we will consider the Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA) developed in 2009. The algorithm is aimed at solving continuous optimization problems. We will look at how ABHA draws inspiration from the behavior of a bee colony, where each bee has a unique role that helps them find resources more efficiently.
MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 12): Enhancing the Correlation Matrix Dashboard with Interactivity
In this article, we enhance the correlation matrix dashboard in MQL5 with interactive features like panel dragging, minimizing/maximizing, hover effects on buttons and timeframes, and mouse event handling for improved user experience. We add sorting of symbols by average correlation strength in ascending/descending modes, toggle between correlation and p-value views, and incorporate light/dark theme switching with dynamic color updates.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 32): Regularization
Regularization is a form of penalizing the loss function in proportion to the discrete weighting applied throughout the various layers of a neural network. We look at the significance, for some of the various regularization forms, this can have in test runs with a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Self Optimizing Expert Advisors in MQL5 (Part 12): Building Linear Classifiers Using Matrix Factorization
This article explores the powerful role of matrix factorization in algorithmic trading, specifically within MQL5 applications. From regression models to multi-target classifiers, we walk through practical examples that demonstrate how easily these techniques can be integrated using built-in MQL5 functions. Whether you're predicting price direction or modeling indicator behavior, this guide lays a strong foundation for building intelligent trading systems using matrix methods.
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 7): Scoring System 2
This article describes two additional scoring criteria used for selection of baskets of stocks to be traded in mean-reversion strategies, more specifically, in cointegration based statistical arbitrage. It complements a previous article where liquidity and strength of the cointegration vectors were presented, along with the strategic criteria of timeframe and lookback period, by including the stability of the cointegration vectors and the time to mean reversion (half-time). The article includes the commented results of a backtest with the new filters applied and the files required for its reproduction are also provided.
Market Simulation (Part 13): Sockets (VII)
When we develop something in xlwings or any other package that allows reading and writing directly to Excel, we must note that all programs, functions, or procedures execute and then complete their task. They do not remain in a loop, no matter how hard we try to do things differently.
Analyzing binary code of prices on the exchange (Part II): Converting to BIP39 and writing GPT model
Continuing tries to decipher price movements... What about linguistic analysis of the "market dictionary" that we get by converting the binary price code to BIP39? In this article, we will delve into an innovative approach to exchange data analysis and consider how modern natural language processing techniques can be applied to the market language.
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 3): Database Setup
This article presents a sample MQL5 Service implementation for updating a newly created database used as source for data analysis and for trading a basket of cointegrated stocks. The rationale behind the database design is explained in detail and the data dictionary is documented for reference. MQL5 and Python scripts are provided for the database creation, schema initialization, and market data insertion.
Developing a Replay System (Part 29): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (III)
After improving the C_Mouse class, we can focus on creating a class designed to create a completely new framework fr our analysis. We will not use inheritance or polymorphism to create this new class. Instead, we will change, or better said, add new objects to the price line. That's what we will do in this article. In the next one, we will look at how to change the analysis. All this will be done without changing the code of the C_Mouse class. Well, actually, it would be easier to achieve this using inheritance or polymorphism. However, there are other methods to achieve the same result.
Developing a Replay System (Part 46): Chart Trade Project (V)
Tired of wasting time searching for that very file that you application needs in order to work? How about including everything in the executable? This way you won't have to search for the things. I know that many people use this form of distribution and storage, but there is a much more suitable way. At least as far as the distribution of executable files and their storage is concerned. The method that will be presented here can be very useful, since you can use MetaTrader 5 itself as an excellent assistant, as well as MQL5. Furthermore, it is not that difficult to understand.
Developing a Replay System (Part 40): Starting the second phase (I)
Today we'll talk about the new phase of the replay/simulator system. At this stage, the conversation will become truly interesting and quite rich in content. I strongly recommend that you read the article carefully and use the links provided in it. This will help you understand the content better.
Developing a Replay System (Part 43): Chart Trade Project (II)
Most people who want or dream of learning to program don't actually have a clue what they're doing. Their activity consists of trying to create things in a certain way. However, programming is not about tailoring suitable solutions. Doing it this way can create more problems than solutions. Here we will be doing something more advanced and therefore different.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay
Replay buffers in Reinforcement Learning are particularly important with off-policy algorithms like DQN or SAC. This then puts the spotlight on the sampling process of this memory-buffer. While default options with SAC, for instance, use random selection from this buffer, Prioritized Experience Replay buffers fine tune this by sampling from the buffer based on a TD-score. We review the importance of Reinforcement Learning, and, as always, examine just this hypothesis (not the cross-validation) in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Population optimization algorithms: Boids Algorithm
The article considers Boids algorithm based on unique examples of animal flocking behavior. In turn, the Boids algorithm serves as the basis for the creation of the whole class of algorithms united under the name "Swarm Intelligence".
Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets
Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
Market Simulation (Part 04): Creating the C_Orders Class (I)
In this article, we will start creating the C_Orders class to be able to send orders to the trading server. We'll do this little by little, as our goal is to explain in detail how this will happen through the messaging system.
Developing a Replay System (Part 67): Refining the Control Indicator
In this article, we'll look at what can be achieved with a little code refinement. This refinement is aimed at simplifying our code, making more use of MQL5 library calls and, above all, making it much more stable, secure and easy to use in other projects that we may develop in the future.
Capital management in trading and the trader's home accounting program with a database
How can a trader manage capital? How can a trader and investor keep track of expenses, income, assets, and liabilities? I am not just going to introduce you to accounting software; I am going to show you a tool that might become your reliable financial navigator in the stormy sea of trading.
Population optimization algorithms: Spiral Dynamics Optimization (SDO) algorithm
The article presents an optimization algorithm based on the patterns of constructing spiral trajectories in nature, such as mollusk shells - the spiral dynamics optimization (SDO) algorithm. I have thoroughly revised and modified the algorithm proposed by the authors. The article will consider the necessity of these changes.
Animal Migration Optimization (AMO) algorithm
The article is devoted to the AMO algorithm, which models the seasonal migration of animals in search of optimal conditions for life and reproduction. The main features of AMO include the use of topological neighborhood and a probabilistic update mechanism, which makes it easy to implement and flexible for various optimization tasks.
Ensemble methods to enhance numerical predictions in MQL5
In this article, we present the implementation of several ensemble learning methods in MQL5 and examine their effectiveness across different scenarios.
Most notable Artificial Cooperative Search algorithm modifications (ACSm)
Here we will consider the evolution of the ACS algorithm: three modifications aimed at improving the convergence characteristics and the algorithm efficiency. Transformation of one of the leading optimization algorithms. From matrix modifications to revolutionary approaches regarding population formation.
Creating a Trading Administrator Panel in MQL5 (Part XI): Modern feature communications interface (I)
Today, we are focusing on the enhancement of the Communications Panel messaging interface to align with the standards of modern, high-performing communication applications. This improvement will be achieved by updating the CommunicationsDialog class. Join us in this article and discussion as we explore key insights and outline the next steps in advancing interface programming using MQL5.
Economic forecasts: Exploring the Python potential
How to use World Bank economic data for forecasts? What happens when you combine AI models and economics?
Quantitative Analysis of Trends: Collecting Statistics in Python
What is quantitative trend analysis in the Forex market? We collect statistics on trends, their magnitude and distribution across the EURUSD currency pair. How quantitative trend analysis can help you create a profitable trading expert advisor.
Developing a Replay System (Part 33): Order System (II)
Today we will continue to develop the order system. As you will see, we will be massively reusing what has already been shown in other articles. Nevertheless, you will receive a small reward in this article. First, we will develop a system that can be used with a real trading server, both from a demo account or from a real one. We will make extensive use of the MetaTrader 5 platform, which will provide us with all the necessary support from the beginning.
Swap Arbitrage in Forex: Building a Synthetic Portfolio and Generating a Consistent Swap Flow
Do you want to know how to benefit from the difference in interest rates? This article considers how to use swap arbitrage in Forex to earn stable profit every night, creating a portfolio that is resistant to market fluctuations.