Forecast and levels for GBP - page 15

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.21 06:27

GBP/USD - Cable Pulls Back After FOMC Minutes; 1.31 is the key (based on the article)

GBP/USD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The British Pound is pulling back after testing above the 1.3100 level earlier this morning. This capped a strong topside run that showed up after the print of a fresh low less than a week ago. The month of January brought a stretch of strength into GBPUSD that likely caught many by surprise, especially considering the way that the year started for the pair: GBPUSD put in a rather large drop on January 3rd, slipping below 1.2500 temporarily as bears made a push. But the rest of January was marked by recovery, as GBPUSD climbed back above the 1.3000 psychological level to test above 1.3200."
  • "As looked at last week, prices began soften from that bullish theme in the final week of January. And that pullback ran for more than a couple of weeks as GBPUSD tested below the 50% marker of the January bullish run. But since then, buyers have made a pronounced entrance back into the equation, particularly over the past two days of price action, helping to firm prices back above the 1.3000-handle."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.02 06:30

GBP/AUD - Brexit Referendum Levels for the Long-Term Bullish Reversal; 1.8728 is the key (based on the article)

GBPAUD monthly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Aussie pair that arguably made the most amount of progress last week, rising almost 2%, was GBP/AUD. It added to an impressive bullish push that began two weeks ago, as anticipated. Yet, it was unable to push beyond critical resistance at 1.8732. In addition to this past week, this area was tested back in October and then in early January. It is preventing GBP/AUD from achieving its highest daily close since June 2016, the month of the Brexit Referendum.."
  • "Arguably, sustaining this momentum should require major fundamental support. But there are numerous uncertainties that remain for the British Pound ahead as pushing back the divorce would continue keeping the markets in suspense. Meanwhile, the sentiment-linked Australian Dollar is being primarily driven by volatile risk trends.."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.12 12:09

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2019-03-12 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From english.mubasher.info article :

  • "The UK economic growth picked up steam in January after shrinking by the end of last year, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday. The UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% last January, after declining 0.4% in the final month of last year. The UK’s service, manufacturing and construction sectors all saw their output growing during the first month of this year."
  • "Across the latest three months, growth remained weak with falls in manufacture of metal products, cars and construction repair work all dampening economic growth," the ONS's head of national accounts Rob Kent-Smith said.

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.19 12:40

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Unemployment Rate and range price movement 

2019-03-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 month.

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From official report :

  • "The UK employment rate was estimated at 76.1%, higher than for a year earlier (75.3%) and the highest figure on record."
  • "The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%; it has not been lower since November 1974 to January 1975."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Unemployment Rate news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Unemployment Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.20 11:36

GBP/USD - 48% of Traders Are Net-Long; 1.33 is the key (based on the article)

GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Retail trader data shows 48.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.08 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.2% higher than yesterday and 2.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.8% higher than yesterday and 22.3% higher from last week."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.20 14:27

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2019-03-20 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in February 2019, unchanged from January 2019."
  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.9% in February 2019, up from 1.8% in January 2019."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.28 06:56

The Bank of England: A Forex Trader’s Guide (based on the article

WHAT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE)?

Established in 1694, the Bank of England is the banker to, and owned by, the British government but is independent when setting monetary policy. Its roles include the setting of monetary policy - which includes targeting interest rates and using other tools to stimulate or contract the economy - producing the UK’s bank notes, supervising some bank payment systems, and ensuring the stability and safety of the financial system.

For traders, the BOE’s setting of monetary policy is a key factor to consider as it can have a big impact on the financial markets. Other factors, like the independence of the central bank are also important but are more prevalent issues in emerging market economies.

KEY ECONOMIC MANDATES OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND

According to the Bank of England, their two core purposes or mandates are:
1) Monetary stability - which is price stability or inflation
2) Financial stability - which is the stability and health of the economy 

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report:

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report



HOW BOE INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE POUND

Interest rate impact on the Pound

This is the general principle for how interest rates affect the Pound and stock market, although they sometimes react differently:

  • Higher interest rate expectations increase the strength of the Pound (GBP) and negatively affect equity values.
  • Lower interest rate expectations decrease the strength of the Pound (GBP) and positively affect equity values.

Interest rate impact on the economy

The Bank of England lowers interest rates when it is trying to stimulate the economy (GDP) and increases interest rates when it is trying to contain inflation caused by an economy operating above potential (overheating).

Lower interest rates stimulate an economy in a few ways:

  • Businesses can borrow money and invest in projects that will receive more than the risk borrowing rate.
  • When interest rates are lower the stock market is discounted at a lower rate, leading to an appreciation in stock market values which causes a wealth effect.
  • People invest their money into the economy (stocks and other assets) because they can earn more in these assets than at currently low interest rates.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.29 12:42

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Current Account and range price movement 

2019-03-29 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Current Account]

  • past data is -23.0B
  • forecast data is -22.9B
  • actual data is -23.7B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

==========

From official report :

  • "The UK current account deficit widened by £0.7 billion to £23.7 billion in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2018, or 4.4% of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest deficit recorded since Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016 in both value and percentage of GDP terms."
  • "Annually, the UK current account deficit widened to 3.9% of GDP in 2018, compared with 3.3% in 2017."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Current Account news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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117008
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

GBP & Euro : What will happen can we expect at this event?

Yohana Parmi, 2019.04.09 07:09

Hello,

Please what will happen to GBP & Euro can we expect at this event? 
-- Friday. April 12, 2019.


Likely the analysts around the world are now thinking hard  :)


Sergey Golubev
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117008
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.10 12:20

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2019-04-10 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is 0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Rolling three-month growth was 0.3% in February 2019, the same as an upwardly-revised January 2019. This is slightly higher than the 0.2% growth seen in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2018."
  • "Monthly GDP growth was 0.2% in February 2019, after contracting by 0.3% in December 2018 and growing by 0.5% in January 2019. January growths for production, manufacturing, and construction have all been upwardly revised due to late survey returns."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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