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Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.09 11:22

Dollar Index - Daily Ranging Bearish (based on the article)

Daily price is below ichimoku cloud for the bearish ranging wthin the narrow s/r levels:

  • 99.34 resistance located in the beginning of the secondary rally to be started, and
  • 98.41 support level located in the beginning of the bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "Traders hoping to gain an understanding of the LT direction of the USD would do well to keep an eye on the Trendline connecting higher lows since 2014. Currently, DXY is showing good Trendline support over the longer-term near 98.50. The test of the 3-year Trendline aligns with long-term seasonality studies where DXY has risen in 9 of the past ten years. However, recent momentum in past months have been disappointing DXY bulls, and the EUR is a key reason why DXY fails to gain upside traction."
  • "Much of the EUR downside since 2014, when DXY took off higher on the chart below, has been exasperated by fears of “what’s next?,” for the Euro. However, a look at the options market will show you that over the next two months, the 25-delta risk reversal is trading at its highest levels for the year. In other words, options traders have never worried less about EUR downside relative to the USD this year, which could keep EUR/USD trading higher on average."
  • "Any traders with an upside bias on DXY should continue to watch this Trendline support. Ichimoku currently favors downside momentum continuing and there remains hard resistance at the gap high after the first round of the French Presidential election when EUR/USD gapped over the weekend by its largest margin ever from 1.0750 to ~1.0900."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.13 08:00

Weekly Outlook: 2017, May 14 - May 21 (based on the article)


The second week of May saw the dollar gaining ground against many currencies despite a political controversy. A mix of events awaits us now: GDP from Japan, jobs from Australia, and housing data from the US.


    1. Chinese Industrial Production: Monday, 2:00. After a surprising rise of 7.6% last time, the figure for April could be weaker: 7% is expected.
    2. Euro-zone GDP: Tuesday, 9:00. No change is expected.
    3. US housing data: Tuesday, 12:30. Building permits are projected to remain at 1.27 million and housing starts to rise to 1.27 million.
    4. UK jobs report: Wednesday, 8:30. Wages are predicted to advance to 2.4% y/y and the unemployment rate is likely to stay at 4.7%.
    5. Oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
    6. Japanese GDP: Wednesday, 23:50. The economy of the third-largest global economy probably expanded also in early 2017: +0.4% is forecast.
    7. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. A modest gain of 5.2K is estimated and the unmeployment rate will likely stay at 5.9%.
    8. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A small rise from 236K to 240K is expected.

    Sergey Golubev
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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.29 06:27

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

    The US dollar managed to recover in the last full week of May. As the page turns into June, we have a buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation figure. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


    1. US Core PCE Price Index: Tuesday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.1% is expected. 
    2. CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A small drop to 120.1 is on the cards.
    3. Euro-zone inflation figures: Wednesday, 9:00.
    4. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. We now get the monthly figure for March which carries expectations for 0.3%.
    5. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. A score of 50.2 is expected now.
    6. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15.
    7. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. After standing at 234K, a tick up to 239K is expected.
    8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. A similar score of 54.7 is on the cards.
    9. Crude Oil inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
    10. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. Expectations stand at 186K, an unemployment rate of 4.4% once again and a rise of 0.2% in hourly wages after 0.3% last month.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.01 14:50

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

    2017-06-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = The indicator characterizes the labor market and industrial sector activity to assess the economic development in the country. Employment growth exceeding the predicted value is seen as positive for the US dollar.

    ==========

    From official report:

    • "Private sector employment increased by 253,000 jobs from April to May according to the May ADP National Employment Report® . Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis."

    ==========

    GBP/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


    ==========

    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events


    ==========

    XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news events



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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.03 07:59

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 04 - June 11 (based on the article)

    The US dollar was on the back foot throughout most of the week as data remained mixed and speculation about the Fed decision mounts. A rate decision in Australia, the ECB’s critical decision and the UK elections stand out in the first full week of June. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


      1. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 14:00. A score of 57.3 is predicted now.
      2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia last changed interest rates in August but has adopted a neutral stance since then. The Cash Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1.50% for another month and the Aussie will move on the tone of the statement. On one hand, the Australian economy is doing fine, with solid jobs growth and consumption. However, worries about China weigh on the outlook. In the past, the RBA took advantage of downfalls in the exchange rate to push the currency even lower. Will they hit the A$ when it’s down once again?
      3. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 14:00. If the Federal Reserve needs yet another jobs report in order to make its decision, the number of job openings serves as a hint. Despite being a laggard (the data is for April against May for the NFP), the publication still moves the needle as the Fed eyes it. In March, job opening stood at 5.74 million annualized. A small slide to 5.65 million is on the cards.
      4. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. A growth rate of 0.3% is projected.
      5. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. The weekly measure of oil inventories has an immediate impact on oil prices but also reflects on the global economy. Lower supply and marginally higher demand pushed inventories lower, helping oil prices stabilize.
      6. UK elections: Thursday-Friday. The full results should be clear before European markets open at 7:00 GMT.
      7. ECB rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, Draghi’s press conference at 12:30. 
      8. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30.

      Taras Slobodyanik
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      Taras Slobodyanik  

      Road map (quarterly candles)

      1

      Sergey Golubev
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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.10 13:57

      Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 11 - June 18 (based on the article)

      The US dollar advanced against its major peers amid the testimony from Comey. The focus now shifts to the highly anticipated Fed decision. We also have three additional rate decisions as well as other figures.


        1. US PPI: Tuesday, 12:30. Core PPI rose by 0.4% and is expected to decelerate to 0.2% in May.
        2. UK jobs report, Wednesday, 8:30. Wages are predicted to remain unchanged at 2.4%.
        3. US CPI: Wednesday, 12:30. For the month of May, the headline number is expected to rise by 0.3% and Core CPI by 0.2%.
        4. US retail sales: Wednesday, 12:30. Retail sales advanced by 0.4% in April and 0.1% is expected now. Core sales carry expectations for 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand.
        5. US Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. This is one of the Fed’s more important meetings. In addition to the regular statement, the central bank also publishes updated forecasts for growth, employment and inflation. 
        6. NZ GDP: Wednesday, 22:45. After a relatively slow growth rate of 0.4% in Q4 2016, expectations stand at 0.7% for Q1 2017.
        7. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 1:30. The forecast for May stands at a more modest 10.3K. The unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 5.7%.
        8. Swiss rate decision: Thursday, 7:30. No change is expected now, despite a weaker exchange rate.
        9. UK rate decision: Thursday, 11:00. 
        10. Japanese rate decision:  Friday early morning, no specific hour.
        11. US housing data: Friday, 12:30. Housing starts disappointed in April with a fall to 1.17 million and a small increase is likely for May.
        12. US consumer sentiment:  Friday, 14:00. In theory, more confident consumers buy more, but the correlation with actual retail sales is not always there.

        Sergey Golubev
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        Sergey Golubev  

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        Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 14:57

        Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Consumer Price Index

        2017-06-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

        • past data is 0.2%
        • forecast data is 0.2%
        • actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

        if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

        [USD - CPI] = The Consumer Price Index m/m measures changes in prices of a basket of consumer goods and services in the given month compared to the previous one. The index shows price changes from the perspective of the consumer.

        ==========

        From official report:

        • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.9 percent."

        ==========

        Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Consumer Price Index news events

        Dollar Index

        ==========

        XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Consumer Price Index news events



        Sergey Golubev
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        Sergey Golubev  

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        Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.17 09:36

        Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 18 - June 25 (based on the article)

        The US dollar enjoyed some strength thanks to the Fed’s hawkish hike. Can it continue advancing? The Fed can continue influencing currencies thanks to speeches from top Fed officials. In addition, we have housing data from the US and other events. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


          1. FOMC’s Dudley talks: Monday, 12:00. New York Fed President Bill Dudley is No. 3 at the Federal Reserve and usually a dove. In his speech in Plattsburgh, Dudley could provide more insight about the next moves of the Fed.
          2. FOMC’s Fischer talks: Tuesday, 12:00. Stanley Fischer is the Vice Chair of the Fed and contrary to Dudley, he is considered a hawk. Fischer will be speaking across the pond, in Amsterdam.
          3. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00.
          4. Crude oil inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
          5. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The team led by Governor Graeme Wheeler is likely to leave the interest rate unchanged at 1.75% and the statement will make a difference. They usually try to talk the currency down.
          6. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. A similar number is on the cards: 241K is predicted.
          7. US new home sales: Friday, 14:00. New home sales stood at 569K in April and a rise to 599K is forecast now.

          Sergey Golubev
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          Sergey Golubev  

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          Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.24 08:57

          Weekly Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

          The US dollar enjoyed some strength thanks to the Fed’s hawkish hike, but this did not last too long. What’s next? The Fed can continue influencing currencies thanks to speeches from top Fed officials, including Yellen. In addition, we have many other central bankers speaking and also some GDP figures.


            1. US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 12:30. A rise of 0.4% is on the cards for core orders.
            2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 17:30 and Tuesday at 8:00. The president of the ECB participates in an event in Sintra, Portugal.
            3. Mark Carney talks: Tuesday, 10:00. The Governor of the BOE will present the Financial Stability Report and will speak at a press conference.
            4. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A small drop to 116.1 is on the cards.
            5. Patrick Harker talks Tuesday, 15:15. The President of the Philadelphia Fed will speak in London. In his previous public appearance, Harker surprised by expressing some worries about inflation.
            6. Janet Yellen talks: Tuesday, 17:00. The Chair of the Federal Reserve expressed lots of optimism about growth and employment while dismissing inflation on one-off events.
            7. Central bankers panel: Wednesday, 13:30. Four governors will participate in a panel at Sintra: the ECB’s Mario Draghi, the BOE’s Mark Carney, the BOJ’s Haruhiko Kuroda and the BOC’s Stephen Poloz all talk at one event.
            8. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. A rise of 0.6% is on the cards.
            9. Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
            10. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A confirmation of the 1.2% growth rate is expected.
            11. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. We now get the final read which is projected to confirm the 0.2% read.
            12. Euro-zone inflation: Friday, 9:00. THeadline inflation carries expectations for a slide to 1.3% while core inflation is forecast to advance to 1%.
            13. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. Month over month, a rise of 0.1% is predicted.
            14. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30. 

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