Forecast and levels for EURO - page 19

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.13 20:39

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD: Federal Funds Rate

2017-12-13 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.""In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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XAU/USD M5: rrange price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.16 07:48

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, December 17 - December 24 (based on the article)

EUR/USD made a move to the upside but eventually failed to stay there and retreated amid the ECB meeting. What’s next? Final inflation figures and a key German survey stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. Final CPI: Monday, 10:00. A confirmation of these figures is on the cards now.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Tuesday, 9:00. A small tick up to 117.6 is forecast now.
  3. German PPI: Wednesday, 7:00. A more modest rise of 0.2% is predicted now.
  4. Current Account: Wednesday, 9:00. After +37.8 billion in September, the surplus for October carries expectations for a narrower 33.4 billion.
  5. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Wednesday, 7:00. A positive score of 1.6 was seen in November, above expectations. Yet another improvement is projected: 2.1 for December.
  6. Consumer Confidence:  Thursday, 15:00.
  7. German GfK Consumer Climate: Friday, 7:00. A score of 10.7 was reported in this survey back in November and a minor increase to 10.8 is on the cards for December.
  8. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 7:45. The fall is seen as temporary as a jump of 1.5% is on the cards now.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.20 07:26

Danske Bank: 'Firmly Headed' Into 1.20s In 2018 (based on the article)

Weekly price is on bullish ranging market condition located above Ichimoku cloud and within 1.1554 support level for the secondary correction to be started and 1.1961 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.2092 weekly target.


  • "We see risks in EUR/USD tilted to the upside for 2018 as a whole." 
  • "We are long EUR/USD on a 12M horizon via options in 2018."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 
EURUSD_Monthly


In the Monthly chart the resistance level 1.20000 is being backed up strongly by trendlines showing downtrend.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.22 07:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and EUR/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-12-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 
EURUSD Weekly


In the Weekly chart, after the close of the week, EURUSD has completed the formation of triangle below the resistance level of 1.20000.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.24 07:14

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, December 24 - December 31 (based on the article)

EUR/USD traded higher in the last week before the holidays. Will it continue higher in the last week of 2017? We have some inflation figures just before the New Year. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 9:00. The European Central Bank publishes data that it uses in its rate decision, providing further insights about the state of the euro-zone economies.
  2. German CPI: Friday, during the European morning with the final release coming at 13:00. Prices in Europe’s third-largest economy rose by 0.3% in November and its early publication will shape the numbers for all the euro-zone. Draghi’s dovishness is based on poor inflation in the euro-zone. We’ll now get an early look while liquidity is super-low just ahead of the New Years’ Party.
  3. Spanish Flash CPI: Friday, 8:00. The fourth-largest economy in the euro-zone saw a bump up in inflation back in November, with 1.7% y/y. A slide back to 1.5% is on the cards in the first release for December.
  4. Monetary data: Friday, 9:00. M3 Money Supply, or the amount of money in circulation, stood at a stable annual growth rate of 5% y/y. A small drop to 4.9% is on the cards. Growth in private loans stood at 2.8% and is now predicted to pick up to 2.8%. In theory, a higher velocity of money implies higher inflation in the future.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.27 05:37

Euro To Dollar Forecast For 2018, 2019, 2020 And 2021 (based on the article)



  • Euro to Dollar forecast for January 2018.
    "In the beginning rate at 1.190 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.208, low 1.172. The average for the month 1.190. The EUR to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.190, change for January 0.0%."
  • EUR to USD forecast for February 2018.
    "In the beginning rate at 1.190 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.234, low 1.190. The average for the month 1.208. The EUR to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.216, change for February 2.2%."
  • Euro to Dollar forecast for March 2018.
    "In the beginning rate at 1.216 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.217, low 1.181. The average for the month 1.203. The EUR to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.199, change for March -1.4%."
  • EUR to USD forecast for April 2018.
    "In the beginning rate at 1.199 Dollars. High exchange rate 1.207, low 1.171. The average for the month 1.192. The EUR to USD forecast at the end of the month 1.189, change for April -0.8%."


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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

Expecting EURUSD to stay above the level of 1.20000 for more than one day before continuing the long trend. In contrast for September last year, EURUSD just managed to stay for only one day above the level of 1.20000 before reversing its trend.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.05 17:03

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Employment Change

2018-01-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Nonfarm Payrolls]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

USD - Nonfarm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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