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Forecast and levels for EURO - page 24

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.02 16:41

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Brent Crude Oil and EUR/USD: ISM United States Manufacturing PMI

2018-04-02 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 60.8
  • forecast data is 60.1
  • actual data is 59.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "Manufacturing expanded in March as the PMI® registered 59.3 percent, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. “This indicates strong growth in manufacturing for the 19th consecutive month, led by continued expansion in new orders, production activity, employment and inventories, with suppliers continuing to struggle delivering to demand,” says Fiore. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting."

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Dollar Index M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Dollar Index

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Brent Crude Oil M1: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

Brent Cude Oil

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM United States Manufacturing PMI news events

EURUSD

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.06 14:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Gold: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-04-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 326K
  • forecast data is 188K
  • actual data is 103K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in manufacturing, health care, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

EURUSD during NFP

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USDJPY during NFP

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Gold during NFP

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.10 16:24

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United States Producer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.3 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in February and 0.4 percent in January. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index increased 3.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March."
  • "In March, 70 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.3-percent advance in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods also climbed 0.3 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Producer Price Index news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 03:40

EUR/USD - life inside a range (based on the article)

EURUSD chart by MT5

  • "Heading into last week the euro was set up to rally from a confluence of support, but the power at which it did so was uninspiring. While the 2008 trend-line in the mid-12400s was targeted, it was hardly surprising to see momentum stall as the range since January persists. Life inside a range can be difficult, which is why from a tactical standpoint we continue to look to fading price at the perimeter and avoid new entries altogether in the middle. This will be a theme we continue to abide by until market conditions change."
  • "The good news is market conditions will change. When they are ready, some patience may be required. But with the trading range for the past three months ranking as one of the tightest in the euro’s existence, something has to give likely sooner rather than later. "
  • "From a tactical standpoint this coming week, we’ll look to those perimeter levels and how the market responds to any touches. A bullish or bearish reversal will have attention on trades back towards the other side of the range, while clean breaks will be our cue to abandon a fade-trade mentality and look for momentum to finally pick up."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


EUR/USD technical forecast barring any major fundamental developments ... Happy Trading!


Near-term EUR/USD Forecast

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.16 15:08

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United States Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-04-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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From cnbc article :

  • "The Commerce Department says retail sales rose 0.6 percent last month, the largest increase since November. Auto sales jumped 2 percent, the most in six months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by United States Retail Sale news event

AscTrend system by MT5

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.18 12:00

EUR/USD - long-term bullish reversal; 1.2555 is the key (based on the article)

Monthly price is testing resistance level at 1.2555 to above for the long-term bullish reversal to be started.

EURUSD

  • "The Euro is struggling to find lasting direction against the US Dollar but longer-term positioning continues to argue for a broadly bearish trend bias. Still, the medium-term view carries bullish elements that may yet carry potent supportive implications. On the monthly chart, prices are perched squarely at the top of a falling trend channel defining the way lower for nearly a decade. A cluster of critical swing lows that served as support from 2008 to 2012 before finally being broken in 2014 has been recast as resistance, reinforcing the barrier capping gains."
  • "From a tactical perspective, opting to keep in play the second half of a short EUR/USD trade from 1.2407 seems prudent after partial profit was booked on hitting the trade’s first objective. Confirmation of the Triangle on a close above 1.2448 would also invalidate the position’s underlying logic, triggering a stop-loss. In the meantime, the series of lower highs set from the double top below the 1.26 figure continues to hold and risk/reward parameters suggest there is room to wait and see if the weight of the long-term down trend will prevail. If it does, scale-up opportunities will be actively pursued."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.22 07:41

Weekly Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EURUSD chart by Metatrader 5

EUR/USD - "The EUR/USD range is certainly testing traders’ patience, but those who remain disciplined and keep their powder dry are likely to be presented with a momentum-move relatively soon. Ranges don’t last forever. This is one of the tightest in the euro’s existence and getting tighter as price is wedging up into a triangle. A resolution is closing in. This coming week we have the ECB on Thursday, but there isn’t any grand expectation for it to be a market-moving event. However, as per usual, expect the unexpected; you never know what the last grain of sand will be to collapse the pile (in this case, a breakout in either direction). Regardless of what the catalyst is – big, small, expected, unexpected, of the technical variety – when the range/wedge is finally broken a sizable move should begin. For those looking for short-term ‘fade-trades’ off levels, a strategy we’ve been highlighting in recent weeks, the risk/reward profile is quickly diminishing with price action tightening up. At this juncture, waiting for a breakout appears to be the most prudent play."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.25 11:00

EUR/USD - breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support level at 1.2181 for the bearish reversal to be continuing.

EURUSD chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro recoiled from two-month trend line resistance against the US Dollar but sellers are still unable to punch through long-standing congestion area support. The symmetric Triangle setup noted last week seems to be invalidated however, marking a small but noteworthy bearish update of near-term positioning."
  • "From here, a daily close below the 1.2154-73 area (March 1 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 1.2055-70 zone (50% level, August 29 high). Alternatively, a push back above near-term resistance at 1.2300 opens the door for another run at the falling trend line, now effectively at the 1.24 figure."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.27 11:53

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on article)

Updates to the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may curb the recent weakness in EUR/USD as the growth rate is anticipated to slow to an annualized 2.0% from 2.9%. 

What’s Expected:

Metatrader 5

Why Is This Event Important:

Bear in mind, market participants may put greater emphasis on the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, as the reading is projected to increase 2.6% during the first three-months of 2018, which would mark the fastest pace of growth since 2007. Signs of heightening price pressures may ultimately trigger a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to extend the hiking-cycle.

However, a series of below-forecast data prints may sap the appeal of the greenback, and EUR/USD may stage a near-term rebound as market participants scale back bets for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.

How To Trade This Event Risk

  • Near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with the pair clearing the March-low (1.2155).
  • Close below 1.2130 (50% retracement) raises the risk for a move towards 1.1960 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1970 (23.% expansion), with the next region of interest coming in around 1.1810 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1670 (78.6% expansion) to 1.1680 (50% retracement).
  • Keep a close eye on the RSI as it approaches oversold territory, with move below 30 raising the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as the bearish momentum gathers pace.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily


EURUSD chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news event 


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