Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.16 07:35

Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 17 - December 24 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot but managed to climb back in a busy week. As we enter the last week before the holidays, how will currencies make their last-minute adjustments? GDP data from the US, the UK, and Canada stand out. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


  1. US housing data: Tuesday, 13:30. Note that for a meaningful effect, both figures need to go in the same direction. In some cases, one surprises to the upside and the other to the downside, offsetting each other.
  2. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Another advance is on the cards now: 5.54 million.
  3. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 21:45. A slightly slower rate is on the cards now: 0.6%.
  4. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, early in the morning. The Bank of Japan seems to be the only central bank in the developed world not to take a hawkish turn. They keep on buying bonds in full-force. No change is expected now, as we reach the end of the year.
  5. US final GDP: Thursday, 13:30. The third and final read is expected to confirm this growth rate, the second consecutive quarter of over 3% GDP growth.
  6. US durable goods orders: Friday, 13:30. The data impacts Q4 growth projections.
  7. US Core PCE: Friday, 13:30.
  8. Canadian GDP: Friday, 13:30.
  9. US new home sales: Friday, 15:00. 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.22 07:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and EUR/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-12-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.24 07:10

Weekly Outlook: 2017, December 24 - December 31 (based on the article)

The last week before the holidays saw the dollar mostly lower, with the exception of the Japanese yen. What’s next? The last week of 2017 is a holiday week that features low trading volume and liquidity. This usually results in quiet trading, but can also see surprising sparks. There are very few events, but they could trigger an outsized response given the conditions.


    1. US CB Consumer Confidence: Wednesday, 15:00.
    2. US Pending Home Sales: Wednesday, 15:00. 
    3. US jobless claims: Thursday, 13:30. This weekly barometer of the labor market disappointed with a jump to 245K last time. We could see it sliding back to the 230Ks now.
    4. Chicago PMI: Thursday, 14:45. This purchasing managers’ index is usually overshadowed by bigger events but could have its say this time. After standing at the high level of 63.9 points in November, the fresh release for December will find it hard to reach higher ground. However, it had already reached higher ground. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
    5. German CPI: Friday, during the European morning with the final release coming at 13:00. Prices in Europe’s third-largest economy rose by 0.3% in November and its early publication will shape the numbers for all the euro-zone. Draghi’s dovishness is based on poor inflation in the euro-zone. We’ll now get an early look while liquidity is super-low just ahead of the New Years’ Party.

     

    Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.05 17:03

    Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Employment Change

    2018-01-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Nonfarm Payrolls]

    if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

    USD - Nonfarm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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    From official report :

    • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing."

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    EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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    USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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    Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


    ==========

    Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

    All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


     

    Does anyone know what indicator gives the blue and red arrows in the attached image? I have tried searching for its name or downloadlink but I can't find it.You can find the image at http://mt4forexsignal.forexth.com/

    Files:
    unknown_indicator.png  432 kb
     
    ofwono:

    Does anyone know what indicator gives the blue and red arrows in the attached image? I have tried searching for its name or downloadlink but I can't find it


    It looks line Asctrend system (very early version) for MT4.
    You can find it on the first links here (or look search in Codebase using this link). 

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    AscTrend

    The beginning

    1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
    2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
    3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
    4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
    5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
    6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

    After

    1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
    2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
    3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
    4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

    ============

     

    I think the ASCtrend is the purple and the light blue arrows but I meant the black arrows encompassed with red and blue colors
     

    As to your image - I understood that it is the classical Asctrend system which I used and promoted since 2005 here (from MT4 and MT5). You can use ther links "the beginning" in my previous post (those were my threads).

    But I am sorry ... why did you post your image as an attachment?


    You did not know ... I could not say same ...

     
    Sergey Golubev:

    As to your image - I understood that it is the classical Asctrend system which I used and promoted since 2005 here (from MT4 and MT5). You can use ther links "the beginning" in my previous post (those were my threads).

    But I am sorry ... why did you post your image as an attachment?


    You did not know ... I could not say same ...


    Thanks for your support sergey. I am not a regular user of this forum, so I did what I usually do with images, I simply attach the files rather than paste it in the text box. Now I know what to do, I will do it right next time.

    By the way, does the red and blue arrow repaint after the candle has closed?

     
    ofwono:

    Thanks for your support sergey. I am not a regular user of this forum, so I did what I usually do with images, I simply attach the files rather than paste it in the text box. Now I know what to do, I will do it right next time.

    By the way, does the red and blue arrow repaint after the candle has closed?

    AscTrend arrow - check my previous post

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