Forecast and levels for EURO - page 38

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.12 14:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States  Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2020-05-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is -0.4%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.8 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the largest monthly decline since December 2008, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.3 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event


GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

 

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Eurozone Industrial Production Falls Sharply In March

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.13 13:02

Eurozone Industrial Production Falls Sharply In March

Eurozone industrial production decreased sharply in March, as several countries went into lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus, or Covid-19, pandemic, preliminary data from Eurostat showed on Wednesday.


Industrial production decreased 11.3 percent month-on-month, which was slightly less than the 12.1 percent slump economists had forecast. In February, output fell 0.1 percent.

Among different industrial groups, durable consumer goods logged the biggest decrease of 26.3 percent. Capital goods and intermediate goods also logged double-digit declines.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production decreased 12.9 percent in March after a revised 2.2 percent drop in February.

In the EU, industrial production fell 10.4 percent monthly, after remaining unchanged in February. Compared to the same month last year, production shrunk 11.8 percent.

source..


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.25 18:32

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2020-05-25 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

  • past data is 74.2
  • forecast data is 78.3
  • actual data is 79.5 according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

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From official report :

  • "Sentiment among German companies has recovered somewhat after a catastrophic few months. The ifo Business Climate Index rose from 74.2 points (seasonally adjusted) in April to 79.5 points in May. Even though companies once again assessed their current situation as slightly worse, their expectations for the coming months improved considerably. Nevertheless, many companies are still pessimistic about their business. The gradual easing of the lockdown offers a glimmer of hope."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 
Weekly breakout with the bullish reversal is just started on open weekly bar.

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Eurozone: unemployment at 7.3%; industrial producer prices down by 2.0%

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.03 12:32

Eurozone: unemployment at 7.3%; industrial producer prices down by 2.0%



Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, were published the following figures on Wednesday: "In April 2020, the second month after COVID-19 containment measures were implemented by most Member States, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.3%, up from 7.1% in March 2020."
The number of unemployed increased by 211,000 from March to 11.919 million in April.

Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.0% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU, compared with March 2020, and In April 2020, compared with April 2019, industrial producer prices decreased by 4.5% in the euro area and by 4.3% inthe EU.

official source..

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.04 14:20

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates, Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2020-06-04 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Main Refinancing Rate]

  • past data is 0.00%
  • forecast data is 0.00%
  • actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Main Refinancing Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

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From official report :

  • "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB  Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB Interest Rates news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Video conference of the Eurogroup, 11 June 2020: Economic situation and policy measures to support the recovery

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.07 07:27

Video conference of the Eurogroup, 11 June 2020: Economic situation and policy measures to support the recovery


The European Commission’s proposed €750 billion package to help the EU economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic will likely be the center of attention this week.


It is expected to be discussed at Thursday’s Eurogroup meeting and hopes of an accord should keep EUR/USD on an upward trajectory even though the plan requires the agreement of all 27 EU member states, which is unlikely for several more weeks.

For now, EUR is reacting positively to the latest stimulus moves, from the ECB and Germany as well as the European Commission, and will likely continue to do so.

more..


 

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German exports: -24.0% on the previous month and -31.1% in April 2020 year on year

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.09 11:10

German Exports Fall Most Since 1950


Germany's exports declined at the sharpest pace since records began in 1950 due to the lockdown measures taken by economies across the globe, data published by Destatis revealed Tuesday: "Germany exported goods to the value of 75.7 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 72.2 billion euros in April 2020. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that exports decreased by 31.1% and imports by 21.6% in April 2020 year on year. That was the largest decline of exports in a month compared with the same month a year earlier since the introduction of foreign trade statistics in 1950. The last time German imports went down that much was in July 2009 during the financial crisis (-23.6%)."

Consequently, the trade surplus declined to EUR 3.5 billion, the lowest since December 2000, from EUR 17.8 billion in the same period last year.

source

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.21 08:55

EUR/USD - bullish ranging near the bearish reversal; 1.1422 is the key resistance (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "There had been hopes that a solid economic recovery was on the way but that now seems in doubt, and the chances are that investors will again opt for safe havens like the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen rather than the Euro, the British Pound or the Australian Dollar."
  • "This has already begun to take its toll on EUR/USD, which is now well down from the high above 1.14 reached earlier this month, and further losses from here would be no surprise."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.28 06:39

EUR/USD - daily bullish ranging within 1.1353/1.1168 support/resistance levels (based on the article)

EURUSD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The coming week sees the start of a new month and a new quarter, when portfolio rebalancing could result in turbulent trading in major assets, including EUR/USD and the Euro crosses. Data in the coming week include inflation and unemployment statistics from several EU countries and the Eurozone as a whole. However, with global markets expected to remain dominated by risk-on/risk-off trades on good news/bad news about the coronavirus, the numbers are not expected to have an impact on EUR/USD, which will likely continue to rise when the Covid-19 news is good and fall when it is bad."
  • "EUR/USD fell back in the days ahead of and after the last quarter end on March 31. This time round, the outperformance of US stocks compared with Eurozone stocks in Q2 could lead to flows out of the US and into Europe, boosting EUR/USD. However, that could be offset by the Euro’s outperformance of the US Dollar over the same period."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.05 07:05

EUR/USD - daily bullish ranging; 1.1422 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The European Council President is expected to propose a more modest EU budget this week. The Council is hoping EU leaders will agree to it at a summit later this month but wrangling over how best to help the weaker members of the blocrecover from the Covid-19 pandemic will likely continue. Unless the EU governments can sort out their disagreements soon, a drop is likely in EUR/USD in this year’s third quarter."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


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