Forecast and levels for GBP - page 4

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D1 / MN1


D1 / MN1

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 12:58

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "For the British Pound, last week was dominated by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, whose remark that “some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary” was interpreted as bringing closer an increase in UK interest rates. The trade-off he was talking about was presumably the one between slow growth and high inflation, which makes UK monetary policy decisions particularly difficult. So essentially he was saying only that if growth picks up and inflation fails to come down a decision to raise rates will become easier. If the markets were to begin to understand that and reinterpret Carney’s comments, it’s quite possible that the Pound will ease back again after the gains it made in their wake.It’s also important to note that the 1.3000 to 1.3030 level has proved to be strong resistance for GBPUSD."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.02 18:02

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, July 02 - July 09 (based on the article)

GBP/USD soared last week, gaining 250 points. The pair closed at 1.3015, the first weekly close above the 1.30 level since May. This week’s highlights are the PMI reports.


  1. Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 8:30. The estimate for the June report stands at 56.4.
  2. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speech: Monday, 12:00. Carney will speak at the Financial Stability Board in Frankfurt. A speech which is more hawkish than expected is bullish for the British pound.
  3. Construction PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. The estimate for the June reading stands at 55.2.
  4. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01. This indicator measures consumer inflation in BRC stores.
  5. Services PMI: Wednesday, 8:30.  The downward trend is expected to continue, with a forecast of 53.5.
  6. Housing Equity Withdrawal: Thursday, 8:30. This indicator is an important gauge of the strength of the housing sector. The estimate for Q2 stands at GBP -7.4 billion.
  7. 10-y Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. The estimate for June stands at 0.2%.
  8. Manufacturing Production: Friday, 8:30. This key event should be treated as a market-mover. After three straight declines, the indicator posted a gain of 0.2% in April. However, this fell well short of the estimate of 0.8%. The upswing is expected to continue in May, with a forecast of 0.4%.
  9. Goods Trade Balance: Friday, 8:30. The estimate for the May deficit is GBP 10.9 billion.
  10. NIESR GDP Estimate: Friday, 12:00. This monthly indicator helps analysts track GDP, as the official publication is only released each quarter.
  11. BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Friday, Tentative. Carney will speak at the G-20 summit in Hamburg. The markets will be looking for clues regarding possible rate hikes by the BoE.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.07 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-07-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 222,000 in June, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in health care, social assistance, financial activities, and mining."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.13 14:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Producer Price Index

2017-07-13 13:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report :

  • "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1 percent in June, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in May and rose 0.5 percent in April. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 2.0 percent for the 12 months ended in June."
  • "In June, almost 80 percent of the rise in the final demand index is attributable to prices for final demand services, which increased 0.2 percent. The index for final demand goods edged up 0.1 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Producer Price Index news events



 
Gbp USD in good uptrend .. for scalping use M15 looking for sell 
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:12

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "Traders in the British Pound will be focused on Tuesday’s UK inflation data for June in the week ahead. That would certainly strengthen the position of the doves on the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, who only just outnumbered the hawks pressing for an interest-rate increase at their last meeting. With news likely too in the coming week of stronger UK retail sales, the impact on the British Pound could well be negative."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.19 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Residential Building Permits

2017-07-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.17M
  • forecast data is 1.20M
  • actual data is 1.25M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From economiccalendar article :

  • "US building permits increased 7.4% for June to an annualised rate of 1.254mn from 1.17mn in May. This was above consensus forecasts of a figure close to 1.20mn to give an annual increase of 5.1%."
  • "Housing starts rose 8.3% on the month to an annual rate of 1.215mn from 1.12mn in May. This was also above market expectations of 1.16mn with an annual gain of 2.1%."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Residential Building Permits news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 11:54

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "As we came into this week, there were very legitimate bullish prospects for the British Pound, and this wasn’t necessarily a new story. Ahead of Brexit, Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, warned that the British Pound could undergo a ‘sharp repricing’ should U.K. voters elect to leave the EU. He also warned that this could be coupled with a whole host of unsavory elements; such as slower growth and higher unemployment. Meanwhile, the ‘sharp repricing’ in the value of the British Pound could lead to unsavory levels of inflation; and this could put the bank in the unenviable position of having to choose whether to mold monetary policy to either a) support the British Pound, which could stem inflation while risking even higher levels of unemployment and even slower levels of growth, or b) support growth and employment by cutting interest rates, which could drive even more weakness into GBP, which could expose even stronger inflationary forces."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.27 14:54

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and Dollar Index: Durable Goods Orders

2017-07-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.8%
  • forecast data is 3.5%
  • actual data is 6.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = hange in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From abcnews article :

  • "US durable goods orders climbed 6.5 percent in June, most in nearly three years, on surging demand for civilian aircraft."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



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