Press review - page 605

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Great Britain Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-04-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is -0.5%
• actual data is -1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

• "The month-on-month growth rate fell by 1.2% due to a large fall of 7.4% from petrol sales; a likely consequence of adverse weather conditions, which impacted travel."
• "In the three months to March 2018 (Quarter 1), the quantity bought in retail sales fell by 0.5% when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017, with declines in all sectors except for department stores and non-store retailing."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain Retail Sales news event 

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bullish breakout (based on the article)

• "OPEC and the United States seem to be sending Bullish signals to the Crude Oil market. OPEC and Russia appear to be setting the stage to keep oil cuts going despite a vanishing glut that caused them to engage the production curbs in the first place. Second, shrinking US Oil stockpiles are showing a tighter physical market per the EIA report on Wednesday that puts pressure on physical buyers to buy now and hold as the benefits of carrying the physical exceed the costs as evidenced by backwardation."
• "These developments have led to Crude futures surging nearly 3% in New York with the price pushing closer to the $70/bbl mark for WTI and $75/bbl on Brent for June settlement. For the former, there remains a confluence of technical resistance from Fibonacci levels near the $70/bbl mark that could be seen as a place for buyers to take profits should the fundamental data develop fault lines."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Joyce Chan]

Hi,

I am new and I just starting to learn harmonic trading pattern. I search few days and found many discussion in this forum.

I would like to ask for help about some patterns and hope someone can teach me. I tried to find more information but cannot found it.

1. Anti shark and alternate shark: 

I found some materials, but one saying that the following ratios are for anti shark, and another one saying it is for alt shark. I am confused. which name is correct ? if it is anti shark, then what is the ratio for alt shark?

B = 0.446 - 0.618 XA

C = 0.618 - 0.886 AB

D = 1.13 XA

2. Cypher v.s. new cypher?

I search from internet and find the cypher's ratio is follows:

B = 0.382 to 0.618 XA

C = 1.13 to 1.414 AB

D = 0.786 XC

D = 1.272 to 2 BC

However, i also found one website saying that there is a pattern called new cypher, the only difference is C = 1.414 to 2.14 AB.

Is it true that there are really one pattern called cypher and one called new cypher with the above ratios? Or only Cypher exist?

Then is the correct ratio for Cyher is C = 1.13 to 1.414 AB?

Appreciate if anyone could help me to clarify these. Thanks very much

[Sergey Golubev]

Oil - strong bullish daily (based on the article)

• "The price of the U.S. benchmark oil, WTI, reached its highest level in three years on Thursday – nearly $69 per barrel – before retreating slightly. The European benchmark, Brent, rose to over $73 per barrel. These higher prices are largely the result of a draw down in oil stocks, meaning there is less oil in storage globally. For several years, the oil market has experienced a substantial oil glut, and this signifies a change."
• "Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have made statements to the effect that the glut is ending. This means less supply, and therefore higher prices. Oil prices have also been pushed higher by geopolitical factors such as heightened tensions in Syria, the threat of new sanctions on Iran and unrest in Venezuelan oil fields."

• "There are two major decisions in the next few months that will likely set the tone for oil markets for the rest of 2018 and into 2019. The first is President Trump’s May 12 decision about recertifying the Iran nuclear deal. The President may, at that point, decide to re-impose sanctions on Iran. There are some indications that he is likely to do so, though the decision has not been made. It he does, prices should rise further."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-20 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.4%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 2.2% increase in February. This was the largest year-over-year increase since October 2014. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 1.8%, matching the gain in February."

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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news event 

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Forecast for EUR/USD (based on the article)

EUR/USD - "The EUR/USD range is certainly testing traders’ patience, but those who remain disciplined and keep their powder dry are likely to be presented with a momentum-move relatively soon. Ranges don’t last forever. This is one of the tightest in the euro’s existence and getting tighter as price is wedging up into a triangle. A resolution is closing in. This coming week we have the ECB on Thursday, but there isn’t any grand expectation for it to be a market-moving event. However, as per usual, expect the unexpected; you never know what the last grain of sand will be to collapse the pile (in this case, a breakout in either direction). Regardless of what the catalyst is – big, small, expected, unexpected, of the technical variety – when the range/wedge is finally broken a sizable move should begin. For those looking for short-term ‘fade-trades’ off levels, a strategy we’ve been highlighting in recent weeks, the risk/reward profile is quickly diminishing with price action tightening up. At this juncture, waiting for a breakout appears to be the most prudent play."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-04-24 02:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

• "rose 0.4% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.6% in the December quarter 2017."
• "rose 1.9% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2018, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index news event 

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support level at 1.2181 for the bearish reversal to be continuing.

• "The Euro recoiled from two-month trend line resistance against the US Dollar but sellers are still unable to punch through long-standing congestion area support. The symmetric Triangle setup noted last week seems to be invalidated however, marking a small but noteworthy bearish update of near-term positioning."
• "From here, a daily close below the 1.2154-73 area (March 1 low, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 1.2055-70 zone (50% level, August 29 high). Alternatively, a push back above near-term resistance at 1.2300 opens the door for another run at the falling trend line, now effectively at the 1.24 figure."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin:  ranging near bullish reversal waiting for direction (based on the article)

The daily price is moving along Senkou Span line which is the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish market condition on the chart. If the price breaks Senkou Span to above so the daily bullish reversal will be started, if not so the price will be on ranging near reversal waiting for direction.

• "More large and established enterprises are now entering the blockchain landscape by adopting the technology and even offering their own blockchain solutions - aka distributed ledger technology (DLT). While admittedly there has been much noise and hype around blockchain, it is argued that these new developments help build up its image as a reliable and secure technology for transactions. Indeed, almost 9 in 10 (87%) of the technology professionals canvassed in this survey believed that blockchain technology will be as transformative for business as the Internet has been. Some two-thirds of those who responded revealed that they have trialled or are using blockchain technology. And, despite nearly half of those who responded to questions not yet having worked with the technology, they indicated they intended to do so over next two years."
• "The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cautioned the public regarding investing in ICOs and warned over celebrity promotion of crypto ventures. In light of the collapse of The DAO, another failed blockchain effort, the SEC reported that tokens that function as securities are subject to securities laws."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - daily bullish breakout; 91.03 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal: the price is testing support level at 1.2181 for the bearish reversal to be continuing.

• "The US Dollar tends to be driven by relative economic growth. As the global reserve currency, when the rest of the world is strengthening, often at a faster pace than the US Economy, it is common for bonds to be issued in US Dollars and then converted to invest abroad driving the US Dollar lower. Another way to see this phenomenon in action is to look at junk bond yields. A falling yield in the US Junk Bond index tends to show a force behind US Dollar weakness whereas rising junk yields tend to favor repatriation and USD strength. Recently, the bid in junk bonds had been so intense that the spread between yields on investment-grade and junk-rated debt was the narrowest since 2007 showing a preference to chase yield over creditworthy borrowers. Again, this drive was sending bonds that were issued in USD abroad and done so by selling USD."
• "Retail trader data shows 51.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.7% lower than yesterday and 40.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.1% lower than yesterday and 16.6% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5