Press review - page 630

[Sergey Golubev]

China and The US Stock Market (based on the article)

• "Recently, we openly discussed the potential for global turmoil related to Europe, Asia, China, and South America. The issues before the globe are that the global economy may not be firing in sync and that there are credit and debt, as well as geopolitical, issues that persist. The interesting component of all of this is that the US stock market has staged a very impressive recovery over the past two weeks that have shocked even the best Wall Street analysts and researchers. While the US recovered from elections, the Fed, FANG price collapse and a Government Shutdown, the US stock markets appeared to be falling off a cliff. Then, almost exactly on Christmas Eve, the markets turned around - even in the midst of all of this uncertainty." 

• "Now, nearly 3 weeks after Christmas, the US stock market appears to be shaking off the negativity and headed for higher price levels. China announced a plan to eliminate the trade barriers between the US by providing a 10-year plan to gradually eliminate any US trade deficit. Even though China has discussed this plan before, the US stock market ate it up like a starving man on a deserted island. The ES rallied over 3.35% this week. The NQ rallied over 3.0% and the YM rallied over 3.25% week."

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The charts were made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2019-01-21 02:00 GMT | [CNY - GDP]

• past data is 6.5%
• forecast data is 6.5%
• actual data is 6.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From cnbc article :

• "China on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 - the slowest pace since 1990.""Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, matching expectations. That was a decline from the 6.5 percent year-over-year growth in the third quarter of 2018."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Forex Quotes Explained (based on the article)

What are forex quotes?

A forex quote is the price of one currency in terms of another currency. These quotes always involve currency pairs because you are buying one currency by selling another. For example, the price of one Euro may cost $1.1404 when viewing the EUR/USD currency pair. Brokers will typically quote two prices for any currency pair and receive the difference (spread) between the two prices, under normal market conditions.

Example of EUR/USD forex quote

Understanding Forex Quote Basics

In order to read currency pairs correctly, traders should be aware of the following fundamentals of a forex quote: 
ISO code: The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) develop and publish international standards and have applied this to global currencies. This means each country's currency is abbreviated to three letters. For example, the Euro is shortened to EUR and the US dollar to USD.

Base currency and variable currency: Forex quotes show two currencies, the base currency, which appears first and the quote or variable currency, which appears last. The price of the first currency is always reflected in units of the second currency. Sticking with the earlier EUR/USD example, it is clear to see that one Euro will cost one dollar, 14 cents and 04 pips. This is unusual as you cannot physically hold fractions of one cent but this is a common feature of the foreign exchange market.

Bid and ask price

When trading forex, a currency pair will always quote two different prices as shown below:

The bid(SELL) price is the price that traders can sell currency at, and the ask(BUY) price is the price that traders can buy currency at. Traders will always be looking to buy forex when the price is low and sell when the price rises; or sell forex in anticipation that the currency will depreciate and buy it back at a lower price in the future.

Spreads

The price to buy a currency will typically be more than the price to sell the currency. This difference is called the spread and is where the broker earns money for executing the trade. Spreads tend to be tighter (less) for major currency pairs due to their high trading volume and liquidity. The EUR/USD is the most widely traded currency pair, so it is no surprise that the spread in this example is 0.6 pips.

Direct vs Indirect Quotes

Quotes are often displayed in accordance with the "home currency" in mind i.e. the country you reside in. A direct quote for traders in the US, looking to buy Euros, will read EUR/USD and will be relevant to US citizens as the quote is in USD. This direct quote will provide US citizens with the price of one Euro, in terms of their home currency which is 1.1404.

The indirect quote is essentially the inverse of the direct currency (1/direct quote = 0.8769). It shows the value of one unit of domestic currency in terms of foreign currency. Indirect quotes can be useful to convert foreign currency purchases abroad into domestic currency.

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-01-24 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 39.0K
• forecast data is 17.3K
• actual data is 21.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

• "Employment increased 21,600 to 12,714,100. Full-time employment decreased 3,000 to 8,678,800 and part-time employment increased 24,600 to 4,035,300."
• "Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points (pts) to 5.0%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin ranging within 3,400 - 3,600 levels (based on the article)

• "A measure of bitcoin volatility reached a more-than two-month low today, offering the latest evidence of the digital currency's malaise. The cryptocurrency's rolling 14-day volatility declined to a reading of 40, its lowest since mid-November, according to data provided by U.S. asset manager Blockforce Capital. his compared to a reading of 100 at the start of 2019 and 85 four weeks ago, additional Blockforce Capital figures reveal."
• "Bitcoin prices have been trading within a relatively modest range lately, fluctuating primarily between $3,500 and $4,000 so far in 2019, according to CoinDesk price data. This contrasts with times of sharp volatility, for example last year, when bitcoin climbed from less than $1,000 to almost $20,000, additional CoinDesk figures show."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bullish breakout; 1.1441 is the key (based on the article)

• "The Euro looks to be resuming the downward trend started in January 2018 against the US Dollar, despite a spirited rise on Friday. The currency has breached counter-trend support guiding the retracement from mid-November lows. The latest surge conspicuously failed to undo that break, hinting it was corrective."
• "Overlapping layers of resistance now face buyers hoping for upside follow-through. The counter-trend support zone, two notable chart inflection areas and the outer bound of 12-month resistance would need to be overcome to meaningfully neutralize near-term selling pressure. That implies returning above 1.1552."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - Daily Bearish Ranging; 72.00 is the bullish reversal key (based on the article)

• "Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb. We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins."
• "Eventually, yes, oil will rally above $55 and attempt to target the $65+ price level. Yet we don’t believe that move is going to happen right now. We believe the global uncertainty; the slowing Chinese economy and the global supply glut will result in a fundamental price decrease before any momentum for an upside price move begins. Our analysis suggests a price move back below $50 ppb, likely targeting the $46~47 level, where basing may occur."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Nvidia’s stock: daily bearish breakdown (based on the article)

• "Nvidia’s stock was hammered today after it warned on Q4 earnings. The slump has been particularly bad — at this writing, it’s fallen 13.68 percent — because Nvidia’s Q4 2018 already wasn’t going to be as good as analysts were hoping back in Q3. When Nvidia made its Q3 2018 earnings announcement, it declared that the collapse in GPU demand for crypto mining had left it with a glut of Pascal GPUs to sell. As a result, it would not manufacture additional midrange cards in Q4 and would instead focus on moving its existing inventory. This led to Q4 earnings would be lower than what investors might expect."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

GOLD (XAU/USD) - weekly breakout with the bullish reversal; 1,325 is the key (based on the article)

• "Spot Gold: Retail trader data shows 68.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 8.9% higher than yesterday and 3.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.2% higher than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week."
• "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement  

2019-01-28 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -955M
• forecast data is 225M
• actual data is 264M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From official report :

• "Goods exports fell $27 million (0.5 percent) to $5.5 billion, the second-highest value for monthly total exports. The previous high was in December 2017."
• "Goods imports rose $323 million (6.6 percent) to $5.2 billion."
• "The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $264 million (4.8 percent of exports)."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event 

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install