Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 9

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.12 16:16

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and GOLD: U.S. Consumer Price Index

2018-06-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items  index rose 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment."
  • "The indexes for gasoline and shelter were the largest factors in the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index, as they were in April. The gasoline index increased 1.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in some of the other energy component indexes and led to a 0.9-percent rise in the energy index. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged over the month."
  • "The all items index rose 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending May, continuing its upward trend since the beginning of the year. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent for the 12 months ending May. The food index increased 1.2  percent, and the energy index rose 11.7 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

Dollar Index by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

NZD/USD by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by by U.S. Consumer Price Index news events

GOLD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5 and MT4:

  • BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
  • Rules to trade manually
  • How to install  
  • TSD DS jurik BrainTrading system - the key thread 
  • TSD BrainTrading Stochastics system - the post 
  • BrainTrading Semi-Manual EA for M30 timeframe system - the thread 
  • The differences between Brainwashing and BrainTrading system - the post.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.28 16:19

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and GOLD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2018-06-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first quarter of 2018 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.9 percent."

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EUR/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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GBP/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

GBP/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) news events

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.12 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2018-07-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

NZD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events


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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.01 09:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-07-31 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 127.1
  • forecast data is 126.5
  • actual data is 127.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased marginally in July, following a modest decline in June. The Index now stands at 127.4 (1985=100), up from 127.1 in June. The Present Situation Index improved from 161.7 to 165.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 104.0 last month to 101.7 this month."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index (DXY) chart by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.17 11:09

GOLD (XAU/USD) - global bearish reversal (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Gold has plummeted more than 14% off the January highs with price registering fresh yearly lows into downtrend support this week. Today's response to technical support threatens a near-term recovery in price with momentum extremes and shifts in trader sentiment further highlighting this risk. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter for Gold."
  • "Gold prices are poised to close lower for a sixth consecutive week- the last four instances of such an occurrence were at the December 2016 lows (down 7-weeks), the November 2015 lows, the August 2015 lows (down 7-weeks) and the July 2010 low. In each of these instances, price advanced a minimum of 9% in the following weeks. With that in mind, momentum is still deep in oversold territory and while the broader risk is still lower - IF price is going to rebound, this would be a good spot to look."

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The chart was made on W1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.27 07:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): FOMC Rate and Statement

2018-09-26 19:00 GMT | [USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision]

  • past data is 2.00%
  • forecast data is 2.25%
  • actual data is 2.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Fed Interest Rate Decision] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent."
  • "In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments."

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

Crude Oil M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Fed Interest Rate Decision news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.29 06:29

Gold (XAU/USD) and Silver (XAG/US) - weekly rally to the bullish reversal (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

SILVER (XAG/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Gold was heading for its smallest monthly trading range since July 1996 at only 2.07% from low to high, but yesterday’s move edged gold out of the range. Nevertheless, it’s still been an unusually tight set of trading conditions, and with gold pushing down out of the range we should be in for vol expansion. If things start to real heat up and gold sinks below last month’s low, there isn’t anything solid until near 1120, the December 2016 low. In the near-term, the bottom portion of the recent range in the vicinity of 1187/90 should cap a bounce if the breakdown is to remain valid."
  • "Silver is of course not looking to healthy either, but is showing some relative strength compared to its yellow counterpart. Even as such, it still doesn’t look very healthy with a bear-flag forming following a failure to hold above the August low. Look for it to undercut the monthly low here soon. Big support arrives not far below at the December 2015 low of 13.65."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.05 09:33

GOLD (XAU/USD) - weekly ranging in bearish zone (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) weekly AscTrend chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Retail trader data shows 83.7% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.15 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.8% higher than yesterday and 6.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.7% lower than yesterday and 19.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Spot Gold trading bias."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.19 08:13

GOLD (XAU/USD) -  daily bullish reeversal; 1233 is the key (based on the article)

GOLD (XAU/USD) daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The breakout above yearly down-trend resistance in Gold has fueled a rally of nearly 4% off the monthly lows with the advance failing just ahead of a key resistance range in price. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts."

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.23 19:48

Gold (XAU/USD) - daily bullish breakout; long-term possible bullish reversal (based on the article)

Gold (XAU/USD) by Metatrader 5

Gold (XAU/USD) by Metatrader 5

Gold (XAU/USD) by Metatrader 5

  • "Gold has been on the offensive with the price breakout now testing BIG technical resistance after rallying more than 6.5% off the yearly lows. While the broader focus remains higher, the immediate advance looks vulnerable as price approaches this critical barrier."
  • "A closer look at price action shows gold continuing to trade within the confines of the ascending pitchfork formation. A multi-day consolidation structure looks to have broken today- but the advance is running into some key technical targets on the topside. The immediate focus is on a reaction at this key resistance barrier."
  • "Long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 4.7% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Spot Gold price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post


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