Forecast and levels for GBP - page 20

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.09 16:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 6867K
  • forecast data is 5000K
  • actual data is 6606K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From official report :

  • "In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,606,000, a decrease of 261,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 219,000 from 6,648,000 to 6,867,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,265,500, an increase of 1,598,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 54,750 from 2,612,000 to 2,666,750."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.21 13:22

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Unemployment Change and range price movement  

2020-04-21 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

  • past data is 6.0K
  • forecast data is 21.0K
  • actual data is 12.2K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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From forexcrunch article :

  • "UK March jobless claims change 12.2K vs +172.5K expected. The UK wages excluding bonuses rose by 2.9% YoY vs. +3.0% expected. The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.0% in February."
  • "The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday, The UK’s official jobless rate rose from the previous 3.9% to 4.0% in February, while the claimant count change showed a much smaller-than-expected increase."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event 

BP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.22 10:11

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement  

2020-04-22 07:00 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

  • past data is 1.7%
  • forecast data is 1.9%
  • actual data is 1.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in March 2020, down from 1.7% in February 2020."
  • "The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in March 2020 came from housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (0.51 percentage points)."
  • "Falls in the price of motor fuels and clothing resulted in the largest downward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between February and March 2020."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Consumer Price Index news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.24 11:48

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Great Britain Retail Sales and range price movement 

2020-04-24 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.3%
  • forecast data is -4.5%
  • actual data is -5.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

  • "In March 2020, the monthly retail sales volume fell sharply by 5.1%; the largest fall since the series began as many stores ceased trading from 23 March following official government guidance during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic."
  • "In March 2020, clothing store sales saw a sharp fall when compared with the previous month, at negative 34.8%."
  • "Food stores and non-store retailing were the only sectors to show growth in the monthly volume series in March 2020, with food stores seeing the strongest growth on record, at 10.4%."
  • "In the three months to March 2020, retail sales volume fell by 1.6% when compared with the previous three months, with strong declines in non-food stores and fuel."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain  Retail Sales news event 

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain Retail Sales news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 
Sergey Golubev:

Hello, Sergey.

To my mind the bullish tendence is more likely to take place.

Will GBP/USD rise above 1.262 in couple of weeks, what do you think?

 
sei88888:

Hello, Sergey.

To my mind the bullish tendence is more likely to take place.

Will GBP/USD rise above 1.262 in couple of weeks, what do you think?

If we look at the daily chartso the price is on bearish ranging since 27th of March this year.
The price came to be very close to the Ichimoku cloud from below to be ready to cross it for the possible daily bullish reversal.

But the key resistance levels for this 'crossing' are 1.252 and 1.264:

  • if the price crosses those levels to above on close daily bar so it means so it means that the price will be on the bullish zone of the daily chart with the primary bullish trend;
  • if not so the bearish ranging will be continuing.


And it is very similar situation on weekly chart: the price is on bearish ranging to be going along the border Ichimoku cloud and ready to be cross it from below to above for the primary bullish market condition.
And we can see same key resistance level at 1.264 for the bullish reversal to be started with 1.319 as a nearest bullish target in this case.


And it is very similar situation on monthly chart: the price is on secondary ranging without the primary bearish market condition moving along the border of Ichimoku cloud and ready to be cross this cloud to above for the primary bullish reversal.

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To make it shorter: price is on bearish ranging waiting for the direction for the bullish reversal to be started or for the bearish trend to be continuing.
I think - good fundamental news events may help to move the price to the bullish zone for example ... anyway - will see ..

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.07 10:39

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2020-05-07 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.10%
  • forecast data is 0.10%
  • actual data is 0.10% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Our MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%. The Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 for the Bank of England to continue with the programme of £200 billion of UK government bond and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, to take the total stock of these purchases to £645 billion."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.13 08:31

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement  

2020-05-13 07:00 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is -0.2%
  • forecast data is -7.9%
  • actual data is -5.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 5.8% in March 2020, the biggest monthly fall since the series began in 1997. Services and construction also saw record falls in the most recent month."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

GBPUSD double bottom @1,2250 ?

 

<Chart shot removed. If showing charts, any indicators must be freely available to all>


An approaching  is possible forming on this pair and I'll will be awaiting the possible opportunity. It may or may not complete formation, but I'll will be keeping an eye on the pair.

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