Forecast and levels for GBP - page 19

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.21 10:52

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Unemployment Change and range price movement  

2020-01-21 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

  • past data is 15.0K
  • forecast data is 21.2K
  • actual data is 14.9K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "The UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.3%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.5 percentage points up on the previous quarter."
  • "The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier but largely unchanged on the previous quarter."
  • "Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain remained unchanged at 3.2% for total pay (including bonuses) and slowed to 3.4% from 3.5% for regular pay (excluding bonuses); the annual growth in total pay was weakened by unusually high bonus payments paid in October 2018 compared with more typical average bonus payments paid in October 2019."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.30 13:50

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2020-01-30 12:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is 0.75%
  • actual data is 0.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. 

==========

From official report :

  • "Our Monetary Policy Committee has voted by a majority of 7-2 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.75%. The committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of corporate bond purchases and UK government bond purchases."
  • "Monetary policy will be set to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. Policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth should the more positive signals from recent indicators of global and domestic activity not be sustained or should indicators of domestic prices remain relatively weak. Further ahead, if the economy recovers broadly in line with the MPC’s latest projections, some modest tightening of policy may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.11 11:45

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement  

2020-02-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is -0.3%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was flat in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2019, following revised growth of 0.5% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2019."
  • "Monthly gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3% in December 2019, driven by growth in services. This followed a fall of 0.3% in November 2019."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news event 

https://charts.mql5.com/23/535/gbpusd-m15-fx-choice-limited.png

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.18 13:42

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Unemployment Change and range price movement  

2020-02-18 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

  • past data is 2.6K
  • forecast data is 20.2K
  • actual data is 5.5K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "The UK employment rate was estimated at a record high of 76.5%, 0.6 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.4 percentage points up on the previous quarter."
  • "The UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous quarter."
  • "The UK economic inactivity rate was estimated at a record low of 20.5%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous year and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter."
  • "Estimated annual growth in average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain slowed to 2.9% from 3.2% last month for total pay (including bonuses) and to 3.2% from 3.4% for regular pay (excluding bonuses)."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.19 11:29

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement  

2020-02-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

  • past data is 1.3%
  • forecast data is 1.6%
  • actual data is 1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in January 2020, increasing from 1.4% in December 2019."
  • "The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in January 2020 came from housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (+0.55 percentage points), which increased by 0.19 percentage points since December 2019."
  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.8% in January 2020, increasing from 1.3% in December 2019."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Consumer Price Index news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.20 14:34

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Great Britain  Retail Sales and range price movement 

2020-02-20 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 0.7%
  • actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the three months to January 2020, the quantity bought in the retail sales industry fell by 0.8% when compared with the previous three months, with declines across all sectors."
  • "Retail volumes increased by 0.9% in January 2020, recovering from the falls in the previous two months; the increase was mainly because of moderate growth in both food stores (1.7%) and non-food stores (1.3%)."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain  Retail Sales news event 

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain Retail Sales news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.04 18:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 55.5
  • forecast data is 54.9
  • actual data is 57.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 57.3 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the January reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.8 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the January reading of 60.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 127th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 63.1 percent; 6.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.2 percent in January. The Employment Index increased 2.5 percentage points in February to 55.6 percent from the January reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index reading of 50.8 is 4.7 percentage points lower than the January’s 55.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected continued growth in February. Most respondents are concerned about the coronavirus and its supply chain impact. They also continue to have difficulty with labor resources. They do remain positive about business conditions and the overall economy."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.11 09:35

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2020-03-11 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight. The MPC cut the official bank rate by 0.50% to a target rate of 0.25% at an unscheduled emergency meeting.

==========

From official report :

  • "The front line of combatting the challenges of Covid-19 comprises the extraordinary efforts of NHS health professionals, carers, and volunteers across the country, as well as the exceptional support by the FCO to UK citizens abroad.""At its special meeting ending on 10 March 2020, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to reduce Bank Rate by 50 basis points to 0.25%.  The MPC voted unanimously for the Bank of England to introduce a new Term Funding scheme with additional incentives for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (TFSME), financed by the issuance of central bank reserves. The MPC voted unanimously to maintain the stock of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £10 billion. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock of UK government bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, at £435 billion."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by BoE Interest Rate Decision news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.26 09:47

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Great Britain  Retail Sales and range price movement 

2020-03-26 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 1.1%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the three months to February 2020, the quantity bought in retail sales fell for the fourth consecutive month by 0.6%; this was across all stores except non-store retailing.""In February 2020, the monthly growth rate in the quantity bought fell by 0.3%, with a range of retailers providing feedback on the adverse effect of the extreme rainfall on sales." "When compared with the same month a year earlier, February 2020 remained flat; the lowest year-on-year growth rate since March 2013 at negative 1.6%."

==========

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain  Retail Sales news event 

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain Retail Sales news event

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.02 17:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 3307K
  • forecast data is 3600K
  • actual data is 6648K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from 3,283,000 to 3,307,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,612,000, an increase of 1,607,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,000 from 998,250 to 1,004,250."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


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