Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 6

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Gold is boxed between the 200 day EMA round the 1266 level and the 55 day EMA around the 1285 level. The consolidation may continue between those two level, but a bullish breakout may take the price of gold to the 1300 level. A bearish breakdown will leave the road clear for the price to drop all the way to the 1204 level, with some pull backs on the way down.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.15 15:05

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Advance Retail Sales

2017-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in October as an increase in purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods offset a decline in demand for building materials, suggesting consumer spending remained fairly strong early in the fourth quarter."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Wednesday retail sales increased 0.2 percent last month. Data for September was revised to show sales jumping 1.9 percent rather than the previously reported 1.6 percent advance."
  • "Retail sales increased 4.6 percent on an annual basis."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: rrange price movement by U.S. Retail Sales news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.22 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CNH and Gold: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-11-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From cnbc article :

  • "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October after three straight months of hefty gains, but a sustained increase in shipments pointed to strong momentum in the economy as the year winds down."
  • "Shipments of core capital goods advanced 0.4 percent last month after accelerating by 1.2 percent in September. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement."

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USD/JPY M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.05 08:29

GOLD (XAU/USD) - bearish ranging near daily bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging near and below Ichimoku cloud for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the bullish reversdal to be started. The key support level is 1,270 so if the price breaks this level to below together with descending triangle pattern formed so the primary daily bearish trend will be resumed, otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "Coming into the year, Gold prices were dropping like a rock. This was on the back of the surge being seen in the U.S. Dollar as the ‘Trump Trade’ got further priced-through capital markets. But as that Dollar strength viciously turned into aggressive weakness in the first quarter of the year, Gold prices began to lift-higher. This lasted all the way into June, where a double top around the $1,296 level finally initiated some element of resistance. This is a level that remains resistant, as we saw just last week when price action tried to break through on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday; only to fail as sellers pushed back down towards the confluent support zone that we’ve been following. "
  • "Once either of these sides give way, traders can begin plotting longer-term directional approaches in Gold. Until then, be cautious around getting caught in between the cracks of support and resistance on near-term Gold charts."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.13 20:39

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD: Federal Funds Rate

2017-12-13 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate. Averaging through hurricane-related fluctuations, job gains have been solid, and the unemployment rate declined further. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.""In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/4 to 1‑1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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XAU/USD M5: rrange price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.28 07:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD: The Conference Board United States Consumer Confidence Index

2017-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 128.6
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 122.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in December, following a modest improvement in November. The Index now stands at 122.1 (1985=100), down from 128.6 in November. The Present Situation Index increased from 154.9 to 156.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 111.0 last month to 99.1 this month."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.28 11:22

Gold Price Forecast For 2018, 2019, 2020 And 2021 (based on the article)



  • Gold Price forecast for December 2017.
    In the beginning price at 1272 Dollars. High price 1357, low 1227. The average for the month 1287. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1292, change for December 1.6%.
  • Gold Price forecast for January 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1292 Dollars. High price 1361, low 1231. The average for the month 1295. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1296, change for January 0.3%.
  • Gold Price forecast for February 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1296 Dollars. High price 1355, low 1226. The average for the month 1292. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1290, change for February -0.5%.
  • Gold Price forecast for March 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1290 Dollars. High price 1357, low 1227. The average for the month 1292. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1292, change for March 0.2%.
  • Gold Price forecast for April 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1292 Dollars. High price 1306, low 1182. The average for the month 1256. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1244, change for April -3.7%.
  • Gold Price forecast for May 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1244 Dollars. High price 1365, low 1235. The average for the month 1286. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1300, change for May 4.5%.
  • Gold Price forecast for June 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1300 Dollars. High price 1395, low 1263. The average for the month 1322. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1329, change for June 2.2%.
  • Gold Price forecast for July 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1329 Dollars. High price 1367, low 1237. The average for the month 1309. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1302, change for July -2.0%.
  • Gold Price forecast for August 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1302 Dollars. High price 1377, low 1245. The average for the month 1309. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1311, change for August 0.7%.
  • Gold Price forecast for September 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1311 Dollars. High price 1388, low 1256. The average for the month 1319. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1322, change for September 0.8%.
  • Gold Price forecast for October 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1322 Dollars. High price 1388, low 1256. The average for the month 1322. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1322, change for October 0.0%.
  • Gold Price forecast for November 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1322 Dollars. High price 1428, low 1292. The average for the month 1351. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1360, change for November 2.9%.
  • Gold Price forecast for December 2018.
    In the beginning price at 1360 Dollars. High price 1504, low 1360. The average for the month 1414. The Gold Price forecast at the end of the month 1432, change for December 5.3%.


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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

GOLD (XAU/USD) - weekly bullish ranging for the bullish continuation or to the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging bullish condition located above Ichimoku cloud. The price is ranging within 1,236/1,299 support resistance levels for the bullish trnd to be continuing or for the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 69.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.3 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.4% lower than yesterday and 19.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.7% higher than yesterday and 2.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.06 10:58

GOLD - daily bullish above high last weekly bar; 1,325 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal. For now, the price is breaking the resistance level at 1,325 for the bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 64.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.81 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 12.8% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.4% lower than yesterday and 12.7% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.18 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Housing Starts

2018-01-18 13:30 GMT | [USD - Housing Starts]

  • past data is 1.30M
  • forecast data is 1.28M
  • actual data is 1.19M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Housing Starts] = Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month.

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From cnbc article :

  • "U.S. homebuilding fell more than expected in December, recording its biggest drop in just over a year, amid a steep decline in the construction of single-family housing units following two months of hefty gains."
  • "Housing starts decreased 8.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.192 million units, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. November's sales pace was revised up to 1.299 million units from the previously reported 1.297 million units."
  • "December's percentage drop was the largest since November 2016. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts decreasing to a pace of 1.275 million units last month."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Housing Starts news events


==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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