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Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 10:06

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish reversal: price broke 94.61 daily resistance level to above for the bullish breakout to be continuing with 99.76 nearest bullish target.


  • "The European Central Bank may have set the table for US Dollar Bulls to enjoy a fine fourth quarter this week. On Thursday, President Mario Draghi caused a major shift in positioning as evidenced from multiple markets that were pricing in EUR strength over the coming quarters unwinding. The takeaways from Thursday was an assurance from the ECB was that the market should not worry about ECB rate hikes, which was something the market was pricing in before the meeting. Draghi also discouraged the use of the word taper (the wind-down of QE) as the ECB will be looking to provide substantial market support going forward, which caused the EUR to eventually fall below 1.16 and the DXY to break above 95."
  • "This week, the US Dollar has traded to a three month high with sentiment rising and favoring further DXY strength going forward. On the charts, the significant development this week was the close above the confluence of resistance near 94.20. The zone around there combined three different technical focuses. First, the mid-August corrective/lower high was at 94.15 followed by a 161.8% extension at 94.20 of the initial move higher when the DXY was seen as too oversold in early September given possible rate hikes at 91.01 to the September 14 high of 92.65. Lastly, a price channel that has framed price action for most of 2017 also predicted price pressure developing above 94. The close this week that accounted for the highest weekly gain of 2017 likely indicates a shift in behavior toward the DXY?"

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 12:24

Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 29 - November 05 (based on the article)

The US dollar had an excellent week, mostly thanks to speculation about the next Chair of the Fed. What’s next? The upcoming week opens a new month and packs both a Fed decision and the Non-Farm Payrolls. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week. 


    1.  US Core PCE: Monday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.1% is on the cards.
    2. Japanese rate decision: Tuesday morning. The Bank of Japan has failed to lift inflation despite a massive QE program and a negative interest rate. The current policy is to hold 10-year bond yields at 0%, thus buying bonds whenever needed. After the Japanese elections, the BOJ may reconsider its policy measures, but most BOJ meetings do not yield a change.
    3. Euro-zone inflation data: Tuesday, 10:00. A full repeat is predicted now: 1.5% in the headline CPI and 1.1% in core CPI.
    4. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 12:30. A growth rate of 0.1% m/m is predicted.
    5. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. The score for October is higher: 121.1 points.
    6. New Zealand jobs report: Tuesday, 21:45. The level of employment is predicted to jump by 0.8% and the unemployment rate is estimted to tick down to 4.7%.
    7. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 12:15. A gain of 191K jobs is on the cards.
    8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. A small slide to 59.4 is expected in the headline number.
    9. US Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00. This is a meeting that does not consist of a press conference nor new forecasts and thus is not expected to yield a change in policy. The focus is on the December meeting when the Fed is likely to deliver its third and last rate hike for the year. So far, Yellen and her colleagues are not deterred by lower inflation and intend to proceed as usual. This November meeting provides them with an opportunity to give a hint if they may change their minds. Any expressions of concern about inflation could send the dollar lower, while confidence could send it higher.
    10. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. The Bank of England will probably raise the interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50%, reversing the post-Brexit hike of August 2016. In the previous meeting and in consequent speeches, the Bank of England gave heavy hints that they are going to raise the rates due to higher inflation (reached 3% y/y) and also on worries about rapidly expanding credit. However, one member cast doubt about the timing of the hike while Governor  Carney seemed unenthusiastic about further hikes. In case the BOE surprises with a no-change, the pound will crash, but the chances are low. In case they hike but hint it is only a one-off, the pound will likely wobble but no go anywhere fast. In case it is the beginning of a tightening cycle, the pound will leap. This is a “Super Thursday” meeting, that also consists of the Quarterly Inflation Report in addition to the rate decision and the meeting minutes. The QIR consists of inflation forecasts that could provide some prospects about the next moves while the meeting minutes could show if there were dissenters against the decision. The event will surely trigger high volatility.
    11. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. The “king of forex indicators” will likely show a rebound in jobs after the extraordinary report for September. The impact of the hurricanes resulted in a loss of 33K jobs, the first drop since 2010. On the other hand, wages were up 0.5%, a big jump. The report for October will already be more “normal” with a gain in jobs to compensate for the loss. Wages may be more mysterious. If the report shows that the gain in salaries is persistent, it will certainly strengthen the case for a rate hike, given that higher paychecks impact core inflation.  The unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in September and could tick up from here. Jobs are expected to jump by 311K in October and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings carry expectations for a rise of 0.2%.
    12. Canadian jobs report: Friday, 12:30. A gain of 13.6K jobs is on the cards and the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 6.2%.
    13. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:00. A lower score of 58.3 is expected.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:20

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


    Dollar Index"The week ahead brings a hefty dose of fresh fodder to inform this narrative. The FOMC will convene for a policy meeting and marquee data releases including October’s employment numbers as well as the closely watched ISM and PMI activity surveys are set to cross the wires. Both components seem likely to complement the greenback’s latest upward push. Recent comments from Fed Chair Yellen have not-so-subtly signaled that the US central bank is on track for a rate hike in December. That makes the release of November’s policy statement a familiar pre-game exercise unambiguously setting the stage for what’s to follow. Meanwhile, a steady outperformance on US data outcomes since mid-June opens the door for another round of upbeat releases on the horizon."

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    Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.03 14:04

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

    2017-11-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

    • past data is -33K
    • forecast data is 312K
    • actual data 261K n/a according to the latest press release

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

    ==========

    From official report :

    • "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261,000 in October, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in food services and drinking places increased sharply, mostly offsetting a decline in September that largely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. In October, job gains also occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care."

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    EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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    NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


    ==========

    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


    ============

    Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

    All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 08:07

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

    The US dollar was mixed across the board despite big events in markets. Will this continue? The upcoming week features events from all over the world. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


      1. FOMC’s Dudley talks: Monday, 17:10. The President of the New York Fed is a permanent voter and this speech in New York will be an opportunity to react to the nomination of Powell as Fed Chair, as well as the Fed’s classification of inflation as “soft” rather than transitory.
      2. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30.
      3. US JOLTS Job Openings: Tuesday, 15:00. Just after the Non-Farm Payrolls report, we get a belated, yet meaningful figure for the Fed. The number of job openings and quits serves as a gauge of the wider jobs market. Back in August, the number of opening stood at 6.08 million, maintaining the high ground above 6 million. A similar figure is likely now: 5.98 million.
      4. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The interest rate stands at 1.75% since late 2016, when it was last reduced. The big downfall of the exchange rate should keep the acting governor Grant Spence and his team happy and they are unlikely to cut interest rates. The new Labour-led government is expected to change the mandate of the RBNZ, and this point will also feature
      5. US jobless claims: Thursday, 13:30. A small rise from 229K to 231K is on the cards.
      6. US consumer confidence: Friday, 15:00. A score of 101 is projected.

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      Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.11 08:24

      Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 12 - November 19 (based on the article)

      The US dollar was somewhat on the backfoot in a relatively slow week. Will it continue sliding? The upcoming week features the all-important inflation and retail sales figures from the US as well as housing data and more. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


        1. FOMC’s Harker talks: Monday, 00:10. Philly Fed President Patrick Harker will speak early in the week and can have an outsized impact due to low liquidity.
        2. German GDP: Tuesday, 7:00. A revised figure for the all-European number will be influenced by this publication.
        3. UK inflation: Tuesday, 9:30. 3.1% is forecast now.
        4. Yellen, Draghi, Carney, and Draghi speak Tuesday, 10:00. The governors of the US FED, the ECB, the BOE and the BOJ will all speak at a panel at the ECB’s conference in Frankfurt. The topic is communication, which has been an important part of central banks’ policies. Any comments about these all-important CBs policies could impact the USD, EUR, GBP, and the BOJ. Draghi will also speak on Friday at 8:30, but the panel with his peers on Tuesday is more important.
        5. US PPI: Tuesday, 13:30. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.1% and core PPI by 0.2%.
        6. Japanese GDP: Tuesday, 23:50. A slower growth rate of 0.4% is projected now.
        7. US CPI: Wednesday, 13:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% m/m and core CPI by 0.2% m/m.
        8. US retail sales: Wednesday, 13:30.
        9. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. An increase of 18.9K is estimated and the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 5.5%.
        10. FOMC’s Brainard talks: Thursday, 14:30. Lael Brainard is a permanent voter at the FOMC. She does not make many public appearances and her opinions certainly matter. Her speech at Ann Arbor could provide hints about future monetary policy.
        11. US housing data: Friday, 13:30. Small rises are likely now: building permits to 1.25 million and housing starts to 1.19 million.

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        Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.19 10:55

        Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 19 - November 26 (based on the article)

        The US dollar had a mixed week amid all-important inflation numbers. The upcoming week features US durable goods orders, housing data, speeches from Yellen and Draghi, and the FOMC minutes as we head into Thanksgiving. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


          1. Mario Draghi testifies Monday, 14:00. The president of the ECB faces European MPs in Brussels and may lay out an updated view of the euro-zone economies and the inflation situation. The next meeting of the ECB is only in mid-December, so Draghi will not be constrained by a “quiet period”.
          2. US Existing Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. An annual level of 5.42 million is on the cards.
          3. Janet Yellen talks, Tuesday, 23:00. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak in New York and may provide some interesting insights about the upcoming Fed meeting in December. Given she will be out of her job in February, Yellen may be freer to speak out.
          4. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 13:30. Both headline and core orders are expected to rise by 0.4%.
          5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00. These are the minutes from the November meeting, which did not consist of new forecasts nor a press conference. While the Fed hinted that they are on course to raise rates in December, they changed their wording about inflation, describing it as “soft”. We will now get an insight into the discussion among the members. How worried are they about inflation? How pleased are they with job growth? It is unlikely that the minutes will change expectations about the December meeting, but the dollar will likely move.
          6. UK GDP (second release): Thursday, 9:30. The second release will likely confirm this growth rate.
          7. ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30.
          8. Thomas Jordan speaks Thursday, 16:30. The Governor of the Swiss National Bank will give a speech in Basel and will discuss the high current account surplus. The SNB continues intervening in the franc from time to time maintaining the surplus, keeping inflation from falling too much and helping Swiss exports.

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          Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.26 17:43

          Weekly Outlook: 2017, November 26 - December 03 (based on the article)

          The US dollar was on the back foot in the week of Thanksgiving and now we are back to business with a busy week. A mix of housing data, inflation figures, and an update on GDP stand out Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


            1. US New Home Sales: Monday, 15:00. A drop to 627K is predicted.
            2. Bill Dudley speaks, Tuesday, 00:00. The outgoing president of the New York Fed will speak in California and may clarify the Fed’s stance on inflation after the dovish meeting minutes. Dudley used to be a dove but has expressed optimism in recent months. Is a December rate hike still on the cards? Probably. But in 2018, everything is possible. Dudley will also speak on Wednesday at 13:30, but the first weekly appeance is more important.
            3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. A slide to 123.9 is on the cards now.
            4. US GDP (second release): Wednesday, 13:30. An upgrade to 3.3% is predicted given the upbeat updates for the third quarter.
            5. Janet Yellen testifies, Wednesday, 14:00. The outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify in Washington. Her recent worries that weak inflation is not transitory and the dovish meeting minutes set the ground for her testimony. Has she changed her mind on the December rate hike? Once again, the probability is low, but a softer stance in 2018 by her successor Powell is likely. The focus remains inflation.
            6. Euro-zone inflation: Thursday, 10:00. Healine inflation is expected to bounce to 1.6% and core inflation to tick up to 1%.
            7. US Core PCE Price Index: Thursday, 13:30. Month over month, a rise of 0.2% is projected.
            8. Canadian jobs report Friday, 13:30.
            9. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30.
            10. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. A small slide to 58.4 is on the cards.

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            Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.02 11:05

            Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 03 - December 10 (based on the article)

            The US dollar managed to recover in the week after Thanksgiving on positive data, upbeat Fed statements, imminent tax cuts, and despite a major development in Trump’s troubles. The Non-Farm Payrolls is the key event and we also have rate decisions from Australia and Canada Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


              1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. This is the last decision of the year and the RBA does not meet in January. They are not expected to make any change now.
              2. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 15:00. The figure for November is projected to be slightly lower: 59.2 points.
              3. Australian GDP: Wednesday, 00:30. We may get a slower growth rate for Q3: 0.7% according to the projections.
              4. ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Wednesday, 13:15. A more moderate gain of 191K jobs is estimated.
              5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. Markets still expect the BOC to hike in 2018, but nothing is certain.
              6. Mario Draghi talks Thursday, 16:00. The President of the ECB will hold a press conference in front of the Bank of International Settlements. This comes one week before the central bank makes its decision and also publishes new forecasts. Draghi may react to the upbeat growth figures, but also to the latest disappointment in inflation developments. He usually moves the euro.
              7. Japanese GDP: Thursday, 23:50. An upgrade to 0.4% q/q is on the cards.
              8. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 13:30. This is the last NFP before the Fed decision in December, in which Yellen is expected to complete 3 hikes in 2017. Only a terrible report would derail the hike.
              9. US consumer confidence: Friday, 15:00. All in all, consumers are quite confident, also according to other surveys such as the CB one.

              Sergey Golubev
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              Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.10 07:58

              Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 10 - December 17 (based on the article)

              The US dollar continued enjoying the optimism from the tax cuts and was not hit hard by the data. Can it continue higher? Four rate decisions await us: the SNB, ECB, BOE, and the FED, with Yellen’s last post-rate decision press conference. Can the dollar continue higher? Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


              1. UK inflation: Tuesday, 9:30. Expectations still remain high at 3%.
              2. US PPI: Tuesday, 13:30. Another rise of 0.4% in headline PPI is predicted. Core PPI carries expectations for 0.2%.
              3. US Inflation: Wednesday, 13:30. A rise of 0.4% is projected for headline CPI and +0.2% for core CPI.
              4. US rate decision: Wednesday, 19:00, press conference at 19:30. The Fed is expected to raise rates for the fifth time in the cycle and third time this year. The hike from to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% has been well-telegraphed for a long time. This time, the Fed also releases forecasts for inflation, employment, growth, and interest rates. At the moment, the central bank foresees three additional hikes in 2018. Will they stick to their guns? Markets are skeptical, but they will probably signal continuity before Powell makes his own mark. However, this is an open question as inflation remains low. Outgoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen initially shrugged off lower price rises as “transitory“, then called it “a mystery” and eventually admitted that it might not necessarily be that transitory. What are her views this time? Apart from the forecasts, the tone of the statement and her press conference, her last post-rate decision statement, will be telling. We can expect incoming Chair Jerome Powell to vote with the majority as always and we can expect Neel Kashkari of the Minnesota Fed to dissent, as he previously did earlier in the year. The Fed will try not to rock the boat too much, but markets may cling to any small semantic change in the statement, a shift in the projections, or Yellen’s tone to try and look into 2018.
              5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. A gain of 19.2K is on the cards and the unemployment rate carries expectations for remaining at 5.4%.
              6. Swiss rate decision: Thursday, 8:30.  change in policy is unlikely, and will likely lead to a stronger franc. Many traders are still reeling from the January 2015 SNBomb.
              7. UK rate decision: Thursday, 12:00. A unanimous “no-change” vote is more likely among the 9-member Monetary Policy Committee ahead of the holidays.
              8. Euro-zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. As usual, Draghi will continue his balancing act. If he talks about ending QE after September, the euro will jump, but this is unlikely. The ECB can wait until around June to make such future announcements.
              9. US retail sales: Thursday, 13:30. A gain of 0.3% is forecast in headline retail sales and +0.7% in core sales.

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