Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

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Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.

Read about the fuzzy logic, digital filters, market profile, Kohonen maps, neural gas and many other tools that can be used for trading.

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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 24): FOREX (V)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 24): FOREX (V)

Today we will remove a limitation that has been preventing simulations based on the Last price and will introduce a new entry point specifically for this type of simulation. The entire operating mechanism will be based on the principles of the forex market. The main difference in this procedure is the separation of Bid and Last simulations. However, it is important to note that the methodology used to randomize the time and adjust it to be compatible with the C_Replay class remains identical in both simulations. This is good because changes in one mode lead to automatic improvements in the other, especially when it comes to handling time between ticks.
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Benefiting from Forex market seasonality

Benefiting from Forex market seasonality

We are all familiar with the concept of seasonality, for example, we are all accustomed to rising prices for fresh vegetables in winter or rising fuel prices during severe frosts, but few people know that similar patterns exist in the Forex market.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 23): FOREX (IV)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 23): FOREX (IV)

Now the creation occurs at the same point where we converted ticks into bars. This way, if something goes wrong during the conversion process, we will immediately notice the error. This is because the same code that places 1-minute bars on the chart during fast forwarding is also used for the positioning system to place bars during normal performance. In other words, the code that is responsible for this task is not duplicated anywhere else. This way we get a much better system for both maintenance and improvement.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 22): FOREX (III)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 22): FOREX (III)

Although this is the third article on this topic, I must explain for those who have not yet understood the difference between the stock market and the foreign exchange market: the big difference is that in the Forex there is no, or rather, we are not given information about some points that actually occurred during the course of trading.
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Population optimization algorithms: Stochastic Diffusion Search (SDS)

Population optimization algorithms: Stochastic Diffusion Search (SDS)

The article discusses Stochastic Diffusion Search (SDS), which is a very powerful and efficient optimization algorithm based on the principles of random walk. The algorithm allows finding optimal solutions in complex multidimensional spaces, while featuring a high speed of convergence and the ability to avoid local extrema.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 21): FOREX (II)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 21): FOREX (II)

We will continue to build a system for working in the FOREX market. In order to solve this problem, we must first declare the loading of ticks before loading the previous bars. This solves the problem, but at the same time forces the user to follow some structure in the configuration file, which, personally, does not make much sense to me. The reason is that by designing a program that is responsible for analyzing and executing what is in the configuration file, we can allow the user to declare the elements he needs in any order.
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Implementing the Generalized Hurst Exponent and the Variance Ratio test in MQL5

Implementing the Generalized Hurst Exponent and the Variance Ratio test in MQL5

In this article, we investigate how the Generalized Hurst Exponent and the Variance Ratio test can be utilized to analyze the behaviour of price series in MQL5.
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Population optimization algorithms: Mind Evolutionary Computation (MEC) algorithm

Population optimization algorithms: Mind Evolutionary Computation (MEC) algorithm

The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 11): Number Walls

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 11): Number Walls

Number Walls are a variant of Linear Shift Back Registers that prescreen sequences for predictability by checking for convergence. We look at how these ideas could be of use in MQL5.
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Population optimization algorithms: Shuffled Frog-Leaping algorithm (SFL)

Population optimization algorithms: Shuffled Frog-Leaping algorithm (SFL)

The article presents a detailed description of the shuffled frog-leaping (SFL) algorithm and its capabilities in solving optimization problems. The SFL algorithm is inspired by the behavior of frogs in their natural environment and offers a new approach to function optimization. The SFL algorithm is an efficient and flexible tool capable of processing a variety of data types and achieving optimal solutions.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 19): Supercharge Your AI models with AdaBoost

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 19): Supercharge Your AI models with AdaBoost

AdaBoost, a powerful boosting algorithm designed to elevate the performance of your AI models. AdaBoost, short for Adaptive Boosting, is a sophisticated ensemble learning technique that seamlessly integrates weak learners, enhancing their collective predictive strength.
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Data label for time series mining (Part 6):Apply and Test in EA Using ONNX

Data label for time series mining (Part 6):Apply and Test in EA Using ONNX

This series of articles introduces several time series labeling methods, which can create data that meets most artificial intelligence models, and targeted data labeling according to needs can make the trained artificial intelligence model more in line with the expected design, improve the accuracy of our model, and even help the model make a qualitative leap!
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Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part II): Making a Simple Grid EA

Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part II): Making a Simple Grid EA

In this article, we explored the classic grid strategy, detailing its automation using an Expert Advisor in MQL5 and analyzing initial backtest results. We highlighted the strategy's need for high holding capacity and outlined plans for optimizing key parameters like distance, takeProfit, and lot sizes in future installments. The series aims to enhance trading strategy efficiency and adaptability to different market conditions.
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Algorithmic Trading With MetaTrader 5 And R For Beginners

Algorithmic Trading With MetaTrader 5 And R For Beginners

Embark on a compelling exploration where financial analysis meets algorithmic trading as we unravel the art of seamlessly uniting R and MetaTrader 5. This article is your guide to bridging the realms of analytical finesse in R with the formidable trading capabilities of MetaTrader 5.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 10). The Unconventional RBM

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 10). The Unconventional RBM

Restrictive Boltzmann Machines are at the basic level, a two-layer neural network that is proficient at unsupervised classification through dimensionality reduction. We take its basic principles and examine if we were to re-design and train it unorthodoxly, we could get a useful signal filter.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 18): The battle of Mastering Market Complexity, Truncated SVD Versus NMF

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 18): The battle of Mastering Market Complexity, Truncated SVD Versus NMF

Truncated Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF) are dimensionality reduction techniques. They both play significant roles in shaping data-driven trading strategies. Discover the art of dimensionality reduction, unraveling insights, and optimizing quantitative analyses for an informed approach to navigating the intricacies of financial markets.
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Data label for time series mining (Part 5):Apply and Test in EA Using Socket

Data label for time series mining (Part 5):Apply and Test in EA Using Socket

This series of articles introduces several time series labeling methods, which can create data that meets most artificial intelligence models, and targeted data labeling according to needs can make the trained artificial intelligence model more in line with the expected design, improve the accuracy of our model, and even help the model make a qualitative leap!
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Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5

Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5

In this article we demonstrate the implementation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and apply it to conduct cointegration tests using the Engle-Granger method.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 17): Money in the Trees? The Art and Science of Random Forests in Forex Trading

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 17): Money in the Trees? The Art and Science of Random Forests in Forex Trading

Discover the secrets of algorithmic alchemy as we guide you through the blend of artistry and precision in decoding financial landscapes. Unearth how Random Forests transform data into predictive prowess, offering a unique perspective on navigating the complex terrain of stock markets. Join us on this journey into the heart of financial wizardry, where we demystify the role of Random Forests in shaping market destiny and unlocking the doors to lucrative opportunities
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Brute force approach to patterns search (Part VI): Cyclic optimization

Brute force approach to patterns search (Part VI): Cyclic optimization

In this article I will show the first part of the improvements that allowed me not only to close the entire automation chain for MetaTrader 4 and 5 trading, but also to do something much more interesting. From now on, this solution allows me to fully automate both creating EAs and optimization, as well as to minimize labor costs for finding effective trading configurations.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 09): Pairing K-Means Clustering with Fractal Waves

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 09): Pairing K-Means Clustering with Fractal Waves

K-Means clustering takes the approach to grouping data points as a process that’s initially focused on the macro view of a data set that uses random generated cluster centroids before zooming in and adjusting these centroids to accurately represent the data set. We will look at this and exploit a few of its use cases.
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Filtering and feature extraction in the frequency domain

Filtering and feature extraction in the frequency domain

In this article we explore the application of digital filters on time series represented in the frequency domain so as to extract unique features that may be useful to prediction models.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 20): FOREX (I)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 20): FOREX (I)

The initial goal of this article is not to cover all the possibilities of Forex trading, but rather to adapt the system so that you can perform at least one market replay. We'll leave simulation for another moment. However, if we don't have ticks and only bars, with a little effort we can simulate possible trades that could happen in the Forex market. This will be the case until we look at how to adapt the simulator. An attempt to work with Forex data inside the system without modifying it leads to a range of errors.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 16): A Refreshing Look at Decision Trees

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 16): A Refreshing Look at Decision Trees

Dive into the intricate world of decision trees in the latest installment of our Data Science and Machine Learning series. Tailored for traders seeking strategic insights, this article serves as a comprehensive recap, shedding light on the powerful role decision trees play in the analysis of market trends. Explore the roots and branches of these algorithmic trees, unlocking their potential to enhance your trading decisions. Join us for a refreshing perspective on decision trees and discover how they can be your allies in navigating the complexities of financial markets.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 19): Necessary adjustments

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 19): Necessary adjustments

Here we will prepare the ground so that if we need to add new functions to the code, this will happen smoothly and easily. The current code cannot yet cover or handle some of the things that will be necessary to make meaningful progress. We need everything to be structured in order to enable the implementation of certain things with the minimal effort. If we do everything correctly, we can get a truly universal system that can very easily adapt to any situation that needs to be handled.
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Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part I): Making a Simple Hedge EA

Modified Grid-Hedge EA in MQL5 (Part I): Making a Simple Hedge EA

We will be creating a simple hedge EA as a base for our more advanced Grid-Hedge EA, which will be a mixture of classic grid and classic hedge strategies. By the end of this article, you will know how to create a simple hedge strategy, and you will also get to know what people say about whether this strategy is truly 100% profitable.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 18): Ticks and more ticks (II)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 18): Ticks and more ticks (II)

Obviously the current metrics are very far from the ideal time for creating a 1-minute bar. That's the first thing we are going to fix. Fixing the synchronization problem is not difficult. This may seem hard, but it's actually quite simple. We did not make the required correction in the previous article since its purpose was to explain how to transfer the tick data that was used to create the 1-minute bars on the chart into the Market Watch window.
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Market Reactions and Trading Strategies in Response to Dividend Announcements: Evaluating the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Stock Trading

Market Reactions and Trading Strategies in Response to Dividend Announcements: Evaluating the Efficient Market Hypothesis in Stock Trading

In this article, we will analyse the impact of dividend announcements on stock market returns and see how investors can earn more returns than those offered by the market when they expect a company to announce dividends. In doing so, we will also check the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of the Indian Stock Market.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 08): Perceptrons

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 08): Perceptrons

Perceptrons, single hidden layer networks, can be a good segue for anyone familiar with basic automated trading and is looking to dip into neural networks. We take a step by step look at how this could be realized in a signal class assembly that is part of the MQL5 Wizard classes for expert advisors.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 17): Ticks and more ticks (I)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 17): Ticks and more ticks (I)

Here we will see how to implement something really interesting, but at the same time very difficult due to certain points that can be very confusing. The worst thing that can happen is that some traders who consider themselves professionals do not know anything about the importance of these concepts in the capital market. Well, although we focus here on programming, understanding some of the issues involved in market trading is paramount to what we are going to implement.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 16): New class system

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 16): New class system

We need to organize our work better. The code is growing, and if this is not done now, then it will become impossible. Let's divide and conquer. MQL5 allows the use of classes which will assist in implementing this task, but for this we need to have some knowledge about classes. Probably the thing that confuses beginners the most is inheritance. In this article, we will look at how to use these mechanisms in a practical and simple way.
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The case for using a Composite Data Set this Q4 in weighing SPDR XLY's next performance

The case for using a Composite Data Set this Q4 in weighing SPDR XLY's next performance

We consider XLY, SPDR’s consumer discretionary spending ETF and see if with tools in MetaTrader’s IDE we can sift through an array of data sets in selecting what could work with a forecasting model with a forward outlook of not more than a year.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 15): Birth of the SIMULATOR (V) - RANDOM WALK

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 15): Birth of the SIMULATOR (V) - RANDOM WALK

In this article we will complete the development of a simulator for our system. The main goal here will be to configure the algorithm discussed in the previous article. This algorithm aims to create a RANDOM WALK movement. Therefore, to understand today's material, it is necessary to understand the content of previous articles. If you have not followed the development of the simulator, I advise you to read this sequence from the very beginning. Otherwise, you may get confused about what will be explained here.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 14): Birth of the SIMULATOR (IV)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 14): Birth of the SIMULATOR (IV)

In this article we will continue the simulator development stage. this time we will see how to effectively create a RANDOM WALK type movement. This type of movement is very intriguing because it forms the basis of everything that happens in the capital market. In addition, we will begin to understand some concepts that are fundamental to those conducting market analysis.
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Developing a quality factor for Expert Advisors

Developing a quality factor for Expert Advisors

In this article, we will see how to develop a quality score that your Expert Advisor can display in the strategy tester. We will look at two well-known calculation methods – Van Tharp and Sunny Harris.
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Combinatorially Symmetric Cross Validation In MQL5

Combinatorially Symmetric Cross Validation In MQL5

In this article we present the implementation of Combinatorially Symmetric Cross Validation in pure MQL5, to measure the degree to which a overfitting may occure after optimizing a strategy using the slow complete algorithm of the Strategy Tester.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 13): Birth of the SIMULATOR (III)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 13): Birth of the SIMULATOR (III)

Here we will simplify a few elements related to the work in the next article. I'll also explain how you can visualize what the simulator generates in terms of randomness.
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The case for using Hospital-Performance Data with Perceptrons, this Q4, in weighing SPDR XLV's next Performance

The case for using Hospital-Performance Data with Perceptrons, this Q4, in weighing SPDR XLV's next Performance

XLV is SPDR healthcare ETF and in an age where it is common to be bombarded by a wide array of traditional news items plus social media feeds, it can be pressing to select a data set for use with a model. We try to tackle this problem for this ETF by sizing up some of its critical data sets in MQL5.
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Brute force approach to patterns search (Part V): Fresh angle

Brute force approach to patterns search (Part V): Fresh angle

In this article, I will show a completely different approach to algorithmic trading I ended up with after quite a long time. Of course, all this has to do with my brute force program, which has undergone a number of changes that allow it to solve several problems simultaneously. Nevertheless, the article has turned out to be more general and as simple as possible, which is why it is also suitable for those who know nothing about brute force.
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The price movement model and its main provisions. (Part 3): Calculating optimal parameters of stock exchange speculations

The price movement model and its main provisions. (Part 3): Calculating optimal parameters of stock exchange speculations

Within the framework of the engineering approach developed by the author based on the probability theory, the conditions for opening a profitable position are found and the optimal (profit-maximizing) take profit and stop loss values are calculated.