Forecast and levels for GBP - page 14

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.11 11:10

GBP/USD - Ranging Bearish; 1.2506 is the key (based on the article)

GBP/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "GBP/USD has put in a bearish move to start the week, pulling up shy of the 1.2500 psychological level as the pair tumbled down to fresh 18-month lows. At the source of the selling was another negative headline around Brexit as Theresa May called off this week’s Parliamentary vote. This adds an element of chaos to an already uncertain situation, and the net response from traders was a 200+ pip sell-off as additional uncertainty was incorporated into GBP prices."
  • "With the Brexit backdrop as opaque as it’s been since the referendum, it’s become increasingly difficult to muster a bullish prognostication for the British Pound. But – with all currently known facts GBP bears have been yet unable to break through the 1.2500 level, and this is something that should be taken into consideration by those investigating short-side strategies. Risk management can be difficult given the pair’s proximity to recent resistance. I look at an area for potential resistance to go along with the potential for short-side breakout strategies on breaks-through the 1.2500 psychological level."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


Sergey Golubev
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recommendations for GBP/USD

Chathusanka Yamasinghe, 2018.12.16 12:48

Since Mid-November, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range).

On the other hand, two unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720 during last week's consolidations.

During Friday's consolidations, the GBP/USD pair failed to fixate above 1.2780 (79.6% Fibonacci). That's why, a significant decline was demonstrated below 1.2700-1.2660 (Historical bottoms) during this week's consolidations.

The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on daily basis.

Any bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2660-1.2700 can be watched for a valid SELL entry as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range as well as the depicted downtrend on H4 chart.

Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580 while S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2800.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.19 14:56

GBP/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsU.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-12-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "UK consumer price inflation slowed in November to its lowest level in twenty months, in line with economists' expectations, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday."
  • "The consumer price index rose 2.3 percent year-on-year following a 2.4 percent increase in October. The latest inflation rate was the lowest since March 2017, when inflation was at the same level."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.21 19:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD)United States Gross Domestic Product

2018-12-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the “second” estimate released in November. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.16 10:10

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote and range price movement 

2019-01-15 19:39 GMT | [GBP - Brexit Vote]

  • past data is n/a
  • forecast data is [reject]
  • actual data is [reject] according to the latest press release

[GBP - Brexit Vote] = UK Parliament votes to decide on passage of the deal triggering article 50 with European Union.

==========

From telegraph article :

  • "Theresa May is battling on two fronts as the Prime Minister fights to retain her grip on power while attempting to find a Brexit compromise that could command majority support in the Commons."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Parliament Brexit Vote news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.19 12:57

GBP/USD - bear market rally to the bullish reversal; 1.31 is the key (based on the article)


GBP/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "GBPUSD has enjoyed a strong run in 2019, picking itself up from a 1.2435 low to touch the 1.3000 level on an improving fundamental backdrop. This year’s mini-rally now sees GBPUSD touching the 200-day moving average and Cable has failed at its first attempt to break and close above here. Another attempt is expected shortly and if successful, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3177 becomes the next target. This level also coincides with the November 7 high. If this level is closed above, the recent series of lower highs will be broken, adding an additional bullish nudge for the pair. GBPUSD have also made four higher lows in a row, so if 1.2832 – Thursday’s low - remains intact, the chart set-up for GBPUSD remains constructive."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following indicator:



forexmantra
7
forexmantra  
Any idea on weekly forecast
Sergey Golubev
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GBP and Brexit

Rajneesh Sharma, 2019.01.29 10:26

Hi,

As we all know Brexit has caused a lot of moevement in GBP and EUR market. How do you see it in long term? 


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Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.06 09:46

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USDUSD/CNH and Crude OilISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2019-02-05 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 57.6
  • forecast data is 57.2
  • actual data is 56.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in January for the 108th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The NMI® registered 56.7 percent, which is 1.3 percentage points lower than the December reading of 58 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 59.7 percent, 1.5 percentage points lower than the December reading of 61.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 114th consecutive month, at a slower rate in January. The New Orders Index registered 57.7 percent, 5 percentage points lower than the reading of 62.7 percent in December. The Employment Index increased 1.2 percentage points in January to 57.8 percent from the December reading of 56.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.4 percentage points from the December reading of 58 percent to 59.4 percent, indicating that prices increased in January for the 20th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector’s growth rate cooled off in January. Respondents are concerned about the impacts of the government shutdown but remain mostly optimistic about overall business conditions."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

Crude Oil: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5



Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.11 10:48

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q and range price movement 

2019-02-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From theguardian article :

  • "The Office for National Statistics reports that GDP shrank by 0.4% in the final month of 2018. That’s worse than expected -- economists had predicted that the economy might have flatlined during the month. This will intensify fears that Britain’s economy is suffering from Brexit anxiety, the trade war between the US and China, and weakness in the eurozone (where Italy has fallen into recession) and beyond."
  • "The UK economy suffered a sharp slowdown in the last quarter of 2018, only expanding by 0.2%."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. GDP news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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