Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 2

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.08 07:10

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-05-08 04:25 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. 

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From forextutor article:

  • "In Yuan terms the world’s second-largest economy ran an April trade surplus of 262.3 billion. That was well above both the 197 billion expected and the March level of 164.3 billion. However, the month’s rise in exports missed expectations, coming in at 14.3% when the markets had hoped for a 16.8% rise. Imports missed too. They rose 18.6% against expectations of 29.3%"

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Trade Balance news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.10 08:01

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2017-05-10 02:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

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From rttnews article:

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 1.2 percent on year in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday."
  • "The bureau also said that producer prices climbed 6.4 percent on year - shy of forecasts for 6.7 percent and down from 7.6 percent a month earlier."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Chinese CPI news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.13 07:08

What is the difference between CNY and CNH currencies? (based on the article)

"Prior to the establishment of the yuan offshore market, China's capital control rules did not allow renminbi (denoted CNY) to be traded outside of China.  In-fact, it was a proposal by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to allow renminbi trading in Hong Kong that opened the dialog of an offshore renminbi market." 


"On July 19th, 2010, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the HKMA jointly announced that the renminbi would be deliverable in Hong Kong, thus creating the offshore renminbi (CNH) market where foreign individuals and corporations are allowed to buy, hold or sell CNH.  These investors are restricted from participating in the onshore CNY market (aside from Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors)."


"These developments were part of China's path toward internationalization of the renminbi, and to make it an international trade currency of choice (latest achievement being renminbi's inclusion into the IMF's SDR)."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.15 08:32

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and range price movement 

2017-05-15 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. 

==========

From official report:

  • "China's industrial production and retail sales growth decelerated more-than-expected in April reflecting weak foreign demand and domestic spending at the start of second quarter, data published by the National Bureau of Statistics showed Monday."
  • "Industrial production expanded 6.5 percent year-on-year in April, weaker than the 7.6 percent rise in March. Economists had forecast a 7 percent increase."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Industrial Production news event



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 17:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-05-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 119.4
  • forecast data is 120.1
  • actual data is 117.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report:

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May."
  • “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting little change in overall economic conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less upbeat than in April, but overall remain optimistic that the economy will continue expanding into the summer months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.08 07:50

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-06-08 04:30 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 262B
  • forecast data is 336B
  • actual data is 282B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month. 

==========

From investing.com article:

  • "China reported a trade data surplus of $40.81 billion, narrower than the $46.32 billion expected, but wider than the $38.05 billion seen last month with exports up 8.7%, more than the 7.0% gain seen and imports up 14.8%, beating the 8.5% gain seen year-on-year.""The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.05% to 96.72."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by CGAC Trade Balance news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 07:57

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Output and range price movement 

2017-06-14 03:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. 

==========

From MarketWatch article :

  • "Industrial output growth in China held steady in May following a strong start to the year, data official data showed Wednesday."
  • "Value-added industrial output, a rough proxy for economic growth, in May rose 6.5% from a year earlier, the same pace as in April, the National Bureau of Statistics said. The increase was slightly above a median forecast of 6.4% growth from a Wall Street Journal poll of 11 economists."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.26 15:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-06-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.5%
  • actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From MarketWatch article:

  • "Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar decline in April, the government reported Monday."
  • "A key measure of business investment known as core capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of 2017. Investment had accelerated late last year after a prolonged slump, but the recent upsurge now appears to have tapered off. U.S. futures markets pointed to a higher opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 13:11

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH"In two weeks, China will release the second quarter GDP. As a major component to the economy, manufacturers’ performance could largely impact the overall growth in the second quarter and whether the country can maintain the desired expansion when slowdown is already seen. Thus, the June Caixin PMI print will not only be an important gauge due to its own significance; it is also a leading indicator for China’s economic growth in the second quarter and therefore worth to keep an eye on."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 09:02

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-07-03 02:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

==========

From official report :

  • "At 50.4 in June, the seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – moved back above the 50.0 no-change mark. This was up from 49.6 and signalled an improvement in the health of the sector after a marginal deterioration in May. Operating conditions have now strengthened in nine of the ten past months, though the latest improvement was only slight."
  • "Relatively subdued customer demand also weighed on optimism towards the 12-month business outlook, with confidence edging down to a six-month low in June."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event



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