Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

icon

Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.

Read about the fuzzy logic, digital filters, market profile, Kohonen maps, neural gas and many other tools that can be used for trading.

Add a new article
latest | best
preview
Data Science and ML (Part 34): Time series decomposition, Breaking the stock market down to the core

Data Science and ML (Part 34): Time series decomposition, Breaking the stock market down to the core

In a world overflowing with noisy and unpredictable data, identifying meaningful patterns can be challenging. In this article, we'll explore seasonal decomposition, a powerful analytical technique that helps separate data into its key components: trend, seasonal patterns, and noise. By breaking data down this way, we can uncover hidden insights and work with cleaner, more interpretable information.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 77): New Chart Trade (IV)

Developing a Replay System (Part 77): New Chart Trade (IV)

In this article, we will cover some of the measures and precautions to consider when creating a communication protocol. These are pretty simple and straightforward things, so we won't go into too much detail in this article. But to understand what will happen, you need to understand the content of the article.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution Strategies, (μ,λ)-ES and (μ+λ)-ES

Population optimization algorithms: Evolution Strategies, (μ,λ)-ES and (μ+λ)-ES

The article considers a group of optimization algorithms known as Evolution Strategies (ES). They are among the very first population algorithms to use evolutionary principles for finding optimal solutions. We will implement changes to the conventional ES variants and revise the test function and test stand methodology for the algorithms.
preview
Redefining MQL5 and MetaTrader 5 Indicators

Redefining MQL5 and MetaTrader 5 Indicators

An innovative approach to collecting indicator information in MQL5 enables more flexible and streamlined data analysis by allowing developers to pass custom inputs to indicators for immediate calculations. This approach is particularly useful for algorithmic trading, as it provides enhanced control over the information processed by indicators, moving beyond traditional constraints.
preview
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 25): Preparing for the next phase

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 25): Preparing for the next phase

In this article, we complete the first phase of developing our replay and simulation system. Dear reader, with this achievement I confirm that the system has reached an advanced level, paving the way for the introduction of new functionality. The goal is to enrich the system even further, turning it into a powerful tool for research and development of market analysis.
preview
Royal Flush Optimization (RFO)

Royal Flush Optimization (RFO)

The original Royal Flush Optimization algorithm offers a new approach to solving optimization problems, replacing the classic binary coding of genetic algorithms with a sector-based approach inspired by poker principles. RFO demonstrates how simplifying basic principles can lead to an efficient and practical optimization method. The article presents a detailed analysis of the algorithm and test results.
preview
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 7): Scoring System 2

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 7): Scoring System 2

This article describes two additional scoring criteria used for selection of baskets of stocks to be traded in mean-reversion strategies, more specifically, in cointegration based statistical arbitrage. It complements a previous article where liquidity and strength of the cointegration vectors were presented, along with the strategic criteria of timeframe and lookback period, by including the stability of the cointegration vectors and the time to mean reversion (half-time). The article includes the commented results of a backtest with the new filters applied and the files required for its reproduction are also provided.
preview
Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 4): Big Data Handling

Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 4): Big Data Handling

Exploring advanced techniques to integrate MQL5 with powerful data processing tools, this part focuses on efficient handling of big data to enhance trading analysis and decision-making.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 31): Selecting the Loss Function

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 31): Selecting the Loss Function

Loss Function is the key metric of machine learning algorithms that provides feedback to the training process by quantifying how well a given set of parameters are performing when compared to their intended target. We explore the various formats of this function in an MQL5 custom wizard class.
preview
Singular Spectrum Analysis in MQL5

Singular Spectrum Analysis in MQL5

This article is meant as a guide for those unfamiliar with the concept of Singular Spectrum Analysis and who wish to gain enough understanding to be able to apply the built-in tools available in MQL5.
preview
Dynamic mode decomposition applied to univariate time series in MQL5

Dynamic mode decomposition applied to univariate time series in MQL5

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is a technique usually applied to high-dimensional datasets. In this article, we demonstrate the application of DMD on univariate time series, showing its ability to characterize a series as well as make forecasts. In doing so, we will investigate MQL5's built-in implementation of dynamic mode decomposition, paying particular attention to the new matrix method, DynamicModeDecomposition().
preview
Swap Arbitrage in Forex: Building a Synthetic Portfolio and Generating a Consistent Swap Flow

Swap Arbitrage in Forex: Building a Synthetic Portfolio and Generating a Consistent Swap Flow

Do you want to know how to benefit from the difference in interest rates? This article considers how to use swap arbitrage in Forex to earn stable profit every night, creating a portfolio that is resistant to market fluctuations.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 36): Q-Learning with Markov Chains

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 36): Q-Learning with Markov Chains

Reinforcement Learning is one of the three main tenets in machine learning, alongside supervised learning and unsupervised learning. It is therefore concerned with optimal control, or learning the best long-term policy that will best suit the objective function. It is with this back-drop, that we explore its possible role in informing the learning-process to an MLP of a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
preview
Artificial Ecosystem-based Optimization (AEO) algorithm

Artificial Ecosystem-based Optimization (AEO) algorithm

The article considers a metaheuristic Artificial Ecosystem-based Optimization (AEO) algorithm, which simulates interactions between ecosystem components by creating an initial population of solutions and applying adaptive update strategies, and describes in detail the stages of AEO operation, including the consumption and decomposition phases, as well as different agent behavior strategies. The article introduces the features and advantages of this algorithm.
preview
Chaos optimization algorithm (COA)

Chaos optimization algorithm (COA)

This is an improved chaotic optimization algorithm (COA) that combines the effects of chaos with adaptive search mechanisms. The algorithm uses a set of chaotic maps and inertial components to explore the search space. The article reveals the theoretical foundations of chaotic methods of financial optimization.
preview
MetaTrader 5: Build a Market to Suit Your Strategy — Renko/Range/Volume, Synthetics, and Stress Tests on Custom Symbols

MetaTrader 5: Build a Market to Suit Your Strategy — Renko/Range/Volume, Synthetics, and Stress Tests on Custom Symbols

In this article, we demonstrate how to use API of the MetaTrader 5 custom symbols to transform your terminal into a data constructor for generating timeless Renko, Range, and Equal-Volume charts and assembling synthetic instruments. We will analyze tick aggregation and history modification for stress tests (spread widening, stop level changes) taking into account platform limitations. Besides, you will get some practice of handling CiCustomSymbol and routing orders to a real symbol through the CustomOrder wrapper with ready-made code fragments.
preview
Population optimization algorithms: Bird Swarm Algorithm (BSA)

Population optimization algorithms: Bird Swarm Algorithm (BSA)

The article explores the bird swarm-based algorithm (BSA) inspired by the collective flocking interactions of birds in nature. The different search strategies of individuals in BSA, including switching between flight, vigilance and foraging behavior, make this algorithm multifaceted. It uses the principles of bird flocking, communication, adaptability, leading and following to efficiently find optimal solutions.
preview
MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 26): Integrating Frequency Binning, Entropy, and Chi-Square in Visual Analyzer

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 26): Integrating Frequency Binning, Entropy, and Chi-Square in Visual Analyzer

In this article, we develop a frequency analysis tool in MQL5 that bins price data into histograms, computes entropy for information content, and applies chi-square tests for distribution goodness-of-fit, with interactive logs and statistical panels for market insights. We integrate per-bar or per-tick computation modes, supersampled rendering for smooth visuals, and draggable/resizable canvases with auto-scrolling logs to enhance usability in trading analysis.
preview
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 5): Screening

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 5): Screening

This article proposes an asset screening process for a statistical arbitrage trading strategy through cointegrated stocks. The system starts with the regular filtering by economic factors, like asset sector and industry, and finishes with a list of criteria for a scoring system. For each statistical test used in the screening, a respective Python class was developed: Pearson correlation, Engle-Granger cointegration, Johansen cointegration, and ADF/KPSS stationarity. These Python classes are provided along with a personal note from the author about the use of AI assistants for software development.
preview
Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 02): Dealing with Bars, Ticks, and Overloading Built-in Functions in a Simulator

Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 02): Dealing with Bars, Ticks, and Overloading Built-in Functions in a Simulator

In this article, we introduce functions similar to those provided by the Python-MetaTrader 5 module, providing a simulator with a familiar interface and a custom way of handling bars and ticks internally.
preview
Market Simulation (Part 13): Sockets (VII)

Market Simulation (Part 13): Sockets (VII)

When we develop something in xlwings or any other package that allows reading and writing directly to Excel, we must note that all programs, functions, or procedures execute and then complete their task. They do not remain in a loop, no matter how hard we try to do things differently.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 36): Making Adjustments (II)

Developing a Replay System (Part 36): Making Adjustments (II)

One of the things that can make our lives as programmers difficult is assumptions. In this article, I will show you how dangerous it is to make assumptions: both in MQL5 programming, where you assume that the type will have a certain value, and in MetaTrader 5, where you assume that different servers work the same.
preview
Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 05): Multi-Symbols and Timeframes Strategy Tester

Python-MetaTrader 5 Strategy Tester (Part 05): Multi-Symbols and Timeframes Strategy Tester

This article presents a MetaTrader 5–compatible backtesting workflow that scales across symbols and timeframes. We use HistoryManager to parallelize data collection, synchronize bars and ticks from all timeframes, and run symbol‑isolated OnTick handlers in threads. You will learn how modelling modes affect speed/accuracy, when to rely on terminal data, how to reduce I/O with event‑driven updates, and how to assemble a complete multicurrency trading robot.
preview
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 14): Multiple Strategy Analysis

Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 14): Multiple Strategy Analysis

In this article, we continue our exploration of building an ensemble of trading strategies and using the MT5 genetic optimizer to tune the strategy parameters. Today, we analyzed the data in Python, showing our model could better predict which strategy would outperform, achieving higher accuracy than forecasting market returns directly. However, when we tested our application with its statistical models, our performance levels fell dismally. We subsequently discovered that the genetic optimizer unfortunately favored highly correlated strategies, prompting us to revise our method to keep vote weights fixed and focus optimization on indicator settings instead.
preview
Data label for time series mining (Part 5):Apply and Test in EA Using Socket

Data label for time series mining (Part 5):Apply and Test in EA Using Socket

This series of articles introduces several time series labeling methods, which can create data that meets most artificial intelligence models, and targeted data labeling according to needs can make the trained artificial intelligence model more in line with the expected design, improve the accuracy of our model, and even help the model make a qualitative leap!
preview
The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization

The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization

The article represents a unique research attempt to combine a variety of population algorithms into a single class to simplify the application of optimization methods. This approach not only opens up opportunities for the development of new algorithms, including hybrid variants, but also creates a universal basic test stand. This stand becomes a key tool for choosing the optimal algorithm depending on a specific task.
preview
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part II): Assembling and results

Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part II): Assembling and results

In the second part, we will collect chemical operators into a single algorithm and present a detailed analysis of its results. Let's find out how the Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) method copes with solving complex problems on test functions.
preview
Eagle Strategy (ES)

Eagle Strategy (ES)

Eagle Strategy is an algorithm that mimics the eagle's two-phase hunting strategy: global search via Levy flights using Mantegna method, alternating with intense local exploitation using the firefly algorithm, a mathematically sound approach to balancing exploration and exploitation, and a bioinspired concept that combines two natural phenomena into a single computational method.
preview
Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) algorithm

Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) algorithm

Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) is an innovative method using a binary matrix and multiple dynamic populations based on mutualistic relationships and cooperation to find optimal solutions quickly and accurately. ACS unique approach to predators and prey enables it to achieve excellent results in numerical optimization problems.
preview
One-Dimensional Singular Spectrum Analysis

One-Dimensional Singular Spectrum Analysis

The article examines the theoretical and practical aspects of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method, which is an efficient method of time series analysis that allows one to represent the complex structure of a series as a decomposition into simple components, such as trend, seasonal (periodic) fluctuations and noise.
preview
MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 22): Graphing the Histogram and Probability Mass Function (PMF) of the Binomial Distribution

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 22): Graphing the Histogram and Probability Mass Function (PMF) of the Binomial Distribution

This article develops an interactive MQL5 plot for the binomial distribution, combining a histogram of simulated outcomes with the theoretical probability mass function. It implements mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, percentiles, and confidence intervals, along with configurable themes and labels, and supports dragging, resizing, and live parameter changes. Use it to assess expected wins, likely drawdowns, and confidence ranges when validating trading strategies.
preview
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 7): Selecting a group based on forward period

Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 7): Selecting a group based on forward period

Previously, we evaluated the selection of a group of trading strategy instances, with the aim of improving the results of their joint operation, only on the same time period, in which the optimization of individual instances was carried out. Let's see what happens in the forward period.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 31): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (V)

Developing a Replay System (Part 31): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (V)

We need a timer that can show how much time is left till the end of the replay/simulation run. This may seem at first glance to be a simple and quick solution. Many simply try to adapt and use the same system that the trading server uses. But there's one thing that many people don't consider when thinking about this solution: with replay, and even m ore with simulation, the clock works differently. All this complicates the creation of such a system.
preview
Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 1): Advanced Data analysis and Statistical Processing

Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 1): Advanced Data analysis and Statistical Processing

Integration enables seamless workflow where raw financial data from MQL5 can be imported into data processing packages like Jupyter Lab for advanced analysis including statistical testing.
preview
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 07): Dendrograms

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 07): Dendrograms

Data classification for purposes of analysis and forecasting is a very diverse arena within machine learning and it features a large number of approaches and methods. This piece looks at one such approach, namely Agglomerative Hierarchical Classification.
preview
Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 7): Hybrid Time Price Opportunity (TPO) Market Profiles for Session Analysis

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 7): Hybrid Time Price Opportunity (TPO) Market Profiles for Session Analysis

In this article, we develop a custom indicator in MQL5 for hybrid Time Price Opportunity (TPO) market profiles, supporting multiple session timeframes such as intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, and fixed periods with timezone adjustments. The indicator quantizes prices into a grid, tracks session data including highs, lows, opens, and closes, and calculates key elements like the point of control and value area based on TPO counts. It renders profiles visually on the chart with customizable colors for TPO letters, single prints, value areas, POC, and close markers, enabling detailed session analysis
preview
MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 23): Camera-Controlled, DirectX-Enabled 3D Graphs for Distribution Insights

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 23): Camera-Controlled, DirectX-Enabled 3D Graphs for Distribution Insights

In this article, we advance the binomial distribution graphing tool in MQL5 by integrating DirectX for 3D visualization, enabling switchable 2D/3D modes with camera-controlled rotation, zoom, and auto-fitting for immersive analysis. We render 3D histogram bars, ground planes, and axes alongside the theoretical probability mass function curve, while preserving 2D elements like statistics panels, legends, and customizable themes, gradients, and labels
preview
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 6): Monomorphic Pull-Backs and Epimorphic Push-Outs

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 6): Monomorphic Pull-Backs and Epimorphic Push-Outs

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
preview
Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 10): Enhancing the Footprint Chart with Per-Bar Volume Sentiment Information Box

Creating Custom Indicators in MQL5 (Part 10): Enhancing the Footprint Chart with Per-Bar Volume Sentiment Information Box

The article enhances an MQL5 footprint indicator with a compact box above each candle that summarizes net delta, total volume, and buy/sell percentages. We implement supersampled anti‑aliased rendering, rounded corners via arc and quadrilateral rasterization, and per‑pixel alpha compositing. Supporting utilities include ARGB conversion, scanline fills, and box‑filter downsampling. The box delivers fast sentiment reads that stay legible across zoom levels.
preview
Developing a Replay System (Part 66): Playing the service (VII)

Developing a Replay System (Part 66): Playing the service (VII)

In this article, we will implement the first solution that will allow us to determine when a new bar may appear on the chart. This solution is applicable in a wide variety of situations. Understanding its development will help you grasp several important aspects. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.