Press review - page 594

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, AUD/USD and USD/CNH: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2018-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is 2.8%
• forecast data is -2.4%
• actual data is -3.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article :

• "After reporting a bigger than expected jump in orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods in the previous month, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing durable goods orders pulled back by more than expected in January."
• "The Commerce Department said durable goods orders plunged by 3.7 percent in January after surging up by a revised 2.6 percent in December."
• Andrew Hunter, U.S. Economist at Capital Economics, said, "Looking ahead, although some measures of capex intentions remain at a high level, the latest business surveys point to a further slowdown in underlying durable goods orders. That said, with the strong global backdrop set to continue benefiting manufacturers and the recent tax cuts likely to provide some further support, we still expect business investment to expand at a healthy pace over 2018 as a whole."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.

Rules to trade manually

How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - daily bearish ranging for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish ranging below Ichimoku cloud within 12,603 resistance level for rally to the bullish reversal to be started and 12,279 support level for the primary bullish trend to be resumed.

• "The ‘rally’ off the low continues to smack more of a corrective bounce than it does the beginning of a broader move higher. However, corrections (bear-flag in this case) can last for periods of time longer than expected before continuing back in the direction of the trend. Or, eventually morph into a broader rally at some point as market confidence is restored. There are signposts to watch here as this plays out."
• "There have been a couple of dives lower (2/14 & 2/22) on an intra-day basis which were met with strong buying pressure. These reversal days are helping keep the upward trend intact and a series of higher lows in place. Given how powerful these bullish reversal days have been their lows are important."
• "At the current time, should the DAX take out the 2/22 low at 12283 it will be the first break of the bullish sequence, and a sign that the correction has ended. It should be noted that each new higher-low created along the way will become the new reference point. For example, if today the market were to rally back towards a new swing high from Monday, then today’s low would become the higher low to watch."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Private Capital Expenditure and range price movement 

2018-03-01 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Private Capital Expenditure]

• past data is 1.9%
• forecast data is 1.0%
• actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Private Capital Expenditure] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of new capital expenditures made by private businesses.

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From official report :

• "The trend volume estimate for total new capital expenditure rose by 0.8% in the December quarter 2017 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 0.2%."
• "The trend volume estimate for buildings and structures fell by 0.2% in the December quarter 2017 while the seasonally adjusted estimate fell by 2.1%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Private Capital Expenditure news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - daily bearish ranging near bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on bearish ranging near Senkou Span line and 11,038/11,839 bullish reversal levels.

• "New data on the GPU market has put formal numbers behind the visible impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU prices. Unfortunately, we’ve also got fresh information suggesting the GPU price inflation cycle isn’t ending any time soon. Jon Peddie Research has released data on GPU sales in Q4 2017 showing that GPU shipments decreased 1.5 percent in Q4, in-line with normal seasonal expectations. Year-to-year GPU shipments decreased by 4.8 percent, driven mostly by declines in laptop shipments (desktop dropped 2 percent, but notebooks fell 7 percent)."
• "AMD’s market share rose by eight percent from Q3 to Q4 2017, suggesting an explanation for why Vega and Polaris chips are so over-priced (we noted this in our coverage earlier this week). If cryptocurrency miners are preferring Vega over Nvidia’s Pascal, it would explain why prices on AMD cards are blown sky-high — it reflects increased demand for those parts."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - daily ranging for the direction (based on the article)

Daily price is inside Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started for the bullish trend to be resumed or for the bearish market condition to be started.

• "The cryptocurrency space looks headed lower soon, with a couple of charts holding set-ups of intrigue given the posturing and price levels in play. Ethereum (ETH/USD) is sporting a pattern inside a pattern, while Ripple (XRP/USD) is showing little buying interest at key price support."
• "A break of the neckline and support zone (800/770) should kick off the next leg lower and further cement the broader topping pattern. Looking lower, there is trend-line support from November, then below there the 200-day MA, and Feb low at 565. The major target objective, though, lies near 400, where the apex of the wedge from late last year lies."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market - CAC 40 on daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

CAC 40 Index on daily chart is on bearish breakdown: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal with 5,073 nearest daily target to re-enter.
Daily strategy: keep short position.

• "Investors have a short memory when it comes to stock market crashes. For a simple reason: crashes do not last long, as central bankers come to the rescue with lower interest rates that make alternative investments less appealing. The trouble is that central bankers don’t lower interest rates, forever. In fact, they raise them as soon as there are signs that the economy is overheating and inflation heads above official targets."
• "In either case, higher interest rates raise the cost of funds, especially for investors borrowing from their brokers to up their equity bets, at times of euphoria (margin borrowing). Higher interest rates, in turn, set the stage for the next stock market crash, as alternative risk free investments become more appealing than stocks."
• "The trouble is that long term interest rates are rising again. The 10 year Treasury bond yields have climbed from 1.46% in July 2016 to 2.93% this week."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "It’s been a chaotic and somewhat climactic week for the US Dollar. The Greenback started the week by extending last week’s jump; and that strength largely remained until we got to Thursday. The big driver behind the Dollar appeared to be the testimony from incoming Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday; as he talked down the prospect of the ‘Fed put’ while also implying that we may get as many as four rate hikes out of the United States this year. Stocks did not like this implication, and US equities traded lower thereafter; but it was the perk in the Dollar that really seemed to get attention across FX markets as there appeared to be a very legitimate chance of the Greenback breaking its year-long slump that’s seen as much as 15% of its value erased."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBP/USD - "We continue to remain neutral on Sterling, and will likely remain this way, until some clear progress has been made in the ongoing EU/UK post-Brexit trade talks. We noted last week that a GBP sell-off may offer opportunities and while this may still be the case, we will take a risk-neutral stance and watch from the sidelines.  Ahead the UK calendar offers little hard data of note week, with attention turning to the next Brexit salvos from both sides of the negotiating table.EURGBP has picked up over the week but remains in the medium-term trading and is unlikely to break-out, either way, until Brexit negotiations produce some clear evidence that talks are moving forward."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)

USD/JPY - "The Japanese Yen was a relatively strong performer last week in the foreign exchange market. Unfortunately the same cannot be said about economic data performance from home. Local retail sales and industrial production growth all slowed down. Then, Finance Minister Taro Aso noted that there is a “labor shortage” after the unemployment rate dipped to about a 25-year low. Next week brings a plethora of event risk for the Japanese Yen. At home, the final fourth quarter 2017 GDP readings are expected to rise from preliminary estimates. However, the top-tier one will be March’s Bank of Japan monetary policy announcement."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)

AUD/USD - "The Australian Dollar remains stuck in a downtrend against its US cousin but probably remains far closer to three-year highs than its domestic authorities will like. We’ll hear from those authorities in full measure in the coming week. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia will give its March monetary policy call on Tuesday. No change to the record-low, 1.50% Official Cash Rate is expected. Indeed, rate-futures markets don’t fully price even a modest, 25 basis point increase in that until the start of next year. But the markets will probably get some sort of statement from which to gauge the RBA’s current world view. They will also hear from RBA Governor Philip Lowe. He’s been rather absent from the commentary front-line this year but will be making a speech in Sydney the day after. He can expect a virtual crowd."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).