Press review - page 595

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold (based on the article)

Gold/USD

XAU/USD - "Gold prices are lower for the second consecutive week with the precious metal off by nearly 0.6% to trade at 1320 ahead of the New York close on Friday. Despite the decline, price are poised to close the week well-off the lows after a sharp reversal off support on Thursday. he focus now shifts to key central bank rate decisions next week from the RBA, BoC, BoJ and ECB with the release of the February U.S. Non-Farm Payroll figures (NFP) highlighting the economic docket. For gold, the emphasis will remain on the wage growth numbers next Friday as the inflation outlook remains central focus for the Federal Reserve. As it stands, market participants are factoring three rate hikes this year, (starting with this month) and if the inflation picture improve expectations for higher rates may weigh on demand for gold which does not pay a dividend."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

DailyFX Home
DailyFX Home
  • www.dailyfx.com
It’s been a chaotic and somewhat climactic week for the US Dollar. The Greenback started the week by extending last week’s jump; and that ; as he talked down the prospect of the ‘Fed put’ while also implying that we may get as many as four rate hikes out of the United States this year. Stocks did not like this implication, and US equities...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for DAX Index (based on the article)

DAX Index

DAX Index - "There aren’t any ‘high’ impact data events scheduled for release this coming week, but on Thursday the ECB meets. Traders will be keying in on what could be next for the central bank and how the euro responds. Both the single-currency and DAX have been on the decline, so it is unclear how much impact a euro reaction may have."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

DailyFX Home
DailyFX Home
  • www.dailyfx.com
In the week ahead, there are a couple of items on the data docket, starting with ISM Non-manufacturing on Monday, however; the big event of the week arrives on Friday with the release of the February jobs report. The consensus estimate for NFPs is +195, following +200k in January. The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 4.0% from...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily ranging near bearish reversal levels (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border with the daily bearish reversal. If the price breaks 1.2154 support to below on the daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started. 

EURUSD

  • "EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails."
  • "The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into motion the notion we may be seeing a top form at an important line of resistance. And now with EUR/USD possibly putting in a lower-low from earlier last month, in the days ahead the euro may be ready to turn down from the long-term trend-line for an extended period of time."
  • "The trend since last year is still pointed up, but a strong turn down will have important support by way of the 2017 high and trend-line from April come under fire. A solid close below 12100 is seen as a possible catalyst for a sizable unwind by large speculators in the futures market. Positioning has been hovering in record territory for a while and suggests on a turn of trend there will be plenty of fuel to drive the single-currency lower."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

DailyFX Home
DailyFX Home
  • www.dailyfx.com
EUR/USD is coming perilously close to carving out a bearish price sequence in the days ahead. We’ve been discussing quite a bit lately the impact of the 2008 trend-line, and as long as the euro stays below it will struggle. The struggle could turn into an outright sell-off if a bounce soon fails. The double-top at the 2008 trend-line put into...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Services PMI and range price movement 

2018-03-05 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Services PMI]

  • past data is 54.7
  • forecast data is 54.3
  • actual data is 54.2 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

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From official report :

  • "The Caixin China Composite PMI™ data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a further strong rise in overall Chinese business activity in February, despite the pace of expansion softening since January. At 53.3 in February, the Composite Output Index fell only slightly from a seven-year record of 53.7 at the start of the year."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Services PMI news event 

USDCNH

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2018-03-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -20.6%
  • forecast data is 5.1%
  • actual data is 17.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

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From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in January after falling for three months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 17.1% in January."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event 

AUDUSD

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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5.

8731.0 - Building Approvals, Australia, Jan 2018
  • www.abs.gov.au
JANUARY KEY FIGURES JANUARY KEY POINTS TOTAL DWELLING UNITS The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in January after falling for three months. The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 17.1% in January. PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 0.1% in...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsRBA Interest Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-03-06 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Further progress in reducing unemployment and having inflation return to target is expected, although this progress is likely to be gradual. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate news event 

AUDUSD

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Cash Rate | RBA
  • www.rba.gov.au
Interest Rate Decisions Effective Date Change Cash rate target Related Documents 7 Mar 2018 7 Feb 2018 6 Dec 2017 8 Nov 2017 4 Oct 2017 6 Sep 2017 2 Aug 2017 5 Jul 2017 7 Jun 2017 3 May 2017 5 Apr 2017 8 Mar 2017 8 Feb 2017 7 Dec 2016 2 Nov 2016 5 Oct 2016 7 Sep 2016 3...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - testing 11,686 for the daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is testing 11,686 resistance level to be reversed for the primary bullish market condition.

Bitcoin/USD

  • "Bitcoin transaction fees is cheaper now, as three of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges have slashed their withdrawal fees rates by up to half. Binance, Bitfinex, and Kraken have enabled SegWit (Segregated Witness), a process to increase block size limit, and capacity to add more transactions. Transaction batching is another method being adopted to help them significantly reduce bitcoin transaction fees and relieve congestion on the bitcoin blockchain network."
  • "Kraken reduced withdrawal fees on Bitcoin to 0.0005, and on Bitcoin Cash to 0.0001. Binance also announced a 50 percent reduction in Bitcoin withdrawal fees, to 0.0005 BTC, or around $5.70 at current prices. Bitfinex slashed a third off its fees, which now stands at 0.0004. These exchanges reduced their fees amid reports that Bitcoin's transaction volume hit a two year low of 180,000. Exchanges have seen new lows in trade volume as the transaction fee went as high as $10 which was unacceptable among a large section of customers."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

Popular Cryptocurrency Exchanges Slash Bitcoin Transaction Fees
Popular Cryptocurrency Exchanges Slash Bitcoin Transaction Fees
  • 2018.06.03
  • www.rttnews.com
Bitcoin transaction fees is cheaper now, as three of the most popular cryptocurrency exchanges have slashed their withdrawal fees rates by up to half. Binance, Bitfinex, and Kraken have enabled SegWit (Segregated Witness), a process to increase block size limit, and capacity to add more transactions.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

USD/JPY - daily bearish (based on the article)

Daily price is on strong bearish trend located far below Ichimoku cloud.
- if the price breaks 105.54/105.24 support level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing;
- if the price breaks high last weekly bar at 107.67 to above so the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started.

USDJPY

  • "USD/JPY has now fallen to levels not seen since late 2016 before Dollar’s ‘Trump trade’ bounce, which came as markets got used to the shock election of the current US President. Moreover, there are few obvious signs that a turnaround is in sight."
  • "The pair is certainly lower now that it was then, but it seems to be making a moderate attempt to base around the 105.40 area which has held for the past four days or so. As you can see from the chart below this area is closer to the channel’s top than it is to its base."
  • "Should these levels continue to hold then US Dollar bulls might fancy the chances of a foray towards than channel top. However, that’s still almost a full Yen above current levels and it’s hard to see where that sort of momentum will come from on current showing. There’s also likely to be a degree of fundamental caution this week thanks to the wait for Friday when official US payroll data will be released."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

DailyFX Home
DailyFX Home
  • www.dailyfx.com
USD/JPY has now fallen to levels not seen since late 2016 before Dollar’s ‘Trump trade’ bounce, which came as markets got used to the shock election of the current US President. Moreover, there are few obvious signs that a turnaround is in sight. on the daily chart which would see a resumption of the dominant downtrend once it played out. This...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB Interest Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-03-08 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Minimum Bid Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Minimum Bid Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

  • "At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB Interest Rate Statement news event 

EURUSD

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
105249
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin: daily bearish trend to be resumed. (based on the article)

Daily price is breaking support level at 8,956 to below for the daily bearish trend to be resumed.

Bitcoin/USD

  • "New Jersey has issued a cease-and-desist order to an initial coin offering (ICO) by cryptocurrency investment company Bitcoiin. In an order issued on Wednesday, the New Jersey Bureau of Securities alleged that Bitcoiin is selling unregistered securities to investors of the US state. Bitcoiin is engaging in fraud in connection with the offer for sale of securities, the cease-and-desist order says."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

New Jersey Issues Cease-and-Desist To Bitcoiin ICO
New Jersey Issues Cease-and-Desist To Bitcoiin ICO
  • 2018.08.03
  • www.rttnews.com
New Jersey has issued a cease-and-desist order to an initial coin offering (ICO) by cryptocurrency investment company Bitcoiin. In an order issued on Wednesday, the New Jersey Bureau of Securities alleged that Bitcoiin is selling unregistered securities to investors of the US state.