Thetagold

THETAGOLD — Sequential State-Machine Trading with FVG Equilibrium Entries & Institutional Risk Management

ThetaGold is a production-grade Expert Advisor engineered for XAUUSD trading on IC Markets Raw accounts. Built to institutional coding standards, this EA implements a multi-timeframe sequential state machine that validates every entry through four distinct stages.

How ThetaGold Works

Stage 1: Session Gate
The EA trades exclusively during the London session (08:00-17:00 GMT) and London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 GMT). GMT offset is manually overridable for any broker.

Stage 2: Volatility Filter
ATR percentile filter ensures signals only generate when volatility falls within the 20th-80th percentile range. This prevents trading during abnormally quiet or excessively volatile conditions.

Stage 3: Trend Bias (H4)
Dual-EMA system (50/200) combined with ADX regime classification determines bullish, bearish, or ranging market conditions. ADX threshold of 25 confirms genuine trending environments.

Stage 4: Market Structure (H1)
Identifies Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHOCH), swing highs/lows, and liquidity pools including equal highs/lows, session levels, and prior day/week levels.

Stage 5: Entry Execution (M15)

  1. Liquidity sweep detection triggers the sequence

  2. Displacement candle confirms momentum strength

  3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) identification captures market inefficiency

  4. Limit order placed at FVG midpoint (equilibrium) for optimal risk placement

Risk Management

  • Configurable risk per trade: 0.25%-1.0% of equity

  • Dynamic lot sizing based on stop distance

  • ATR-based stop loss with minimum 1.5 R:R

  • Target R:R: 2.0-3.0

  • Max daily drawdown: 2% (halts trading for the day)

  • Max weekly drawdown: 5% (halts trading for the week)

  • Max concurrent positions: 2

  • Stop after 3 consecutive losses with configurable cooldown

  • Persistent equity-halt state across terminal restarts using GlobalVariables

  • No martingale, no grid, no averaging down

Exit Strategy

  • Breakeven at 1.0 R:R

  • Partial close 50% at 1.5 R:R

  • Trailing stop from 2.0 R:R with 0.5 R:R step

  • Session exit to prevent overnight gap exposure

News Filter

  • High-impact events only (FOMC, NFP, CPI, GDP, Central Bank decisions)

  • Blocks entries 60 minutes before and 30 minutes after

  • Graceful fallback: no trade if calendar unavailable

Performance Targets (Design Targets, Not Guarantees)

  • Trade frequency: 4-5 per week

  • Win rate: 55%+ with 2.0+ R:R

  • Profit factor: 1.4-1.8

  • Max weekly drawdown: <5%

What ThetaGold Does Not Do

  • No martingale, grid, or averaging down

  • No high-frequency trading

  • No curve-fitting (Sharpe ratio must remain below 5)

  • No over-optimized signals

Key Features

  • Multi-timeframe sequential state machine

  • FVG equilibrium entries at midpoint

  • Liquidity pool detection

  • Institutional risk management

  • News filter

  • Professional on-chart dashboard

  • Verbose debug logging

  • Object-oriented architecture

  • Full input optimization ranges

  • Multi-symbol robustness (validated on EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD)

Package Deliverables

  • Compiled .ex5 file

  • Full commented source code (.mq5 + all .mqh files)

  • Set files for all tested symbols

  • Complete strategy documentation

  • Backtest reports

  • Professional on-chart dashboard

Technical Specifications

Specification Detail
Platform MetaTrader 5 (MT5)
Minimum Build 3800+
Primary Symbol XAUUSD
Validation Symbols EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD
Timeframe Multi-timeframe (H4, H1, M15)
Recommended Broker IC Markets Raw
Minimum Deposit $1,000
Account Type ECN/Raw
Spread Requirement < 50 points on XAUUSD

Testing Methodology

  • 10+ years of tick-quality data (99% quality)

  • Real spread and commission modeled

  • In-sample / Out-of-sample split

  • Walk-forward analysis

  • Monte Carlo permutation

  • Parameter sensitivity sweep

Anti-Curve-Fitting Safeguards

  • Sharpe ratio must remain below 5

  • Win rate below 70%

  • Balanced buy/sell trades (minimum 40% each side)

  • Minimum 100 trades in sample

Disclaimer

ThetaGold is a trading tool, not a guaranteed money-making machine. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading carries substantial risk of loss. Never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Performance targets are design targets, not promises or guarantees.


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