Press review - page 598

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)

XAU/USD - "Gold prices were originally up to a decent start last week, boosted by a US CPI report. There, February’s inflation was in-line with expectations. The downside was that real average hourly earnings dropped, from +0.7% m/m to +0.4% m/m. The US Dollar fell on that aspect and this increased demand for the anti-fiat yellow metal. However, on Thursday things turned south. Absent a major catalyst, the greenback appreciated broadly against its major counterparts alongside local 2-year government bond yields. This naturally sapped the appeal of gold and caused it to close at its lowest point in more than two months. The move appeared to reflect pre-positioning for next week’s FOMC monetary policy announcement which brings us to what is in store for gold next week. This meeting is scheduled to occur on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. There, the markets are unanimously expecting benchmark lending rates to increase to a range of 1.50 – 1.75%. However, that itself is not what investors will be paying attention to. Back towards the end of February, Fed’s new Chair Jerome Powellhinted the possibility of a fourth rate hike by the end of the year."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily narrow ranging near bearish reversal area (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud and Senkou Span line within the narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The euro continues to flip-flop from one week to the next; it’s strong, it’s weak, it’s strong, and so on. What does this mean? Immediately, it means very little as EUR/USD could still be in a topping process around the 2008 trend-line or building a bull-flag setting it up for an eventual continuation of the rally starting last year."
• "Either way, we need to wait for confirmation before committing ourselves too strongly. The topping scenario points to a lower-high having been carved out the week before last, and from here we should see the euro weaken towards the April trend-line and 2017 high just under 12100. From that point is where it could get interesting. A top would obviously imply that those levels won’t hold and a broad decline will commence."
• "However, a hold of the aforementioned support levels keeps the bull-flag scenario in play. If this is the case, it could take out until next month, possibly longer, before making good on a bullish breakout from the pattern and beyond the 2008 trend-line."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia House Price Index and range price movement 

2018-03-20 00:30 GMT | [AUD - HPI]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - HPI] = Change in the selling price of homes in the nation's 8 state capitals.

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From official report :

• "The price index for residential properties for the weighted average of the eight capital cities rose 1.0% in the December quarter 2017. The index rose 5.0% through the year to the December quarter 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia House Price Index news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend or to the correction to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 1.4345 weekly resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. For now, the price is on bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the correction to be continuing.

• "The British Pound continues to trade-higher after last week’s breakout above the bearish trend-line that had held the highs since January. This morning saw another bullish breakout above the vaulted 1.4000 psychological level after news of a Brexit Transition plan having been agreed upon, and with two very big drivers on the horizon for this week with tomorrow’s CPI and Thursday’s BoE rate decision, the potential remains for high levels of volatility across GBP-pairs. "
• "It’s only mid-day in the US session on Monday and already this week has seen some interesting volatility around the British Pound. The earlier announcement of an agreement on a Brexit transition plan helped to bring bulls back into the currency, with GBP/USD driving above the psychological level of 1.4000 shortly after the announcement. Thus far, buyers have come-in to show support above that price, indicating potential for bullish continuation. But tomorrow morning brings another noteworthy driver with the release of UK inflation numbers for the month of February; and later in the week we hear from the Bank of England at their first rate decision since the hawkish-shift that transpired at the bank’s Super Thursday last month."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily bearish near the bullish reversal area (based on the article)

Daily price is located below ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on moving along Senkou Span line which is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend. if the price breaks 7,663 support to below so the bearish trend to be resumed, if not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

• "Bitcoin is unwinding in a similar fashion to the Nasdaq during the dotcom bubble nearly two decades ago, but the pace is 15 times faster, global investment firm Morgan Stanley said."
• "The firm's strategist Sheena Shah said in a client note that the Nasdaq in 2000 and Bitcoin now, both rallied 250 to 280 percent during their peaks ahead of a market downturn. However, the bitcoin rally was around 15 times the speed, the strategist added."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bovespa Index - daily correction; 84,050 support is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing support level at 84,050 to below for the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started.

• "After five trading sessions down, the Ibovespa closed slightly higher (+0.30%) Tuesday at 84,163.80 points, pulled higher by steelmakers shares but capped by caution before the monetary policy decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Brazilian central bank, both expected for Wednesday. There is a fear that the new Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, who will head the meeting of the monetary authority for the first time, may indicate higher interest rates than expected."
• "Investors are also waiting for a tariff resolution on imported steel announced by the U.S. President Donald Trump. Brazil is trying to be exempted from the measure. Faced with this expectation and amid positive data on steel sales, steelmakers stocks closed higher, such as Gerdau's (+4.72%) and Usiminas (+1.94%). The shares of Vale (+1.22%) and Petrobras (+1.10%) also had a more positive day."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold - daily ranging for direction; 1,330/1,307 are the keys (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging qwithin Icxhimnoku cloud waiting for the direction for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The markets are assuming a strong probability of getting a hike at the the Federal Reserve’s March rate meeting with odds currently reflecting a 94.4% chance for 25 basis points of tightening. But this has been long known as the FOMC has been fairly clear with their intentions to further normalize policy. The bigger question, however, is what’s on the bank’s slate for the rest of the year. A total of three hikes has long been the central expectation, but after Mr. Powell’s testimony in-front of Congress earlier this month, the idea of four hikes started to more prominently enter the equation; and as we sit 24 hours ahead of tomorrow’s expected rate hike, those odds for four hikes in 2018 are sitting at 38.3%."
• "This is relevant for Gold prices as a longer-term trend has started to come into question after running into a big batch of resistance. The price of $1,357.50 marked last year’s high in Gold, and the year before that saw a high print of $1,375.15. We tested that zone just a few weeks into the New Year and then again a couple of weeks after that; but, to date, bulls have been unable to make much ground."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bovespa Index - inra-day breakout with the possible bullish reversal (based on the article)

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• "Ibovespa, the benchmark stock market index in Brazil, closed higher for the second straight session (+0.97%) Wednesday at 84,976.59 points, after the Federal Reserve signaled that it expects two more interest rate hikes this year in the U.S. - a dovish view, according to investors."
• "Fed members unanimously raised the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point (pp), to the range between 1.50% and 1.75% per year, and kept the forecast of two more interest rate hikes in 2018."
• "For Thursday, analysts believe the stock exchange may continue to reflect the Fed's decision and the decision of the Brazilian central bank Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which today cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, to 6.5% per year, a record low."

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The chart was made on H1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2018-03-22 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 12.5K
• forecast data is 19.8K
• actual data is 17.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month. 

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 17,500 to 12,480,500. Full-time employment increased 64,900 to 8,533,600 and part-time employment decreased 47,400 to 3,946,900."
• "Unemployment increased 8,900 to 734,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 13,600 to 512,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 4,700 to 221,200."
• "Unemployment rate increased by 0.1 pts to 5.6%."

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AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD - daily ranging for direction; 0.7153 is the key for the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located inside Ichimoku cloud in the ranging area of the chart. Price was formed descending triangle pattern with 0.7153 support level to be crossed to below for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The New Zealand Dollar rebounded against its US counterpart after meeting chart support but the dominant trajectory continues to favor weakness. The currency pair has been drifting downward in a choppy channel since establishing a double top above the 0.74 figure. That trend remains intact for now. From here, a daily close above resistance marked by a chart inflection point at 0.7260 targets the 0.7355-63 area (March 13 high, channel top). Alternatively, a break of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 0.7140 would also pierce the channel floor, marking down trend acceleration and exposing the 50% level at 0.7048."
• "A short NZD/USD position was activated at 0.7320. Its initial target at 0.7186 has been hit and profit was booked on half of open exposure. The remainder of the trade continues to be in play to capture any follow-on weakness. A stop-loss will be triggered on a discretionary basis if the boundaries of the overall down trend appear to have been breached."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install