Forecast and levels for USD/CNH - page 5

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.19 09:01

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-10-19 03:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

  • past data is 6.9%
  • forecast data is 6.8%
  • actual data is 6.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

==========

From official report :

  • "China's gross domestic product expanded 1.7 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday. That was in line with forecasts and down from 1.8 percent in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 6.9 percent - unchanged from the previous three months and exceeding expectations for 6.8 percent."
  • "The bureau also said that industrial production jumped an annual 6.6 percent in September - beating forecasts for 6.5 percent and up from 6.0 percent in August."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 


==========

The chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.27 15:52

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USDUSD/CNH and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-10-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the third quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent."
  • "The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29, 2017."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


==========

Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:47

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)


USD/CNH"A key message sent from the 19th Party Congress is that China’s growth target has been revised: the country will no longer set high GDP growth rate as a goal; instead, it will shift to focus on the “quality” of the growth. Five years ago, the 18th Party Congress set a target to double GDP in 2020 of that in 2010. Yet, this is removed in the work report delivered by 19th Party General Secretary and China’s President, Xi Jinping. In a press conference this week, Yang Weimin, a senior official, told that this removal is intentional, as the quality of the economic expansion has not been satisfying. This means over the following period, we may see even lower growth rate – a rate below the current target of 6.5% is possible. Also, the top Party leaders believe that China is still in the transformation phase; the recovery seen recently may not be sustainable until three tasks are finished: switching to a new development path, optimizing the economic structure and generating new growth monuments. These goals will take a “relatively long time” to achieve, according to Yang Weimin. This indicates the economy still faces considerable risks; the recovery process could take years to complete. Amid a slower recovery than its U.S. counterpart, the Chinese Yuan could bear additional bearish pressure against the Dollar in the long run. New party leaders have disclosed major strategies for the economy over a time frame from now to the mid-century. Continuing to implement supply-side reform is the first and one of the most important on the list. This includes cutting excess production, which is a pain in the short-term but could generate gains in the long-term. Next week, China will release both the official and Caixin PMI prints for October: the official PMI is expected to drop to 52.1 from 52.4 in the month prior; the Caixin PMI is expected to hold at 51.0. With the on-going supply-side reform, PMI gauges could continue to whipsaw over the following months."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.09 07:54

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China CPI and range price movement 

2017-11-09 01:30 GMT | [CNY - CPI]

  • past data is 1.6%
  • forecast data is 1.8%
  • actual data is 1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. 

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Consumer prices in China were up 1.9 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday."
  • "The bureau also said that producer prices advanced an annual 6.9 percent - unchanged from the previous month but topping forecasts for 6.6 percent."

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USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China CPI news event 


==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.22 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPYUSD/CNH and Gold: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-11-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From cnbc article :

  • "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October after three straight months of hefty gains, but a sustained increase in shipments pointed to strong momentum in the economy as the year winds down."
  • "Shipments of core capital goods advanced 0.4 percent last month after accelerating by 1.2 percent in September. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement."

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USD/JPY M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.30 09:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USDAUD/USD and USD/CAD: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing Index

2017-11-30 01:00 GMT | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 51.6
  • forecast data is 51.5
  • actual data is 51.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From chinadailyasia article :

  • "China's manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace in November, official data showed Thursday. The country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.8, up from 51.6 in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)."
  • "China's manufacturing PMI has been in positive territory for 16 consecutive months."

==========

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by China Manufacturing PMI news events


==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.01 07:15

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: Caixin Manufacturing PMI and range price movement 

2017-12-01 01:45 GMT | [CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions continued to improve in November, albeit at a marginal pace. Output and new orders both rose only modestly, leading to a softer expansion in buying activity. At the same time, companies faced a further sharp increase in average input costs, that led to a notable rise in selling prices. Efforts to cut costs contributed to another fall in staffing levels, with the rate of decline quickening to a three-month record."
  • "The seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy – registered 50.8 in November, down from 51.0 in October. While remaining above the crucial 50.0 value, the index dipped to its lowest level for five months to signal only a marginal upturn in operating conditions."

==========

USD/CNH M15: range price movement by Caixin Manufacturing PMI news event 


==========

The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicator (free to download):


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.28 07:07

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD: The Conference Board United States Consumer Confidence Index

2017-11-29 13:30 GMT | [USD - Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 128.6
  • forecast data is 128.2
  • actual data is 122.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® decreased in December, following a modest improvement in November. The Index now stands at 122.1 (1985=100), down from 128.6 in November. The Present Situation Index increased from 154.9 to 156.6, while the Expectations Index declined from 111.0 last month to 99.1 this month."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


==========

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


==========

XAU/USD M1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events


==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


Chris Mukengeshayi
1466
Chris Mukengeshayi  
Sergey Golubev:


Good day Mr Sergey, I have been trying to understand how to interpret or read the brown triangle on one of the above comment, can you explain to me how to read and interpret the market, thanks

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
106094
Sergey Golubev  
Chris Mukengeshayi:

Good day Mr Sergey, I have been trying to understand how to interpret or read the brown triangle on one of the above comment, can you explain to me how to read and interpret the market, thanks


Which brown triangle?
Descending or ascending patterns? If yes so look at the following description:

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.09.05 09:53

3 Easy Triangle Patterns Every Forex Trader Should Know - Symmetrical Triangle



The first type of pattern is the symmetrical triangle pattern. It is formed by two intersecting trendlines of similar slope converging at a point called the apex.

In the above example of a symmetrical triangle you can easily see on the AUDUSD 1-Hour chart the intersection of a rising trendline and a downtrend line at the bottom of a larger trend. Sellers are unable to push prices lower and buyers can’t push price to new highs.



Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.09.05 09:56

3 Easy Triangle Patterns Every Forex Trader Should Know - Descending Triangle

The last triangle pattern is the descending triangle pattern. The descending triangle is characterized by an area of strong support intersecting a downward sloping trend line. When chartist see this pattern as part of a larger downtrend, they look for a continuation of the downtrend. A close break and close below the area of support would be a confirmation of this pattern signaling traders to enter short with a stop above the top of the pattern.




Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Market Condition Evaluation based on standard indicators in Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev, 2013.09.05 09:56

3 Easy Triangle Patterns Every Forex Trader Should Know - Descending Triangle

The last triangle pattern is the descending triangle pattern. The descending triangle is characterized by an area of strong support intersecting a downward sloping trend line. When chartist see this pattern as part of a larger downtrend, they look for a continuation of the downtrend. A close break and close below the area of support would be a confirmation of this pattern signaling traders to enter short with a stop above the top of the pattern.




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