INR to USD forex rates today: Rupee falls 21 paise at 4-month low against USD in early trade (based on india.com article)
Extending losses for the third consecutive day, the rupee shed 21
paise to hit a four-month low of 63.77 against the US dollar in early
trade today at the Interbank Foreign Exchange due to continued demand
for the American currency from importers. Forex dealers said sustained
demand for the dollar from importers mainly weighed on the local
currency but a higher opening in the domestic equity market and easing
dollar against other currencies overseas, limited the rupee’s losses.
The rupee had lost 24 paise to close at a fresh three-and-half month
low of 63.56 against the US dollar in the previous session on Friday.
Meanwhile, the benchmark BSE Sensex rose by 129.34 points, or 0.47 per cent, at 27,567.28 in early trade
A Goldman Sachs EUR/USD Elliot Wave view (based on forexlive article)
"The market came close to testing 1.0911-1.0914
- 76.4% retrace of the Apr. 6th/13th drop and
76.4% of the swing target from Apr. 13th:
"If this is truly a wider/extended triangle,
then it suits the underlying view that there is still one last leg lower
to complete the 5-wave decline
Trading the News: U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
The U.K.’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may dampen the appeal
of the British Pound and undermine the near-term rebound in GBP/USD as
the growth rate is expected to increase an annualized 2.6% after
expanding 3.0% during the last three-months of 2014.
Why Is This Event Important:
Threats of a slower recovery may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to
adopt a more dovish tone while delivering its quarterly inflation report
on May 13, and the central bank may look to further delay its
normalization cycle in an effort to stem the downside risks surrounding
Nevertheless, the ongoing improvement in the labor market paired with
the rebound in business outputs may generate a positive development, and
an unexpected pickup in GDP may spur a larger advance in British Pound
as it boosts interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. GDP Slows to Annualized 2.6% or Lower
GBPUSD Daily Chart
GBPUSD M5: 37 pips price movement by GBP - GDP news event :
The U.K. economy expanded at a slower-than-expected pace during the last
three-months of 2014 as the growth rate climbed an annualized 2.7%
following a 2.6% rise in the third-quarter. The lackluster recovery may
encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to largely retain a wait-and-see
approach in 2015, but we may see Governor Mark Carney continue to
prepare U.K households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as the
central bank looks for a pickup in economic activity. The initial
bearish reaction was short-lived as GBP/USD pushed above the 1.5100
handle ahead of the North America trade, with the pair ending the day at
MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
GBPUSD, M5, 2015.04.28
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
GBPUSD M5: 46 pips price movement by GBP - GDP news event
AUDIO - Weekend Edition with John O'Donnell
Historic levels for the Nasdaq usher in a wave of skepticism amongst the hosts of Power Trading radio! Merlin and John offer their perspectives on what it means to have the market at these levels and what traders should be looking at. Listeners also ask questions on zero interest rates, market crashes, and inverse market Leaps.
EUR/USD Testing Resistance (based on investing.com article)
EURUSD: Seeking the high 1.09s before down. The near-term grind
higher is still on; now testing resistance at the low end of the
descending 55 day exponentially weighted moving average band
(1.09151.1035). While short-term dynamic support at the flat "Kijun-Sen"
(1.0775) remains intact additional gains into the high-1.09s is the
best fit. but once there look for near-term bearish signals to take
advantage of. Current intraday stretches are located at 1.0790 and
Spot gold: On the lookout for a +$1,211 break.
The biggest single-day gainer since late Jan must count for
something.It now looks quite clear that the decline from the early Apr
high of 1,224 is, or rather was,a correctional descent. All that is
needed now is a +1.211 break to confirm this and to allow extension to
and through resistance at 1,22426. A short-term "Equality point" hints
that 1.257 is the next attraction/resistance to align aim at. Current
intraday stretches are located at 1,185 and 1,209.
Brent Crude: Could recheck the $62-level before.
The short-term bullish wave structure remains incomplete though it is
still valid. If the recent sellers' response leads to near-term bearish
initiative below mid-body support at 63.90; pencil in decline closer to
dynamic support, now starting at 62.00. A sub-60.70 overlap is however
not ideally wished for since it would complicate the wave count more.
S&P500: Bearish print on top.
The short-term "equality point" at 2,121 held buyers at bay with
sellers' response being strong there. The bearish print as a result
points lower near-term (with short-term momentum indicators running at
rich levels indicating an overstretch) and the ascending 8 day
"Tenkan-Sen", now at 2,092, could be retested - but a buyers' response
there (or no later than at 2,080) is likely. Current intraday stretches
are located at 2,090 and 2,121.
EURUSD extends above next hurdle. What next? (based on forexlive article)
The EURUSD had a bit of up and down time of it as the NY session got underway, but the support level held (see earlier post) against the 1.0915-25 area.
EUR/USD Forecast April 29, 2015, Technical Analysis (based on fxempire article)
The EUR/USD pair broke
higher during the course of the session on Tuesday, heading towards the
1.10 level. This is an area that we should see quite a bit of
resistance at, and with the Federal Reserve having its interest-rate
announcement and more importantly, the interest rate statement during
the session today, it’s very likely that we will have a catalyst for the
next move in this pair. Because of this, we believe that it’s only a
matter of time before the sellers step in, but we recognize that a move
above the 1.12 level would change everything. It is very possible that
we get some type of extraordinary move during the session. We believe
this move will dictate where the market goes next.
AUDIO - Financial Matters with Ara Bayindiryan
Merlin sits down with the Architect of Online Trading Academy’s
new Financial matters program. They discuss aspects of everyone’s life
which are impacted by money related decisions, and offer insights on how
to make better, more informed decisions. Thus preserving capital,
decreasing risk, and achieving financial goals.
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health.
"Real gross domestic product -- the value of the production of goods and services in the United States, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2015, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.2 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5). The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 29, 2015.
The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased."
Federal Reserve policymakers see weakness in US economy (based on afr.com article)
The Federal Reserve pointed to weakness in the US labour market and
economy, in a sign that the central bank is struggling to proceed with
its plans to raise interest rates this year.
"The committee anticipates that it
will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds
rate when it has seen further improvement in the labour market and is
reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 per cent
objective over the medium term," the Fed said in its statement, following a two-day meeting of its policy-setting committee.
April: The Fed has taken a gloomier view of the economy: "Economic
growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory
factors. The pace of job gains moderated ... Growth in household
March: "Information received since the (Fed) met in January suggests
that economic growth has moderated somewhat. Labor market conditions
have improved further, with strong job gains and a lower unemployment