Forecast and Levels for Bovespa Index - page 2

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Sergey Golubev:
This server:



I know nothing about them but I tried to find something after Alpari removed the most of the indicatives and shares so I had to find some server in MT4 which is providing indexes and shares.
I did not install new MT4 instance - I just used same one - i opened demo account by searching new server inside same MT4 instance.

It may be good to have indexes and shares in MT5 because in my opinion - MT5 is more suitable for technical analysis for example (MT4 is more used for trading for now).

Thanks, in MT5 I don't know any broker with such long history of Bovespa index, so this is a great discovery even using MT4.

I totally agree about use MT4 and/or MT5 for any technical analysis, mainly this concept "good developed technical analysis system = trading system"

In this sense, we can imagine a universal EA for MT4/MT5 where you have indicators as parameters, tested on charts and/or strategy tester, to support several trading tactics and strategies.

Or any other blackbox, like Forbes solution you described, to convert technical analysis relevant information complexity to a userfriendly format.

And in my opinon MT4/MT5 are strong systems to develop such solutions.

As you told your dream, my one in this area is the following:

A chatbot using a smart system (machine intelligence?) that emulates an analyst and 'talks' with you (using text, charts or speech messages), sending ready technical/fundamental/quantitative/etc analysis and signals suggestions (like your idea about pending orders) and where you can interact with and choose to enable them automatically or manually to execute in your account.
 

 

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Forecast for Q2'16 - levels for Bovespa Index

Sergey Golubev, 2016.04.30 16:32

Yes, I know that. But the Index was turned to the primary bullish in the medium-term situation (D1 timeframe), and it was turned to the bullish (for the 3rd time sorry) in the long-term for W1 timeframe.

Any expetation is good (expectation for impeachment, and expectation against it) if it is helping to turn the Country Index to the global bullish market condition :)




Just a little update concerning Bovespa Index on weekly chart:

  • the price is located near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA for the ranging condition;
  • price is on ranging within 55820 resistance level and 47920 support level;
  • if the price breaks 47920 support to below on weekly close bar so the bearish reversal of the weekly price movement will be started;
  • if the price breaks 55820 resistance level to above on weekly close bar so the primary bullish trend will be resumed.


Most likely scenario: bearish reversal or ranging bearish near and below 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2016.06.25 09:47

Brexit - "Investors overreacted," University of Michigan business professor Erik Gordon said Friday in an email (adapted from the article)


  • Eric Wiegand, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Wealth Management: "With last night’s result, that’s certainly unwinding. It caught the consensus on the wrong side yet again. Complacency had crept back into the markets."
  • Bob Stovall, U.S. equity strategist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "Falling prices will unveil long-term buying opportunities, particularly for mid- and small-cap stocks. In the short term, markets will trade on emotion, so make sure you don’t end up becoming your portfolio’s worst enemy."
  • Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial: "Look for gold to do well as part of the safe-haven trade in addition to the move into treasuries."
  • JBC Energy analysts: "While we would argue that the British economy and its currency have not really lost 5 to 10% of its relative competitiveness overnight on a sustained basis, the level of uncertainty in the shorter term is definitely very problematic, and bets on any type of reversal do not sound like a good idea to us until the actual effects of last night’s decision become more tangible and quantifiable."
  • U.S. Bank Wealth Management's Wiegand: "In a low-growth environment, uncertainty or increased concerns really do create tremendous volatility."
  • Axel Merk, president of Merk Investments: "One could argue that the U.K. will remain in the EU for a minimum of two years, as formal notice that triggers the two-year countdown to leave most likely won't be given for months, but the markets don't wait. Instead, they are concerned about a disintegration of the EU, (and) they are concerned about a waning influence of the U.S. over the EU."
Bovespa Index - daily correction, weekly ranging to the bearish reversal:
  • Daily price is located above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA for the bullish market condition: the price is on secondary correction for 50,350 support level to be testing with 48,185 bearish reversal level as a nearest daily target. If the price breaks 48,185 level to below so the reversal of the price movement from the bullish to the daily bearish market condition will be started; if the price breaks 52,830 resistance to below so the bullish trend will be continuing; otherwise - the price will be on ranging bullish condition near bearish reversal area of the chart.
  • Weekly price is on ranging located near 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area waiting for the direction of the terend to be started. if the price breaks 48.185 support level to below on weekly close bar so the long-term bearish trend will be started; if the price breaks 52,830 resistance to above so the primary bullish trend will be resumed; if not so the price will continuing the ranging condition near reversal area.





 


Weekly price is above 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bullish area of the chart with the ranging within the following support/resistance levels:

  • 70,940 resistance level located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed, and
  • 53,905 support level located in the beginning of the bearish reversal to be started.

If the weekly price breaks 70,940 resistance so the bullish trend will be resumed, and the bearish reversal may eb started from 53,905 support crossing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.11 09:53

Bovespa Index - intra-day correction; 66,190 is the key (based on the article)

The price on hourly chart is on ranging correction by crossing 100 SMA together with 66,700 support level to below for the correction to be continuing with 66,190 bearish reversal target.


  • "Ibovespa, the benchmark stock index in Brazil, closed down 1% at 66,992.09 points Thursday, reflecting investors' fears that the government might miss its fiscal targets for 2017 and 2018 and amid mutual threats between the United States and North Korea."
  • "According to Pedro Galdi, an analyst at Magliano Corretora, Brazil's Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles said that a revision of the fiscal target would occur in September, but there are reports that the announcement would come sooner. "The speech is not coherent. Moreover, it is not known if the target will indicate a primary deficit greater than R$ 159 billion, which could make rating agencies lower Brazil," he added."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.22 06:44

Bovespa Index - daily ranging inside Ichimoku cloud; 76,251 is the key (based on the article)

The price on daily chart is on ranging market condition located inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for the direction of the trend to be started: 76,251 resistance level for the bullish reversal and 71,020 support level for the bearish trend to be resumed.


  • "Ibovespa, the benchmark stock market index in Brazil, closed up 1.57% at 74,594.61 points on Tuesday amid a better external scene and investors' view that president Michel Temer is closer to get the pension reform bill voted in the House of Representatives later this year."
  • ""In the external scenario, it was a very positive day for risky assets. There was news that led to a positive expectation on the pension reform bill, which could be voted at the beginning of December, giving the market a boost," said Rafael Passos, an analyst at Guide Investimentos." 
  • "According to H. Commcor's chief operating officer, Ari Santos, the cabinet reform promoted by Temer leads the market to believe that he would have the political strength to pass the pension reform bill."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.12 10:44

Bovespa Index - bullish breakout; 71,441 is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on active bullish breakout: the price broke 71,441 resistance level to above in August last year and was moved to 79,895 resistance level trying to break it for the second time for now. If the price breaks this key level so the strong bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "S&P Global Ratings downgraded the sovereign ratings of Brazil citing less timely and effective policymaking. The agency lowered the ratings to 'BB-' from 'BB', with a stable outlook. The current rating is three notches below the investment grade."
  • "According to S&P, the absence of cohesive political support for corrective economic measures diminishes the prospects for a solid and prompt response following the 2018 elections."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.15 07:12

Bovespa Index - strong bullish trend; 79,880 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the H1 chart is above 100 SMA/200 SMA rebersal levels - the price is located in the bullish area of the chart for resistance level at 79,880 together with symmetric triangle pattern to be testing to above for the strong bullish trend to be continuing...


  • "Ibovespa, the benchmark stock market index in Brazil, closed slightly lower (-0.02%) Friday at 79,349.12 points, even after S&P downgraded Brazil's credit rating from BB to BB-. The losses were limited by bets from some investors that the Brazilian Congress could pass the pension reform next month."

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The chart was made on H1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.23 07:05

Bovespa Index - daily bullish breakout; 81,965 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish breakout to be located above Ichimoku cloud: the price is testing the resistance level at 81,965 to above for the strong bullish trend to be continuing.


  • "The median forecast for Brazil's consumer price inflation in the next 12 months rose for the fourth consecutive week, to 4.00% from 3.98% a week before, according to economists surveyed by the South American country's central bank.."
  • "The annual inflation rate in Brazil increased to 2.95% in December, ending the year below the bottom of the central bank's target for 2017, which ranged from 3% to 6%."

==========

The chart was made on W1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 
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