Press review - page 604

[Sergey Golubev]

cemal:
There is a bug in mql5 site,I can not see my messages like I used to.

Your posts on the forum?
I can see your post (and I replied to your post now by this my post).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yuan (based on the article)

Yuan - "China will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018. It is widely expected to stay unchanged at 6.8% from the last quarter; any surprise would largely drive the market. Also, a leading indicator, Fixed Assets Investment will provide clues about the outlook of the economy: it picked up in February from an 18-year low level at the end of 2017; whether it is a recovery or a temporary retracement needs further evidence."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Crude Oil (based on the article)

Crude Oil - "Crude oil was at the epicenter of geopolitical risk last week due to Yemeni missiles heading for Riyadh being intercepted and US President Trump threatening a barrage of missiles toward Syria. In a change of events, the reduction of trade war threats was replaced with possible real war, which was a concoction that caused oil bulls to bid the commodity market to the highest levels since 2014 and pushed WTI Crude closer to $70/bbl. Traditionally, volatility is accompanied by downside price shocks. However, recently we’ve seen 2-month realized volatility at the highest levels of the year with price pushing to the highest levels since December 2014."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for S&P 500 (based on the article)

S&P 500 - "Looking ahead to next week, the calendar is light on data with the only ‘high’ impact release arriving on Monday via the March Advance Retail Sales figures. Geopolitical tensions with Syria/Russia and ‘trade war’ talk could continue to be a threat on the headline front. The S&P continued last week to be volatile but without much direction as it sorts itself out following another test of the 200-day MA and Feb 2016 trend-line. A boost higher out of the coiling range could have the index poised for a test of the trend-line off the highs in the vicinity of 2735. A push back lower will have big support in focus, but for as long as it holds the market will remain neutral at worst. A breakdown with momentum will be required to shift the focus towards another risk-off event."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Gold prices seemed like they were about to shoot for the stars last week as fears of escalating geopolitical tensions around Syria ignited risk aversion. Stocks sank and the relatively higher-yielding US Dollar fell, fueling demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, this trading dynamic quickly reversed, and by Thursday gold gave up its gains from the day before. Cooling Syria conflict tensions and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes helped contribute to this. The week ahead looks to be lighter in terms of economic statistics. The major standout being March’s US retail sales figures that are due on Tuesday. There, consumer spending is expected to increase for the first time in two months by 0.4% m/m. However, data out of the country has been falling short relative to economists’ expectations as of late. A downside surprise may boost gold if the US Dollar declines as a result."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United States Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-04-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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From cnbc article :

• "The Commerce Department says retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month, the largest increase since November. Auto sales jumped 2 percent, the most in six months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Retail Sale news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY - daily ranging along Senkou Span line for direction (based on the article)

• "The broader bearish view would resume on a break below the April opening range low at 105.65 that aligns closely with the daily Tenkan-Sen (26-day midpoint) at 106.06 as key support. Should the price close below these levels, it would be difficult to argue that the trend is not continuing lower and could soon press towards the long-term Fibonacci target of 104.20."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias"

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance and range price movement 

2018-04-18 00:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

• past data is -0.21T
• forecast data is 0.10T
• actual data is 0.12T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

• "Japan posted a merchandise trade surplus of 797.3 billion yen in March, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday - up 32.1 percent on year. That exceeded expectations for 499.2 billion yen and was up sharply from 3.4 billion yen in February."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 
• Rules to trade manually 
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - long-term bullish reversal; 1.2555 is the key (based on the article)

Monthly price is testing resistance level at 1.2555 to above for the long-term bullish reversal to be started.

• "The Euro is struggling to find lasting direction against the US Dollar but longer-term positioning continues to argue for a broadly bearish trend bias. Still, the medium-term view carries bullish elements that may yet carry potent supportive implications. On the monthly chart, prices are perched squarely at the top of a falling trend channel defining the way lower for nearly a decade. A cluster of critical swing lows that served as support from 2008 to 2012 before finally being broken in 2014 has been recast as resistance, reinforcing the barrier capping gains."
• "From a tactical perspective, opting to keep in play the second half of a short EUR/USD trade from 1.2407 seems prudent after partial profit was booked on hitting the trade’s first objective. Confirmation of the Triangle on a close above 1.2448 would also invalidate the position’s underlying logic, triggering a stop-loss. In the meantime, the series of lower highs set from the double top below the 1.26 figure continues to hold and risk/reward parameters suggest there is room to wait and see if the weight of the long-term down trend will prevail. If it does, scale-up opportunities will be actively pursued."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-04-19 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is -6.3K
• forecast data is 20.3K
• actual data is 4.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 4,900 to 12,484,100. Full-time employment decreased 19,900 to 8,514,100 and part-time employment increased 24,800 to 3,970,000."
• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with the following indicator from CodeBase:

• TrendSignal Indicator - indicator for MetaTrader 5