EURUSD Technical Analysis 2015, 25.01 - 01.02: Bearish Breakdown - page 2
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newdigital, 2015.01.29 15:13
2015-01-29 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Unemployment Claims]if actual < forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy
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"In the week ending January 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claimswas 265,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since April 15, 2000 when it was 259,000. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 307,000 to 308,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,500, a decrease of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 306,500 to 306,750.
There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment ratewas 1.8 percent for the week ending January 17, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemploymentduring the week ending January 17 was 2,385,000, a decrease of 71,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 13,000 from 2,443,000 to 2,456,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,438,500, an increase of 8,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,250 from 2,427,000 to 2,430,250."MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.29
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 44 pips price movement by USD - Unemployment Claims news event
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newdigital, 2015.01.30 09:38
EUR/USD stalls at key Gann level (based on dailyfx article)
- EUR/USD recovery stalled near the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low near 1.1415 on Tuesday
- Our near-term trend bias remains positive on the euro while above 1.1210
- A push above the 3rd square root relationship of the year’s low at 1.1415 is needed to set off a new leg higher
- A minor turn window is seen on Friday
- A close under 1.1210 would turn us negative on the euro again
EUR/USD Strategy: Like the long side while over 1.1210.Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
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newdigital, 2015.01.30 10:38
Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (based on dailyfx article)
The advance U.S. 4Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may generate a larger rebound in EUR/USD should the fresh batch of data highlight a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in mid-2015, a dismal GDP print may push the central bank to further delay its normalization cycle especially as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation.
Nevertheless, improved confidence along with the ongoing recovery in the labor market may prompt a strong GDP figure, and a positive development may promote a further decline in EUR/USD amid the deviation in the policy outlook.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: 4Q GDP Fails to Meet Market Expectations
- Need to see green, five-minute candle following the GDP report to consider a long trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a short dollar trade, buy EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bullish USD Trade: Growth Rate Expands 3.0% or Greater- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short EURUSD trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish dollar trade, just in reverse
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Keeping a close eye on the RSI as it continues to flirt
with the 30 level; rebound from oversold territory to favor a larger
rebound for EUR/USD.
- Interim Resistance: 1.1440 (23.6% retracement) to 1.1470 (78.6% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.1096 (January low) to 1.1100 pivot
Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
2014
3Q 2014 U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
EURUSD M5: 36 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event :
The U.S. economy advanced more-than-expected in the third-quarter, with the growth rate expanding another annualized 3.5% following the 4.6% expansion during the three-months through June. At the same time, Personal Consumption climbed 1.8% during the same period amid forecasts for a 1.9% print, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) narrowed to 1.4% from 2.0% in the second-quarter. Despite the better-than-expected GDP print, the Fed appears to be in no rush to normalize monetary policy as it struggles to achieve the 2% target for inflation. The initial reaction in EUR/USD was short-lived as the pair snapped back from the 1.2550 region, with the pair ending the day at 1.2602.
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EURUSD, M5, 2015.01.30
MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5
EURUSD M5: 33 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event