Press review - page 608

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - Daily Bearish Breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price is testing the support level at 1.1822 to below for the daily bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The Euro managed to score the largest one-day gain in six weeks against the US Dollar but the dominant trend bias continues to favor on-going weakness. Long-term positioning suggests the single currency marked the resumption of a decade-long down trend with April’s monthly close."
• "From here, a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1937 opens the door for a retest of former support in the 1.2055-92 area (50% level, September 8 high). Alternatively, a move below the chart inflection point at 1.1825 paves the way for a challenge of the November 21 low at 1.1713."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

3 Trading Tips for RSI (based on the article)

What is RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI (Relative Strength Index) is counted among trading's most popular indicators. This is for good reason, because as a member of the oscillator family, RSI can help us determine the trend, time entries, and more. 
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was developed by J. Welles Wilder to measure the speed and change of price movements. RSI oscillates and is bound between zero and 100. There are many different uses for RSI and by far the most popular is trading overbought and oversold crossovers.

Think beyond the crossovers

When traders first learn about RSI and other oscillators, they tend to gravitate to overbought and oversold values. While these are intuitive points to enter in the market on retracements, this can be counterproductive in strong trending environments. RSI is considered a momentum oscillator, and this means extended trends can keep RSI overbought or oversold for long periods of time.

Watch the center line

All oscillators have a center line and more often than not, they become a forgotten backdrop compared to the indicator itself. RSI is no different, with a center line found in the middle of the range at a reading of 50. 
Technical forex traders use the centerline to show shifts in the trend. If RSI is above 50, momentum is considered up and traders can look for opportunities to buy the market. A drop below 50 would indicate the development of a new bearish market trend. 

Check your parameters

RSI like many other oscillators is defaulted to a 14 period setting. This means the indicator looks back 14 bars on whatever graph you may be viewing, to create its reading. Even though 14 is the defaulted setting that may not make it the best setting for your trading. Normally short-term traders use a smaller period, such as a nine period RSI, to replicate shorter term movements in the market.. Longer-term traders may opt for a higher period, such as a 25 period RSI, for another indicator line.

[Sergey Golubev]

Long Term Crude Oil (based on the article)

• "The crude oil Elliott Wave analysis on the weekly price chart shows a bearish pivot may be occurring near current levels to retrace a significant portion of the previous two-year uptrend. On a weekly crude oil price chart, the Elliott Wave pattern we are following is that the current rise from the 2016 is a wave 4. We are showing this fourth wave as subdividing as a double zigzag pattern labeled W-X-Y. This pattern in general is a bearish pattern and suggests a deep correction may be on the horizon for crude oil prices."
• "Dialing in to shorter time frame charts, we can see an Elliott Wave chart that is nearing its terminal point if it has not reached it already. The first one is a very bearish scenario depicted on the left side above. This shows wave (b) of Y as a sharp correction that ended on February 14 followed by an ending diagonal pattern higher. Ending diagonal patterns can appear at the end of a long trend and signals a tiring trend."
• "Using the rules of the Elliott Wave principle, we can place a maximum price potential of this pattern at $74.52. If crude oil prices press beyond $74.52, then another pattern is at play and the diagonal is eliminated."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post together with the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - bouncing near 200-SMA revesal levels (based on the article)

• "Last week's net result was relatively even for EUR/USD, even posting a small reversal candle on the weekly time-frame, but nothing super convincing. Nevertheless, the euro could continue to recovery after the big slide its recently experienced. However, the bounce, given the break of the April trend-line, and more importantly the 2017 high, appears at risk of stalling sooner rather than later and leading to another leg lower. Just ahead is the 200-day MA, but without any price levels in confluence we'll have to wait and see how a touch of the MA will play out."
• "A rally up to the broken 2017 high and turn down would hold more appeal for refreshing short positions, as not only is this old support considered a new level of resistance, but the move off of last week's low will have been sufficient enough to work off oversold conditions."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - daily bullish breakout; 78.50 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing the resistance level at 78.50 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing,

• "Demand dynamics and supply shocks help to keep oil supported. While volatility appears set for a higher average than 2017, which is not saying much as it had the lowest realized cross-asset volatility in multiple decades there appears to be no room for gold to test crude's dominance of the market. Metals remain mixed as higher rates keep traders away from the non-yielding yellow metal while backwardation continues to support crude. Even base metals are losing their flavor on slowing demand growth in China."
• "Last week, President Trump ordered the reinstatement of Iran sanctions: While crude outsiders may see that as the key bullish driver, the demand dynamics remain in the driver seat as supply shocks may continue to arise and help take crude toward bullish targets of $77/bbl, which marks the 61.8% retracement of the 2014/2016 range."
• "OPEC raises their 2018 demand forecast helping to show the physical market may tighten further."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-05-16 00:50 GMT | [JPY - GDP]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From rttnews article :

• "Japan's gross domestic product was down 0.2 percent on quarter in the first three months of 2018, the Cabinet Office said in Wednesday's preliminary reading."
• "Nominal GDP was down 0.4 percent on quarter, missing expectations for a gain of 0.1 percent following the 0.1 percent gain three months earlier."

==========

USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 

BrainTrending indicators to download with template. 

Rules to trade manually 

How to install

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 - symmetric triangle pattern to be crossing for the weekly bullish trend to be continuing (based on the article)

• "Last week, the S&P 500 broke out above the trend-line extending down off the record high, this week has thus far and probably will continue through the end of today, be nothing more than a quiet week of chopping sideways."
• "The chop sideways following a strong push off the 2016 trend-line/200-day is viewed as healthy as long as we don't see a sudden drop back down below the recently captured downtrend line. The rally off the monthly low also took the market beyond the April high, another constructive positive."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.

[Sergey Golubev]

Nikkei 225 - daily bullish ranging; 22,948 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on ranging to be above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on testing the resistance level at 22,948 to above for the primary bullish trend to be continuing, oherwise - ranging within the levels.

• "The Nikkei 225 is right in the middle of an uptrend channel that it looks quite foolish to bet against for now. The channel itself is an extension of the Tokyo stock benchmark's long, consistent rise up from the lows of late March. It probably gives us more usable clues than would a broader band encompassing all trade since that date, as it has seen more tests of both the upside and the down."
• "That upside now comes in above the market at 23180.6, and the upper channel bound should probably regarded as solid resistance in the absence of any clear evidence to the contrary on a daily-closing basis. The lower channel bound comes in at 22780, and should provide support on the same basis. If it doesn't, reversals should find a prop at 223222, which is the first, 23/6% Fibonacci retracement of the total rise."
• "Bulls have the year's peaks in their sights once again but, before they can retake them, they'll need to erase the memory of the sharp fall which took place between January 30 and February 8. The current uptrend will get them there, but it may not do so terribly quickly."
• "There is likely to be some consolidation before that though, if not a more severe setback. The index is still flirting with overbought levels, according to its Relative Strength Index, and would stray back into clear overbought territory now on just a modest further uptick."

---------------- 

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - weekly breakdown to the long-term bearish reversal (based on the article)

• "Looking ahead to next week, there is a good amount of support in the vicinity of 11725/670 which could put a larger rebound in place, or at least pause downward momentum for more than a couple of days. Since breaking down last month, wow price reacts to the first big test of sizable support will be critical to the outlook moving forward."
• "So, while this next week may not hold a big move, price action could be telling moving beyond the next few days. A strong reversal off support will shine light on the notion we could have a tradable low at hand, while a failure to garner any buying interest will suggest another leg lower will be in store."

---------------- 

The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

The Week Ahead: relatively quiet week (based on the article)

• "It will be another relatively quiet week as far as economic reports are concerned, although there is a possibility of a significant move following the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday or after the durable goods report on Friday."
• "The market signals an almost 100% chance of a rate hike in June, and should the minutes turn out to be strongly dovish, a major “re-pricing” event could occur. While currencies and bonds would be the most affected, equities are also highly sensitive to rates. As the dollar’s recent rise caused a mini panic in emerging market assets, without real contagion into developed assets (yet…), a pullback in the currency would be much welcomed by investors. That said, the Gorilla thinks that the rising trend that started three weeks ago is intact, and that the benefit of the doubt is now on the side of bulls."
• "It was a relatively quiet week concerning economic releases, but not so much for the bond market, as Treasury yields experienced wild swings across the curve. The moves were likely driven mostly by emotions, as the yield on the 10-year surged past 3%, since the economic outlook didn’t change radically. The retail sales report provided the biggest negative surprise, as both the headline and the core number came in below expectations. Housing starts also missed the consensus estimate, and while building permits were in line with expectations, the housing market seems to be losing its momentum yet again. On the flip side, industrial production beat expectations in April, and the better-than-expected Philly Fed and Empire State indices point to solid growth in manufacturing too."
• "The technical picture remains encouraging for bulls, as the major indices seem to be on track to leave behind the 3-month long correction. The Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are all above their 50- and 200-day moving averages, and thanks to the recent rally, the short-term indices are likely to turn higher again soon. Small caps are spearheading the recovery after a brief period of weakness, as the Russell 2000 took out its January high well ahead of the broader indices. The Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 13, near the weekly open, despite a spike to the 15 level on Tuesday, as the “boring” sessions that followed pushed the measure lower."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.