Forecast and levels for AUD - page 4

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.01 09:03

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-06-01 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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From official report:

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.1% in April 2017. This follows a rise of 0.1% in March 2017 and a rise of 0.1% in February 2017."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.0% in April 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in March 2017 and a relatively unchanged February 2017 (0.0%)."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.06 08:15

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Rate Statement and Cash Rate, and range price movement 

2017-06-06 05:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

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From official report:

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices are generally higher than they were a year ago, providing a boost to Australia's national income. The prices of iron ore and coal, however, have declined over recent months as expected, unwinding some of the earlier increases."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.07 08:05

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-06-07 02:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

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From official report:

  • "The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the March quarter."
  • "Compensation of employees increased 1.0% and total corporations gross operating surplus increased 6.2%."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Gross Domestic Product news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.08 07:38

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Trade Balance and range price movement 

2017-06-08 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 3.17B
  • forecast data is 1.91B
  • actual data is 0.56B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month. 

==========

From official report:

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $3,224m in April 2017, a decrease of $70m (2%) on the surplus in March 2017."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $555m in April 2017, a decrease of $2,614m (82%) on the surplus in March 2017."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Trade Balance news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.14 20:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and Brent Crude Oil: FOMC Federal Funds Rate

2017-06-14 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 1.00%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report:

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.19 07:24

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-19 00:30 GMT | [AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks]

[AUD - RBA Gov Lowe Speaks] = Speech in a panel discussion at the Crawford Australian Leadership Forum, in Canberra. 

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From official report :

  • "In Australia, it is likely that growth over the next couple of years will be a bit stronger than it has been recently."
  • "As we search for the reforms that will make a difference, we need to be aware that the drivers of growth in our economy are changing. Natural resources remain our main export earner, but Australians are increasingly employed in service industries. Right across the spectrum, competitive advantage is increasingly built on technology and management capability. This trend is not going to go away and we need to capitalise on it. There is no magic solution. But, as I said before, the central ingredient lies in investment in human capital. If we are to grow strongly in the future, then that growth will be built just as much on the quality of our ideas as it is on the quality of our natural resources."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Gov Lowe Speaks news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 09:09

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and range price movement 

2017-06-20 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes]

[AUD - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes] = Detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

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From official report :

  • "That said, there were some notable details: an intriguing new paragraph on financial stability in the ‘Considerations for Monetary Policy’ section; a slightly more bullish/hawkish discussion of international conditions; and several useful snippets from the detailed discussion including those gleaned from the Bank’s liaison programme."
  • "As per the Governor’s decision statement, the slower growth picture for the March quarter was acknowledged but attributed to “quarter to quarter variation” with the Bank’s positive medium term outlook for growth to rise to a little above 3% reaffirmed."
  • "The labour market commentary in the minutes was perhaps a little more positive than in the Governor’s statement which explicitly described indicators as “mixed”. The minutes do not use this particular term although the rest of the discussion is the same. Note that the RBA meeting took place well before the surprisingly strong May labour force report released last Thursday."
  • "Monetary policy clearly remains firmly on hold as the Board assesses developments in housing and labour markets. The strong May labour force report released the week after the Bank’s June meeting would have eased some of its concerns on this front, although weak wages growth is likely still a factor (indeed this is one aspect of current conditions that could have received more discussion in the minutes which simply noted the link to consumer incomes and spending). It may also be becoming more comfortable around housing market risks as well although the situation here is clearly still evolving."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes news event


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.26 07:12

AUD/USD - ranging near intra-day bullish reversal; 0.7582 is the key (based on the article)

H4 intra-day price is on ranging near and below Senkou Span line on the border between the primary bearish and the ranging bullish area of the chart. If the price breaks ascending triangle pattern to above together with 0.7582 resistance level so the bullish reversal will be started, otherwise - bearish ranging for the waiting for direction of the strong trend.


"For those intraday traders, we can pinpoint the pattern a little further. A shorter term key level to watch for is the June 13 low of .7524. Holding above this low keeps new highs towards .7640 vulnerable. A break below this level puts bulls on ice while support may form above .7329."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 13:08

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for AUD/USD (based on the article)


AUD/USD - "The RBA will give us its July monetary policy decision on Tuesday, when the Official Cash Rate is firmly expected to remain at its 1.50% record low. Assuming it does, all will hinge on what the RBA says to the market in the aftermath. AUD/USD has reportedly risen in the last few days precisely on the expectation that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will indeed join his international colleagues and warn that ultra-low rates’ best days are behind them. Moreover, bets on any actual rate increases from the RBA remain long shots. According to index provider ASX, futures markets do not yet fully price a rise at any meeting between now and November 2018. That said, the yield curve now implied by 30-day cash-rate futures suggests somewhat higher rates than it did at the start of last week; just not a full, quarter percentage point rise."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 08:47

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia's Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-07-03 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is 4.8%
  • forecast data is -1.2%
  • actual data is -5.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

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From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 1.9% in May and has fallen for three months."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 5.6% in May following a rise of 4.8% in the previous month."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australia's Building Approvals news event



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