Forecast and levels for AUD - page 15

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.25 07:21

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2018-07-25 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services purchased by customers.

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From official report :

  • "rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% in the March quarter 2018."
  • "rose 2.1% over the twelve months to the June quarter 2018, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) news event 

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.07 09:19

AUD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsRBA Cash Rate and range price movement 

2018-08-07 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.15 08:44

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Wage Price Index and range price movement 

2018-08-15 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Wage Price Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Wage Price Index] = Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, excluding bonuses.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend index rose 0.5% and seasonally adjusted index rose 0.6% for Australia in the June quarter 2018."

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AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Wage Price Index news event 

AUD/USD M15 by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


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AUD USD

noye peter igwe, 2018.08.22 19:38

Buy AUD USD stop below 0.7320 Target 0.7409 to  0.7440 
And EUR USD weekly close above 1.1555 open way for more growth to 1.1750

Sergey Golubev
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AUDUSD near a strong support

Rafael Grecco, 2018.09.05 15:02

Hey guys,

AUDUSD is currently testing a strong support. I ended up entering a sell trade too early, but got rid of it.

Support was tested on May 2016 and December 2016/Januray 2017.

UADUSD

What do you guys think?


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.01 13:40

Australian Dollar Looks To RBA (based on the article)

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Australian Dollar has lacked interest rate support compared to its big US brother for all of 2018, and that trend looks set to continue judging by another docile inflation print on Monday."
  • "The Melbourne Institute’s monthly gauge showed a 0.3% rise on the month in September, for a 2.1% annualized gain. Admittedly that monthly rise was stronger than Augusts 0.1% uptick, but the yearly figure was unchanged. Moreover the ‘trimmed mean’ measure showed inflation up just 1.8% on the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia will give its October interest rate decision on Tuesday. It is expected to keep the Official Cash Rate at its now-venerable 1.50% record low once again."
  • "The Australian economy is not doing at all badly on many counts, notably overall growth and job creation. However, inflation remains stickily low, only having crept back into the RBA’s target band in this year’s second quarter -for the first time in over a year. Official inflation is running at 2.1%, the same rate as the Melbourne Institute’s current measure."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:


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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.09 14:54

Interest Rates (adapted from the article)

While there are many factors that figure into the valuation of a currency, one of the most important factors to consider is the country’s interest rates.

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by FOMC Fed Funds Rate news events

AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

AUDUSD M5 : 26 pips range price movement by AUD - Cash Rate news event

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  • "If we have a relatively stable geopolitical and economic situation around the world, the currency market will naturally favor a currency that is seeing a rise in interest rates and further interest rate hike expectations ahead. Still, interest rates aren’t the only factors that move a currency. Other such factors such as war, geopolitical concerns, inflation, correlations to other markets, and many other things can come into play as well."
  • "When interest rates are higher, it tends to attract a lot of foreign investment. This is because money always wants to go to “where it is treated the best.” For example, if you run a huge hedge fund, you will be looking for higher yields for your clients. If country A pays 5% on a bond, while country B pays 2% on the same type of bond, then country A is the clear favorite as to where you should be investing. In order to buy that bond, or invest in that financial vehicle, you need to purchase in the host country’s currency."
  • "Let’s say that you run a large fund out of the United Kingdom. You are instructed to put money to work somewhere, and the most natural place to put a significant amount of your money is going to be where you can find the most growth. Typically, central banks will raise interest rates if an economy is running hot. There is a bit of a timing issue here, but sometimes you may decide to go into a stock market, for which you will need to make purchases in a local currency. The reason for the higher rates is that they are worried about the economy boiling over, but at the same time there is a proclivity for stocks to go higher in that situation. Looking around the world, you decide that Germany is the place that you wish to invest as many of the German multinationals have enjoyed great export growth. In order to buy stocks on the DAX, you will need to buy euros."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.17 09:26

AUD/USD -  daily downtrend is still continuing in ranging way (based on the article)

AUD/USD intra-day chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Australian Dollar has tepidly recovered to challenge trend resistance guiding it lower against its US counterpart since late January. That barrier is now in the 0.7136-0.7210 area. A daily close above that would neutralize the near-term bearish bias and initially expose the September’s swing highs in the 0.7304-15 zone."
  • "Alternatively, a turn back below the October 8 low at 0.7041 sees the next significant barrier at 0.6900, the September 2015 bottom. That is closely followed by the January 2016 trough at 0.6827."
  • "Shorter-term positioning favors the latter scenario. The four-hour chart reveals the appearance of negative RSI divergence on a test of inflection point resistance, hinting at ebbing upside momentum that might precede reversal. Confirmation on a break of counter-trend support is still pending however."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.18 11:00

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment ChangeUnemployment Rate and range price movement 

2018-10-18 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 44.6K
  • forecast data is 15.2K
  • actual data is 5.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 5,600 to 12,636,300. Full-time employment increased 20,300 to 8,654,400 and part-time employment decreased 14,700 to 3,981,900."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 pts to 5.0%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Unemployment Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Unemployment Rate news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
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Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.29 09:46

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar (based on the article)

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

AUD/USD"The Australian Dollar continues to languish close to this year’s lows against its US cousin, but, while there’s little scope to expect a turnaround, matters may not get much worse for its bulls this week. he currency remains primarily beset by the yawning gap in monetary policy approaches between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the US Federal Reserve. While the Fed seems resolved to go on raising interest rates whatever President Donald Trump’s reservations , the RBA seems set to keep its own key Official Cash Rate at its 1.50% record low for many months yet. Indeed futures markets still don not predict a move for all of next year."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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