Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

A modular MQL5 toolkit computes and visualizes rolling Profit Factor over fixed trade-count windows. It presents the statistical motivation, an incremental algorithm that avoids recomputation, and a dedicated CCanvas rendering pipeline. The dashboard adds reference lines, shading for weak periods, and summary metrics, while a separate test suite validates the math, giving a practical way to monitor stability and detect deterioration in strategy behavior.

This article reframes performance from unconditional win rate to conditional probability given survival time. It introduces an MQL5 library, an on‑chart indicator, and a demo Expert Advisor that read deal history, fit Kaplan–Meier and Aalen–Johansen curves with competing risks, and report forward probabilities over a bar‑based horizon. Readers gain a reproducible way to quantify the chance that the current position reaches its target or stop, and to see the bias of the naive censoring approach.

This article extends the candlestick encoding framework by separating previously unclassified bullish and bearish candlesticks into distinct symbols. Using an MQL5 script, historical data were automatically encoded, sequential patterns were extracted, and frequency statistics were generated. The results show that these newly identified candles represent a significant portion of market activity, revealing structural information previously hidden by the generic underscore notation. The expanded taxonomy improves the completeness of the symbolic representation while preserving an objective, quantitative framework for large-scale market structure analysis.

We implement three MQL5 classes that replace fixed 1R/2R/3R targets with data-driven scale-out levels. CExcursionTracker records each closed trade's maximum favorable excursion in R, CExitLadderCalibrator derives runs from distribution percentiles with lookback and minimum-sample controls, and CLadderExecutor executes them on open positions. The ladder recalibrates as trades accumulate and uses a fallback until enough samples exist.

The article discusses the implementation of the Artificial Searching Swarm Algorithm (ASSA) in MQL5 as part of a unified test bench. The article examines three behavioral movement rules, the signal and global bulletin board mechanisms, space normalization, and the stepRatio and Pc parameters. Readers will receive a ready-made foundation for integrating ASSA, as well as an answer to the question of how successful the tactical metaphor proved to be as a basis for the competitiveness of the optimization algorithm.

Aggregate metrics like win rate or profit factor miss sequence-dependent behavior, such as sizing up right after a loss. This MQL5 script trains a small native neural network on closed-deal history to estimate loss probability from behavioral and market-context features. It reports accuracy uplift over a baseline, probability calibration, and permutation feature importance, then combines them into a configurable A-F grade with concise, plain-language recommendations.

A complete MQL5 implementation of the Ljung-Box test helps verify independence in trading data and fitted-model residuals. It computes sample autocorrelations, the Q statistic over selected horizons, degrees of freedom with user-controlled adjustments, and right-tail p-values via the regularized incomplete gamma function. Run it on returns, deal outcomes, or external residuals and review decisions directly in the Experts tab.

FX options are quoted in delta space, not by strike. This article implements an FX-native smile tool for MetaTrader 5: it converts ATM, risk reversal and butterfly quotes into strike-space pillars, prices with the Garman–Kohlhagen model, handles spot/forward and premium-adjusted delta conventions per pair, and draws the smile with a reconstructed strike ladder and Greeks.

The article provides a systematic overview of the theory of random variables, which serves as the basis for analyzing and modeling uncertainty in financial markets. The article covers the definitions and properties of univariate random variables, cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and probability density functions (PDFs), as well as the differences between discrete, continuous, and mixed models. The theoretical material is based on intuitive analogies with mass and density. The appendix to this article contains practical examples of using the standard MQL5 library to calculate probabilities, quantiles, and moments of distributions. It also demonstrates the graphical capabilities of the MetaTrader 5 platform for visual data analysis by plotting PDF and CDF curves and QQ plots.

Feature importance often understates correlated predictors by spreading one signal across many engineered copies, while unrelated noise can appear higher. We measure this effect against a known ground truth and compare four remedies: permutation importance with purged cross-validation, single-feature models, and clustered impurity versus clustered accuracy. The results include per-method rankings and a per-cluster dilution ratio that help identify true signals and avoid deleting valuable features.

We build an adaptive Fibonacci volatility band indicator in MQL5 that centers on a smoothed price (SMMA) and scales band width with a smoothed ATR. The article covers inputs, buffer mapping, ATR handling, and SMMA formulas, then projects configurable Fibonacci ratios with filled zones. Readers get a ready workflow for visualizing volatility expansion/contraction and outlining dynamic support and resistance.

Until now, the application being developed as part of this series of articles has focused exclusively on simulating the graphical part. However, to obtain a more complete system in which we can test the Expert Advisor within the replay/simulation service, we also need to simulate the trading server. You'll notice that this simulation will include only the most essential elements. Nevertheless, you, dear reader, will be able to fill in the missing parts. Since these additional components don't affect what I want to show, we already have more than enough to implement what we have in mind.

The article examines the practical application of finite differences in trading: types of differences, their relationship to price dynamics, and the binomial transform for noise filtering. The rules for encoding patterns based on difference levels and the application of these patterns to forecasting are described. This section presents naive, adaptive, and probabilistic approaches that help smooth time series, identify recurring patterns, and estimate future movements.

The article provides a critical analysis of an LLM strategy in which forecasting the direction is separated from trading decisions, and demonstrates why this leads to a disconnect between metrics and PnL. We will describe procedures for dataset balancing, feature engineering, prompt and response preparation, fine-tuning configuration in Ollama, and reliable parsing. Backtesting and forward testing reveal systematic degradation. The practical conclusion is that the problem must be formulated as a direct optimization of trading outcomes.

We're entering the home stretch. The development of the replay/simulation system is nearly complete. Of course, we still have a few things left to finish, but compared to everything we've already done, completing what's left won't be difficult. However, it is essential to fully absorb and understand everything covered in this article. So I hope you enjoy reading this and, above all, that you enjoy this final stage of the journey.

The article builds an MQL5 indicator that recovers the risk-neutral density from an option chain via the Breeden–Litzenberger identity. Quotes are inverted to implied volatilities, the smile is smoothed and priced back to arbitrage‑free calls, and the second derivative yields the density. The tool reports probabilities above any level, the expected move, skew and kurtosis, and overlays the realized-return distribution for comparison.

In this article, I have shown—in the clearest possible way—how to modify and improve code capable of handling specific tasks while making as few changes as possible to the existing code. We will add a volume display and, at the same time, ensure that users or traders cannot effectively remove objects created by the position indicator.

We consider a BAS+PSO (BSO) hybrid, where BAS provides a local direction signal and PSO facilitates the exchange of best solutions within the swarm. The article presents a mathematical model, pseudocode, an implementation of the class in MQL5, and test results from a standard test bench. This material allows reproducing the algorithm, configuring its parameters, and understanding how three objective-function evaluations per iteration affect efficiency.

In the previous article, we configured the indicator to display the financial result. However, not everyone likes using this display mode. The reasons differ from one trader to another, although in some cases they seem quite reasonable and justified to me. Adapting the code to provide this capability is by no means one of the most difficult tasks. It's actually pretty simple. In this article, we'll look at how to do this.

This article explains Monte Carlo simulation and analysis for trading and guides you through a Python tool that ingests MetaTrader 5 HTML reports. It generates many randomized equity paths, then summarizes them with max drawdown, bust/profit rates, and percentile envelopes around the mean curve. The workflow helps you assess uncertainty, separate normal behavior from outliers, and size positions accordingly.