Press review - page 585

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2018, January 21 - January 28 (based on the article)

The dollar remained on the defensive but it wasn’t one-sided anymore. The greenback fought back. GDP from the US and the UK, rate decisions in Japan and the euro, and many other events await us in a busy week. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. Japanese rate decision: Tuesday morning. The Bank of Japan recently triggered a “mini taper tantrum” in Japanese bond markets. Among developed countries, Japan has the most accommodative monetary policy. Is this about to change? Not very soon. Inflation is still too low and the BOJ would prefer maintaining a low exchange rate for the yen as long as possible. In this meeting, they are likely to maintain their bond-buying program and negative interest rates unchanged, not providing any assistance to the yen.
2. US existing home sales: Wednesday, 15:00. Sales of existing homes consist of the lion’s share of transactions of real estate. The figures beat expectations in the past three months and reached an annualized level of 5.81 million in November. We will now get the data for December. A small slide to 5.72 million is expected.
3. New Zealand inflation report:  Wednesday, 21:45. New Zealand releases its inflation report only once per quarter, making every publication have an outsized impact. The impact is strong on the RBNZ and on NZD/USD. In Q3, prices advanced by 0.5% q/q, slightly above expectations. Nevertheless, inflation does not seem to get out of control. We will receive the data for Q4 and for the whole of 2017. A more moderate increase of 0.4% is forecast.
4. Euro-zone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45, press conference at 13:30. The European Central Bank already announced in October that the QE program will run at least until September 2018, albeit at half the rate from this month, January, at 30 billion euros per month. ECB president Mario Draghi left the door open for further bond buying beyond September, in disagreement with some of the more hawkish members of the Governing Council. The meeting minutes from the December meeting showed more optimism about the economy and potentially a change in communication: perhaps an announcement about the end of QE in early 2018. However, the ascent of the euro hurts their efforts to push inflation higher and a few members began sending out warnings about the exchange rate. On this background, Draghi and co. are likely to refrain from any big announcements now, leaving the door open for extending the program beyond September, and making an official announcement a bit later on, perhaps in the March meeting, when they have new forecasts.
5. New Home Sales: Thursday, 15:00. While most transactions are of second-hand homes, sales of new ones trigger more economic activity and are also correlated with the wider economy. Sales leaped to an annualized level of 733K in November. Is it a one-off or the beginning of a bigger trend? The data for December will help in providing an answer. A significant fall to 676K is projected.
6. UK GDP: Friday, 9:30. The British economy certainly slowed down in 2017 after enjoying a great 2016. The UK lagged behind other developed economies in the first three quarters of 2017. Growth picked up in Q3 and stood at 0.4% q/q, yet all the forecasts don’t point to an acceleration in growth. We will now get a look at data for Q4 and the total for 2017. This is the first release out of three. An increase of 0.4% q/q is predicted.
7. US GDP: Friday, 13:30. The US economy woke up from its slow growth pattern and grew at above 3% in Q2 and in Q3, which saw 3.2% annualized growth. According to the data already published for Q4, we could also see a similar growth rate in the last quarter of the year. This first release may see significant revisions in the second and final publications. A similar advance of 3% is estimated for Q4.
8. US durable goods orders: Friday, 13:30. Sales of durable goods feed into the GDP data. The Fed also looks at the data as a forward-looking one. In November, headline orders rose by 1.3% but core orders dropped by 0.1%. We will now get the data for December, but it is somewhat overshadowed by the GDP report that is released at the same time. Headline orders are projected to rise by 0.9% and core orders by 0.6%.

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Stock Market Forecast For Jan 22-26 (based on the article)

• "Continued moderate bullish price action in the US majors with the VIX dropping right on queue and markets popping (pure sentiment call).  Gold and Silver pushed higher today while Oil contracted.  The NQ is still pushing into the range of our upper boundary with moderate bullish price action.  The The DOW closed +53.91 (+0.21%), the ES closed +14.50 (+0.52%) and the NQ closed 32.50 (+0.47%).  Gold closed +4.80 (+0.35%) and Silver closed +0.086 (+0.54%).  Oil closed -0.45 (-0.70%)."
• "We are expecting Metals and Oil rotate a bit lower over the next few weeks in relation to our price cycle analysis.  Gold should rotate back below $1300 and Silver should settle near $16.00 before this downward rotation ends.  Oil may rotate moderately lower over the next few weeks, but overall price cycle analysis shows consolidation and sideways trending for a few more days.  Be prepared."
• "Bitcoin reacted by consolidating within the Price Channels we have been discussing.  These channels are currently at $11,000 & $11,130.  Within this $130 range, we expect Bitcoin will consolidate before attempting a breakout move.  At this point, upside rotation is possible, but the news relating to BlockChain and Bitcoin tend to point to a lower price breakout.  Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $11,515.00.  Be prepared for additional downside risk at this point.  $7,800 is now a very real downside target."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - strong bullish on daily; 1.2323 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 1.2323 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - daily bullish ranging within the levels.

• "Euro technical positioning is warning of a turn lower against the US Dollar once again after the single currency rose to the strongest level since December 2014. Negative RSI divergence points to ebbing upside momentum andthe appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern may precede a top."
• "Near-term support comes in at 1.2164, the January 18 low, with a break below that opening the door for a retest of former resistance marked by the September 8 high at 1.2092. Alternatively, a push above the January 17 high at 1.2323 clears the way for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2458."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bovespa Index - daily bullish breakout; 81,965 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout to be located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing the resistance level at 81,965 to above for the strong bullish trend to be continuing.

• "The median forecast for Brazil's consumer price inflation in the next 12 months rose for the fourth consecutive week, to 4.00% from 3.98% a week before, according to economists surveyed by the South American country's central bank.."
• "The annual inflation rate in Brazil increased to 2.95% in December, ending the year below the bottom of the central bank's target for 2017, which ranged from 3% to 6%."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):

• AllAbsoluteStrength - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• MaksiGen_Range_Move - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• iFibonacci - indicator for MetaTrader 4
• PriceChannel_Stop - indicator for MetaTrader 4

[Sergey Golubev]

Amazon - bullish breakout to be continuing if 1,339 resistance to be broken (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing resistance level at 1,339 together with ascending triangle pattern to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.

• "Amazon’s cashier-less convenience store of the future is finally in the present. Over a year after it was announced and after a well-publicized delay, Amazon Go opened its doors to the public today, giving anyone in downtown Seattle access to 1,800 square feet of grocery staples including bread, milk, and cheese, as well as premade snacks and fresh meals. You just walk in, grab the items you want on the shelf, and walk out — Amazon automatically charges you for the items after you leave the store, and you get an electronic receipt for your purchases."
• "While Amazon will likely spend the next weeks and months ironing out logistical wrinkles, the biggest question facing the grocery store of the future remains an open one: What happens to all of those jobs if and when the cashier-less store is no longer a novelty but just the way we shop now?"

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

IMF revises up world economic growth (based on the article)

• "The International Monetary Fund yesterday revised up its forecast for world economic growth in 2018 and 2019 saying that sweeping US tax cuts were expected to boost investment in the world's largest economy and help its main trading partners. In an update of its World Economic Outlook, the IMF however warned that US growth would likely start weakening after 2022 as temporary spending incentives brought about by the tax cuts start to expire."
• "The US economy has been showing steady but underwhelming annual growth since the last recession in 2007-2009. The IMF revised up its forecast for global growth to 3.9 percent for 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point change from its last update in October."

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - testing 10,083/8,771 support levels for the daily bearish breakdown to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition: the price is on testing with support levels at 10,083 and 8,771 to below for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

• "Retail trader data shows 76.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.9% higher than yesterday and 5.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% higher than yesterday and 21.9% higher from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Bitcoin trading bias."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - weekly bullish ranging waiting for direction (based on the article)

The weekly price is above Ichimoku cloud for the bullish ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

• 19,485 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be continuing if broken, and
• 8,771 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started.

Most likely scenario for the rest of January and whole the February: weekly bullish ranging within the levels.

• "Recent downside price rotation in Bitcoin has caused quite a bit of concern for Crypto traders and investors. This recent breakdown move represented a failure of continued strength and has, and still is, testing critical support for a bottom. There are many external factors that are driving the demand and price for Bitcoin currently. The most recent news is that Crypto ETFs may run into some regulatory issues and that fears of a continued government crackdown may crash prices. Demand is still strong from believers in Blockchain and Cryptos, though, and we believe this contraction in price may continue for a few months."
• "As Bitcoin continues to find its roots in economic function, the Blockchain technology continues to be validated and adopted by many. The CryptoCoins themselves may become more valuable as a trading instrument as well as a futures instrument. When the ETFs hit the markets, we believe BlockChain and Cryptos will become well entrenched in society and will establish a base valuation (of sorts)."
• "In the meantime, be prepared for some wild volatility and rotation. The lower support levels, as shown on this chart, are key to the upside potential of Bitcoin. If that level is broken, then we could see a dramatic collapse in price to test the $4000 level. Until then, we are within an $8k~10k rotational range that will continue to tighten as the Pennant formation constricts. It should make for a wild ride – either way."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - sell at 8,771; run away at 2,644 (based on the article)

The weekly price is testing 8,771 support level to below for the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started. By the way, the support level at 2,644 is the final level for the weekly bearish reversal in long-term situation for example.

• "Global investment giant Goldman Sachs has warned its high networth clients that Bitcoin's price surge has pushed the virtual currency into the bubble territory, that dwarfs the past bubbles in dot-com companies and tulip bulbs."
• ""Bitcoin's meteoric rise in a short time has dwarfed the rise seen during the dot-com bubble," Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group said."
• "We also believe that cryptocurrencies have moved beyond bubble levels in financial markets, and even beyond the levels seen during the Dutch "tulipmania" between 1634 and early 1637."
• "The mania surrounding cryptocurrencies is probably even better illustrated by the price surges seen in companies that announce some type of affiliation with blockchain technology or cryptocurrencies," the bank said.

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

[Sergey Golubev]

Cryptocurrecy news: Crypto Hysteria Pushes GPU Prices Sky High (based on the article)

Ethereum/Usd intra-day price is ranging near and below Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart.

If the price breaks 1,242 resistance to above so the price will be fully reversed to the primary bullish market condition.
If the price breaks 637 support level to below so the daily bearish reersal will be started with the weekly medium-tern secondary correction for example.

• "One of the most important choices every PC builder makes is which graphics card to buy. That choice has been getting much more stressful lately as the price of GPUs skyrockets. You can thank the surge of interest in cryptocurrency for the increase in graphics card prices, but Nvidia is trying to do something about it. “Trying” is the operative word here."
• "As recently as the middle of last year, you could get a high-end GPU from Nvidia for around retail price. The cost of AMD’s cards has been on an upward trend for even longer, though. Late last year, increased interest in cryptocurrency sent speculative virtual money enthusiasts running for their nearest GPU retailer to pick up equipment for a mining operation. That’s left precious few cards for gamers who just want to frag some noobs."
• "Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are too mature now for a small-scale GPU mining operation to net much cash. Even newer coins like Monero might only make an operator the equivalent of a few dollars per day, but a jump in the value of the coins could make them instant millionaires. As a result, it’s a terrible time to buy a GPU for gaming. Cards like the GTX 1070 that cost under $500 last year are now selling for closer to $1,000. Even used cards will cost you $800 or more."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread