Forecast and levels for GBP - page 13

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.10 12:09

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Factory production and range price movement 

2018-07-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing Production]

  • past data is -1.3%
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Manufacturing Production] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "In May 2018, total production was estimated to have decreased by 0.4% compared with April 2018, led by falls in energy supply of 3.2% and mining and quarrying of 4.6%."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Manufacturing Production news event 

GBP/USD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.21 17:06

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD chart by Metatrader 5

GBP/USD - "We remain neutral on GBP at current levels, mainly due to the currency’s recent heavy falls, but note that even though the UK Parliament is due to break for holiday, starting on Wednesday July 25, that a leadership challenge before the recess remains a possibility. To trigger a vote of no confidence in UK PM Theresa May, the Conservative Party’s 1922 Committee must receive 48 letters of no confidence from MPs. According to recent reports the Committee have already received a large number of votes, with one MP, Andrew Bridgen, saying that Brexit rebels are close to the required number of votes, although any leadership would probably take place after the recess."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.24 07:07

GBP/USD - weekly bearish reversal; 1.2957 is the key (based on the article)

GBP/USD weekly chart

  • "The latter-portion of last week saw a strong bounce develop in GBP/USD, and this came after the pair tested below a key psychological level for the first time since last September. As we wrote earlier during the week, the down-trend in the British Pound was very much in-focus as we approached a read of inflation out of the UK for the month of June. Markets were looking for inflation to perk-up to 2.6% after two consecutive months at 2.4%, but the actual print gave us a third straight month at 2.4% to further muddy the water for the Bank of England."
  • "Inflation strength is no longer as prominent, and in the wake of last week's inflation report, prices dipped below the 1.3000 level for the first time since last year. But – as we wrote shortly after, GBP/USD was still very oversold. We looked for two areas of potential resistance may that could’ve opened the door for bearish strategies. But – no resistance showed at either, and prices are now finding a bit of support on the zone that we were looking at that runs from 1.3083-1.3100."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.19 11:56

GBP/USD - Bearish Breakdown (based on the article)

Weekly price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support levels at 1.2722/1.2661 for the bearish trend to be continuing.

GBP/USD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 70.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.39 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 20 when GBPUSD traded near 1.40482; price has moved 9.4% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 7.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.6% lower than yesterday and 9.7% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBPUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.25 07:19

GBP/USD: daily bullish ranging along Senkou Span (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price for now is on secondary ranging moving to be along Senkou Span like to be ready for the bullish trend to be continuig or to the bearish ranging to be started.

GBP/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "It's been a climactic past month of price action in the British Pound. As we walked into the final week of August, GBP/USD was continuing to hold on to the sell-off that had driven the currency for much of the prior four months. Prices had just sunk down to find support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Brexit-move, and this was a more than 1,500 pips away from where the pair had topped-out at in mid-April. There was little by way of positivity at the time."
  • "The first half of August was particularly brutal, when a BoE rate hike early in the month served to only hasten the declines. Sellers remained in-charge as a very uncertain future defined the outlook for the British Pound, and there was little apparent hope as Brexit negotiations drew near. We started to look at bullish setups in GBP/USD in mid-August largely on the basis of just how negative everything had become; looking for prices to pullback in the down-trend after oversold readings began to flash on both Daily and Weekly RSI readings."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.05 16:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and NZD/USDNon-Farm Payrolls

2018-10-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 270K
  • forecast data is 185K
  • actual data is 134K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From forbes article :

  • "The old adage about not judging a book by its cover probably applies to Friday’s September payrolls report. Though the headline jobs growth number slid dramatically, there may be enough to paint a relatively positive picture about the economy."
  • "Most importantly, the report might push back some of the inflation fears that plagued Wall Street on Thursday. While payrolls rose a relatively muted 134,000 during the month, wages climbed only 2.8% year over year. That was down from 2.9% in August and basically in line with analysts’ expectations. Going into the report, there was a lot of concern that if wages rose faster than in August, the market might interpret that as a sign of the economy getting too hot. Judging from Friday’s data, it doesn’t look like there’s any need to turn up the air conditioning."
  • "Looking deeper into the data, the government upwardly revised job growth for both July and August, meaning that combined growth in those two months is now 87,000 above the previous mark. In August, a massive 270,000 jobs were created, while July was subdued at 165,000 but up nearly 20,000 from the previous report."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

============

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

NZD/USD M1: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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GBP show high impact events on next week.

FOREX IN WORLD, 2018.10.28 13:14

GBP show high impact events on thursday next week. dont trade with GBP pairs. its toomuch risky.

FOREX IN WORLD
354
FOREX IN WORLD  
It is great.
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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The Pound’s Pain May Finally Be Coming to an End

rafat darwish, 2018.11.08 14:31

What the Brexit referendum took away from the pound, a divorce deal may give back. Aberdeen Standard Investments is betting that sterling could climb to $1.50 -- a level not seen since the 2016 vote -- within three months of a divorce agreement. That would mark a gain of 15 percent from the currency’s current level of about $1.31, a feat only seen twice in the past 50 years: the recovery from the 2008 credit crunch and the 1987 global stock crash. The pound has already gained 3 percent this month as signs emerge of a potential draft Brexit agreement. A pact with the European Union would see Britain embark on a two-year exit 



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.03 20:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and AUD/USD: United States Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

2018-12-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 115th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The November PMI® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 62.1 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the October reading of 57.4 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase compared to the October reading of 59.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.4 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 56.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62.5 percent, a 1.3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 63.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the October reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.7 percent, a 10.9-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 71.6 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 33rd consecutive month."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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