Forecast and levels for Oil - page 12

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.17 06:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Crude Oil: China Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2019-04-17 02:00 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From rttnews article :

  • "China's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations and down from 1.5 percent in the three months prior."
  • "On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 6.4 percent - unchanged from Q4 and beating forecasts for 6.3 percent."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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EUR/USD: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events 

EUR/USD: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.24 18:53

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily ranging near bullish reversal

2019-04-24 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.5 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.04 17:32

Crude Oil - bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud; 69.65 is the key for the correction to be started (based on the article)

Oil Price Daily Chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil dipped 1.17 percent to $62.15/bbl over the last 5 trading days, inking back-to-back weekly losses for the commodity. The primary driver of recent downside could be attributed to reports from the EIA that crossed the wires during Thursday’s session which stated US crude stockpiles skyrocketed 9.9m/bbl to their highest level since September 2017."
  • "Ballooning crude oil production in the US now tops 12m/bpd and largely contributed to the recent bulge in oil inventories. The trend looks to continue after the Trump administration announced that the Interior Department released a fresh set of regulations last week that makes offshore oil drilling easier for energy companies. That being said, the updated EIA short-term energy outlook report is due for release on May 7 and looks to provide oil market participants with the latest comprehensive insight over potential supply and demand imbalances."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.11 09:54

Crude Oil - weekly ranging near long-term bullish reversal; 75.57 is the key (based on the article)

Crude Oil Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "In a week that started off with a gap-down, Crude Oil prices have continued to grasp for support. Prices pushed-lower at the start of the week following a couple of tweets from President Trump on Sunday. This created a quick move of weakness in WTI that saw prices push down to 60.06 on Monday, with buyers showing up just ahead of a test of the psychological level at 60.00. This was the third zone of support identified in the technical forecast from a few weeks ago; and after this came into play, buyers showed up to support the bid."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.15 04:31

Crude Oil - ranging near long-term bullish reversal; 75.57 is the key (based on the article)

Crude Oil Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Today’s gains have helped offset a string of losses as fears over increasing oil output coupled with diminishing hopes that a US China trade deal will be reached. But, crude oil prices still remain above technical support at the 50.0 percent retracement level around $60.00/bbl drawn from October’s 
    peak and December’s bottom last year. Positive sentiment from a technical perspective has waned, however, after bullish uptrend support from the latest 40-plus percent rally was broken earlier this month. Now, a short-term bearish downtrend has formed while a downward-sloping 34-day EMA both look to serve as headwinds to further upside in oil prices.” 
  • "Focusing in on a closer perspective, it appears that the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the high and low recorded on April 23 and May 6 respectively serves as a new area of confluence around the $61.50/bbl price. Oil bulls will likely watch this level closely to see if technical support continues to hold with the 61.8 percent and 50.0 percent Fibs encompassing the $62.50-63.20/bbl price level eyed as short-term upside targets. Although, if prices fail to hold footing above $60.00/bbl, crude could quickly accelerate to the downside."

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The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.25 17:02

Oil Prices Set to Follow Fundamental News Next Week (based on the article)

Crude Oil price by Metatrader 5

  • "Abarrage of high-impact economic data points next week spanning US, Swiss and Canadian GDP reports, German jobs numbers, inflation data out of the US and Germany in addition to China’s manufacturing PMI could very well dictate where oil prices head from here. Sentiment may remain damaged if the market-moving data fails to inspire appetite for risk and expected demand for oil which could further threaten bullish prospects."
  • "Although, a weakening US Dollar could pose as a positive tailwind to crude oil price gains. US Iran friction heating up may also bring upside to oil prices as it would likely crimp supplies. Additionally, crude could get a boost from building speculation over extended OPEC production cuts as the oil cartel’s next meeting on June 25 in Vienna draws nearer."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.01 19:27

Crude Oil - bearish breakdown; 54.98 is the key for the bearish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

  • "The impact from Trump tariffs and deteriorating US China trade relations in addition to several other downside risks to global GDP growth have sent crude oil on a 16.5 percent nosedive over the month of May – and prices could still head lower. Market sentiment, as well as oil demand and prices, threaten to deteriorate further considering the barrage of high-impact economic events and data releases next week which look to provide the latest health check on risk appetite and could further spark cross-asset volatility."
  • "Recent crude oil carnage could be curbed, however, if the fundamental backdrop for global growth improves on the back of upbeat data or trade war rhetoric. Strength in the US economy may shine and inspire investor confidence if leading indicators like the ISM manufacturing and services PMI readings surprise to the upside. Although, markets are likely still digesting the looming effect from the US slapping a 5 percent tariff slapped onto all Mexican goods exports with any whiff of downward global GDP growth revisions risking more downside in oil."
  • "According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data, net oil futures positioning shows a reduction in net short positioning as the volume of commercials longs outpaced that of shorts for the last 5 weeks. The bullish bets from commercial hedgers could provide crude oil prices with a bit of buoyancy, but it is noteworthy that non-commercial speculative futures traders have grown increasingly bearish over the last month as prices spiral lower."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.09 09:18

Crude Oil - daily bearish ranging within 50.60/56.60 (based on the article)

Crude Oil Chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Last week, oil found itself in an ugly position again, but was able to find support via the low-end of a range created during Jan/Feb. The bounce on Thursday brought with it limited follow-through to end the week, however; the price action for the week resolved in the form of a reversal candle that could set into motion some more buying in the days ahead."
  • "Next week might not bring with it rip-roaring power, as oil is already failing to follow stocks higher in the same manner in which it did on the down-side. (This may be a symptom of a broader problem on the macro-front, a story for another day.) This relative weakness could change, of course, should the ‘risk-on’ theme mature."
  • "Looking at the near-term technical landscape, the trend-line running lower from three weeks ago is first up as resistance. This may only prove to be minor resistance, but given how crude has acted thus far that might be all that is needed to keep a lid on a bounce."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.17 12:33

Crude Oil - bearish ranging (based on the article)

BrentCrude Oil daily price by Metatrader 5

  • "Crude oil continues to be strikingly weak as its relationship to stocks and the ‘risk trade’ has become noticeably untethered. The initial bounce off the June low held some power, but the past couple of sessions after retesting the monthly low the bounce has been smaller."
  • "A turn down from right around here (also the trend-line from last month) will help complete a descending wedge pattern. Given the general trend and nature of the pattern (lower high, flat bottom structure) it is anticipated that a downside break will develop."
  • "A sustained decline through $50.54 should have the WTI contract picking up downside momentum again. The height of the wedge implies about a $4 drop, or about $46. This aligns with the weekly chart, where a confluence of support runs over from 2016."
  • "A failure to roll down and break the $50.54 level will keep the outlook neutral, while some work on the upside will be needed to turn the trading bias bullish. The wedge could develop further and break to the top-side but risk of the breakout failing will be elevated given the generally weak backdrop in place."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.19 15:50

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2019-06-19 12:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in May, up from a 2.0% increase in April. The CPIincreased amid a series of broad-based gains, including higher prices for food and durable goods, while consumers paid 3.7% less for gasoline compared with May 2018. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased 2.7% year over year, up from a 2.3% increase in April."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Canada Consumer Price Index news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


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