Press review - page 626

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - Bearish Breakdown (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin prices dropped significantly today, falling below $5,400 and reaching their lowest since late last year. The digital currency declined to as little as $5,390.12, losing more than 10% in the space of 24 hours and hitting a fresh 2018 low."
• "This downward movement took place as the broader cryptocurrency market also suffered notable losses, declining from a total value of $210 billion earlier in the day to almost $180 billion by roughly 15:30 UTC (approximately 10:30 a.m. ET)."
• "When explaining what caused the sharp decline in bitcoin prices, analysts generally pointed to either technical analysis or the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming hard fork in bitcoin cash."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Dow Jones Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2018-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.1%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From morningstar article :

• "Retail sales in the US increased by more than anticipated in the month of October, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday. The Commerce Department said retail sales advanced by 0.8% in October following a revised 0.1% dip in September."
• "The bigger than expected increase in retail sales was partly due to a spike in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which surged up by 1.1% in October after dipping by 0.1% in September."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Dow Jones Index H4: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - long-term downtrend to be started (based on the article)

• "October ended with the Euro seemingly set to suffer deeper losses against the US Dollar. A look at the monthly chart reveals prices breached range top resistance-turned-support centered around the 1.15 figure – a pivotal inflection point since May 2015 – to suggest that a move toward a four-year range floor near 1.05 may well be in the cards in the months ahead."
• "The bearish bias remains upon examination of more actionable positioning on the daily chart, but the setup is far less immediately actionable than it might seem at first glance. Prices are resting resistance guiding the downswing from the downswing started in late September. It is thus far unclear whether this barrier will hold and bearish is resumption is to follow or if a breakout will precede a larger upside retracement."
• "Resistance is now at 1.1432, with a break above that confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 1.1543-54 inflection region. Alternatively, a turn back below the 1.1279-1.1314 zone paves the way for a challenge of the swing low at 1.1218. The absence of a bearish reversal signal or a clear-cut break makes it unclear which scenario might prevail however."

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The chart was made with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Double Smoothed Stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Bitcoin - What's Next - $2,000 Or $10,000? (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin could be heading down to $2,000 or up to $10,000, depending on the forecasting model applied to estimate the digital currency’s “intrinsic” or “fair” value."
• "Bitcoin has been falling fast, very fast, breaking one price “floor” after another."

============

The chart was made on monthly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Most volatile currency pairs (based on the article)

• "FX markets are susceptible to a range of factors which affect their volatility, and many traders look to tailor their strategies to capitalize on the most volatile currency pairs."
• "Volatility, usually measured using the standard deviation or variance of a currency, gives traders an expectation of how much a currency can deviate from its current price over a certain period. The higher the volatility of the currency, the higher the risk. Volatility and risk are usually used as interchangeable terms."
• "Different currency pairs have different volatilities. The major currency pairs like the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF generally have less volatility than the emerging market currency pairs like the USD/ZAR, USD/KRW and USD/BRL. Normally, more liquid currency pairs have less volatility."

• "Among the major currency pairs, the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY and AUD/USD are currently the most volatile."
• "The USD/ZAR, USD/KRW, USD/BRL and other emerging market currencies pairs tend to be highly volatile due to their low liquidity and because of the risk that is inherent in emerging market economies."

[Sergey Golubev]

FAANG Stocks - Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google (based on the article)

FAANG is an acronym, which stands for the first letters of the five companies Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet’s Google. These five companies have not only been some of the best-performing large-cap stocks over recent years (although Netflix only qualified as large-cap in 2013, when its capitalization consolidated above the $10 billion threshold), they have defined a zeitgeist, led a roaring bull market, and changed the way many of us live, at least in the world’s more economically developed countries.

Facebook

• "Facebook has been one of the worst performers in the tech correction. The monthly cycle points to a low in the coming week. This is a bit difficult to accept because none of the other FANG stocks are projected to bottom. And, only ten of the last sixteen buys have succeeded over the last two years. The $970-$980 area is the 38.2% retracement level of the prior rally. If this price level holds, Facebook may be at a low."

Apple

• "Apple has not responded to its last buy signal. There is a mid-December sell signal and an indication of a firmer low in mid-February. Relative strength hit a new low last week, a bearish development. All of the monthly buy signals in the last year have been successful. But I must point out that Apple, like the other FANG equities, have been in longer-term bull markets so this excellent percentage is not a surprise and is unlikely to be as high in the coming year."

Alphabet’s Google

• "Google (Alphabet) shows a mid-December buy signal followed by another decline. A more significant bottom is due in late February. Four of five monthly buy signals have been profitable over the last year. The downside retracement levels are $970 and $870."

  
  

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement  

2018-11-26 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -1596M
• forecast data is -850M
• actual data is -1295M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report :

• "Goods exports rose $303 million (6.6 percent) to $4.9 billion."
• "Goods imports rose $758 million (14 percent) to $6.2 billion. This is the highest imports value ever."
• "The monthly trade balance was a deficit of $1.3 billion (27 percent of exports)."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Crude Oil: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-11-27 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 137.9
• forecast data is 136.2
• actual data is 135.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined in November, following an improvement in October. The Index now stands at 135.7 (1985=100), down from 137.9 in October. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved slightly, from 171.9 to 172.7. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – decreased from 115.1 last month to 111.0 this month."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Fed Chair Powell Speech

2018-11-28 17:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

• past data is n/a
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = Speech titled "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability" at The Economic Club of New York.

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From forbes article :

• "Stocks surged after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech to the Economic Club of New York on November 28, 2018, where he introduced the Fed’s Financial Stability Report, inspired by and modeled after the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review. The market became wildly enthusiastic when, a few minutes into the speech, he stated that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral”. Everyone interpreted this sentence as a signal that the Fed may be very close to the end of the tightening cycle. This immediately sparked a stock rally. But that was not the most important point of his speech. It was his recognition that “things often turn out to be quite different from even the most careful forecasts.” For that reason, he explained, any forecast to make policy has to be accompanied by recognizing and managing potential risks. While he did not mention “unknown unknowns” as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously did in 2002, he listed four known risks the Fed is currently watching (and that the Financial Stability Report explores in depth). He quickly dispatched most of them, saying that the Fed does not think the financial sector has too much leverage or could run out of funding, or that there are any obvious bubbles in asset prices."

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DXY M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-11-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% in September, following seven consecutive months of growth. Lower output across all goods-producing industries (-0.7%) was the main reason for the decline. The output of services-producing industries edged up 0.2% as growth in most sectors more than offset declines in wholesale trade and in finance and insurance. Overall, 10 of 20 industrial sectors declined in September."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread