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Forecast and levels for EUR/USD - page 10

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 08:18

EUR/USD - daily bullish with 1.1892/1.1688 ranging levels (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 1.1892/1.1688 narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "The Euro has managed to find interim support below the 1.17 figure against the US Dollar but the break of near-term trend support still hints at a downside bias. Prices turned lower as expected after hitting the highest level since January 2015 in the wake of July’s decidedly upbeat US employment statistics."
  • "A daily close below the August 9 low at 1.1688 opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1608. Alternatively, a push above the 1.1875-1.1910 area marked by the 23.6% Fib expansion and the August 2 high paves the way for a test of the 38.2% threshold at 1.1990."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.15 16:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-08-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From marketwatch article :

  • "Sales at U.S. retailers surged in July to the highest level of 2017, aided by strong demand for new autos and Amazon’s Prime Day shopping specials.""Sales at retailers nationwide jumped 0.6% last month, the government said Tuesday. A mysterious decline in spending at the end of the second quarter, meanwhile, vanished after fresh government revisions based on newly incorporated sales data."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events



Victor Ziborov
2253
Victor Ziborov  

On August 2, 2017 the maximum price of EURUSD was 1.19101. After this, there were no serious events. Therefore the price of EURUSD did not go higher. The next event, which can move the price even higher, will occur on September 7. This is the interest rate for the EUR (Minimum Bid Rate). The next event, which can seriously change the situation, is the interest rate for the USD (Federal Funds Rate) on September 20.

Victor Ziborov
2253
Victor Ziborov  
Victor Ziborov:

On August 2, 2017 the maximum price of EURUSD was 1.19101. After this, there were no serious events. Therefore the price of EURUSD did not go higher. The next event, which can move the price even higher, will occur on September 7. This is the interest rate for the EUR (Minimum Bid Rate). The next event, which can seriously change the situation, is the interest rate for the USD (Federal Funds Rate) on September 20.

Therefore, I predict that before September 7 we will have a flat with a range from 1.1640 to 1.1860. The width of the flat is about 200 points. You can apply range trading methods. But after September 7, EURUSD may try to overcome a three-year high (1.19101) or there will be a long-awaited turn down. But this is after September 7, but for now we have a flat.


Victor Ziborov
2253
Victor Ziborov  

The interest rate is USD = 1.25%, and the minimum interest rate is EUR = 0%. That is, take a loan more profitable in EUR. Therefore, speculators buy US shares just for EUR. And that's why EURUSD has been going up for 8 months already. Although the last time the US economy is developing well. Over the past 30 years, the unemployment rate in the US is minimal. It would seem that this should positively play in favor of the USD. However, these indicators have not yet affected the chart of the EURUSD pair.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.16 15:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Residential Building Permits

2017-08-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.28M
  • forecast data is 1.25M
  • actual data is 1.22M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From reuters article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in July amid broad declines in single- and multi-family home construction, suggesting the housing market was struggling to rebound after slumping in the second quarter."
  • "Housing starts declined 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday. June's sales pace was revised down to 1.21 million units from the previously reported 1.22 million units."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.19 10:07

EUR/USD - daily bullish ranging within narrow levels waiting for the strong trend to be started (based on the article)

Price on the daily chart is above Ichimoku cloud in the primary bullish trend by the ranging within narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1905 resistance located far above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 1.1661 support level located on the border of the secondary correction to be started.

Ichimoku cloud is coming to be more closer to the market price and 1.1661 level so the bearish reversal may be started earlier than expected for example.


  • "Last week, trading in EURUSD was dominated by choppy back-n-forth price action. On three different days the euro traded below the prior week’s low of 11689, and each time it rejected lower prices and closed the session with a bounce. Overall, since topping out around the 2010 low near 11900 the euro has been constructively working off overbought conditions. This is viewed as a positive for the intermediate-term outlook, but still holds a bearish tilt in the very short-term."
  • "While the current configuration could be considered a valid ‘bull-flag’, some more chop within the confines of the descending channel (‘bull-flag’) will do some good in terms of building a stronger, more mature pattern. A drop to the April trend-line and lower parallel near the 2016 high of 11616 would make for a good final test of confluent support within the bullish sequence. In the event we see a breakout above the upper parallel, focus will quickly shift towards 11910 and a higher high towards the 2012 low at 12041, and possibly higher."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.19 16:24

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, August 20 - August 27 (based on the article)



EUR/USD was pressured and slipped lower, but did not go far. Will it stay in range?. The upcoming week features the PMIs, key German surveys and Draghi’s highly anticipated speech in Jackson Hole.

  1. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 9:00. The all-European measure stood at 35.6 in July.
  2. Flash PMIs: Wednesday, 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the euro-zone.
  3. Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 14:00. A small increase is expected.
  4. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Thursday, 13:00.
  5. German Final GDP: Friday, 6:00. The German economy enjoyed robust growth and served as a locomotive. The final read will likely confirm the previous one.
  6. German Ifo Business Climate: Friday, 8:00. Another small increase is expected now.
  7. Draghi speaks at Jackson Hole: Friday 19:00. The announcement of Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole already triggered high expectations. The president of the ECB used his 2014 speech in Wyoming to provide significant hints about the central bank’s QE announcement that followed in January 2015. This time, he is expected to hint about the beginning of the end of QE: an announcement of QE tapering to come in the Autumn and to begin in 2018. In the recent rate decision, Draghi stressed that there has been no discussion about tapering but his dovishness did not convince markets. Some expect him to play down expectations also now, in order to halt the rise of the euro. However, the recent strength of the common currency reflects the strength of the economy, and it will be hard for Draghi to change the course, even temporarily.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.22 08:31

EUR/USD - 'We Prefer to Buy' or stronger EURUSD-bullish story (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish trend located above Ichimoku cloud: price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the stronger trend to be started. 

  1. Bearish scenario. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price together with 1.1662 support level to be crossed to below for the secondary correction to be started with the good possibility to the bearish reversal in the near future.
  2. Bullish scenario. Schaff Trend Cycle indicator is located below 20 in fully oversold level so the 1.1846 resistance is near to be expected to be broken to above for the bullish trend to be resumed.


  • "Retail trader data shows 24.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 3.17 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Apr 18 when EURUSD traded near 1.07646; price has moved 9.7% higher since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Aug 02 when EURUSD traded near 1.18508. The number of traders net-long is 9.1% lower than yesterday and 20.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 19.2% higher than yesterday and 14.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EURUSD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bullish contrarian trading bias."


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
100224
Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.23 09:54

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-08-23 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 58.1
  • forecast data is 57.7
  • actual data is 59.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

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From official report :

  • "Faster growth of manufacturing output and total new orders was reflected in a rise in the IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI to 59.4 in August, from 58.1 in July. This was the third-highest level in over six years."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Manufacturing PMI news event 


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