Crowd sentiment and recent changes give us a stronger USDJPY-bullish trading bias, according to MetaTrader (Part 2 - General

Sergey Golubev 2018.10.02 04:41 #101

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.02 06:36

USD/JPY - breaks to 11-Month Highs (based on the article)

USD/JPY AscTrend chart by Metatrader 5

"Retail trader data shows 34.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.87 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since Sep 13 when USDJPY traded near 111.628; price has moved 2.1% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.0% higher than yesterday and 10.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.7% higher than yesterday and 32.5% higher from last week."
"We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

The main AscTrend thread is this one.
Asctrend indicator in depth
ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2018.10.28 09:01 #102

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.28 09:56

USD/JPY - daily bearish reversal; long-term bullish continuation (based on the article)

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

"Another week of heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets proved to be fertile ground for another round of gains by the Japanese Yen. Spurred on by fresh concerns over the Brexit process and the Italian budget saga, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY were two of the three worst performers, losing -2.45% and -1.53% respectively. More pressure on emerging markets amid trade war concerns weighed on AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, which sank by -0.97% and -1.96% each. "
"While price action on Friday produced a sharp reversal in higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets, thus yielding a selloff in the Yen, the facts on the ground dictating the current risk environment haven't changed: the aggregate impact of tightening monetary policy, mismanaged fiscal policy (rising deficits), trade wars, high oil costs, and high inflation are too much for market participants at present time. Weekly and monthly charts still point to further gains for the Japanese Yen, even if a round of short-term position squaring (profit taking at the end of the month) transpires."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2018.10.29 08:59 #103

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.29 09:41

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen (based on the article)

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

Japanese Yen - "In a week filled with prolonged adverse stock market volatility, the anti-risk Japanese Yenappreciated against most of its major counterparts. The funding currency often benefits when sentiment turns sour and the importance of preserving capital leads to an unwinding of carry trade exposure. This results traders buying back funding currencies, of which the Yen is a prominent one and it appreciates. With that in mind, we turn our attention to the week ahead. The previous one was notably lacking in prominent economic data, allowing for markets to focus on the bigger fundamental picture which looks shaky for risk trends. Those are still vulnerable to tightening global credit conditions, trade wars, emerging markets and political uncertainty."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2018.10.31 09:17 #104

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.31 09:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2018-10-30 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

past data is 135.3
forecast data is 136.3
actual data is 137.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased again in October, following a modest improvement in September. The Index now stands at 137.9 (1985=100), up from 135.3 in September. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved from 169.4 to 172.8. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 112.5 last month to 114.6 this month."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH H4: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2018.12.07 14:06 #105

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.07 15:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, NZD/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-12-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 237K
forecast data is 198K
actual data is 155K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 155,000 in November, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in manufacturing, and in transportation and warehousing."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.02.01 06:05 #106

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.01 07:01

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Jobless Rate and range price movement

2019-01-31 23:30 GMT | [JPY - Unemployment Rate]

past data is 2.5%
forecast data is 2.5%
actual data is 2.4% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

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From rttnews article :

"The unemployment rate in Japan came in at a seasonally adjusted 2.4 percent in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday."
"That was shy of expectations for 2.5 percent, which would have been unchanged from the November reading. The job-to-applicant ratio was 1.63 - unchanged and in line with forecasts."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Japan Jobless Rate news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Double smoothed stochastic - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2019.02.20 08:08 #107

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.20 09:04

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance and range price movement

2019-02-19 23:50 GMT | [JPY - Trade Balance]

past data is -0.22T
forecast data is 0.17T
actual data is -0.37T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[JPY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

"Japan had a merchandise trade deficit of 1,452.2 billion yen in January, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
Rules to trade manually
How to install

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

fxstrategist007 2019.02.27 00:27 #108

The USDJPY completes 12 consecutive sessions stuck around the 111.00 level where we can find the 200 day EMA and the 61.8% Fibo. From the current levels, the pair may head in any direcion.

USD/JPY Analysis GBP/USD forecast Eurusd/gbpusd

Sergey Golubev 2019.03.01 07:35 #109

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.01 08:34

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Jobless Rate and range price movement

2019-02-28 23:30 GMT | [JPY - Unemployment Rate]

past data is 2.4%
forecast data is 2.4%
actual data is 2.5% according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[JPY - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.

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From rttnews article :

"The number of unemployed persons in January 2019 was 1.66 million, an increase of 70 thousand or 4.4% from the previous year."
"The unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, was 2.5%"

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Jobless Rate news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
Rules to trade manually
How to install

Press review Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2019.03.09 13:10 #110

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.09 13:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/JPY: Non-Farm Payrolls

2019-03-08 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 311K
forecast data is 180K
actual data is 20K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events