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Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 3

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.26 15:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-06-26 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.5%
  • actual data is -1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From MarketWatch article:

  • "Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar decline in April, the government reported Monday."
  • "A key measure of business investment known as core capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of 2017. Investment had accelerated late last year after a prolonged slump, but the recent upsurge now appears to have tapered off. U.S. futures markets pointed to a higher opening for the Dow Jones Industrial Average."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events



Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.26 19:00

GOLD (XAU/USD) - intraday bearish to be resumed; daily bearish reversal; 1,240/1,236 are the keys (based on the article)

  • Intra-day price on H4 chart is on testing 1,240 to below for the bearish trend to be resumed with 1,236 nearest target to re-enter.
  • Daily price is reversing to the primary bearish market condition by 1,240 support level to be testing to below with 1,236 target to be re-enter for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.
  • Weekly price is located near and above Ichimoku cloud on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish condition.
  • Monthly price is already in bearish condition for the ranging within narrow s/r levels waiting for direction of the strong trend to be started.



  • "The week has started on a fleet foot for Gold prices, as the yellow metal has run down to set a new monthly low before the U.S. opens for business. The driver of the move appears to be a German IFO survey that printed at its strongest reading in 47 years, and this is the highest level that we’ve seen the indicator print since the reunification of Germany. With sentiment surveys, we’ll often see a type of leading relationship; so this IFO survey is highlighting that we may see a stronger pattern of growth in the months-ahead as Germany goes into an election cycle beginning in August."
  • "We’ve seen an outsized move to open the week, we can associate the predominant trend as being bearish. But – given the four hours of price action that we’ve seen where buyers have pushed prices back above prior support at $1,240, and traders would probably want to wait for a better with nearby resistance rather than chasing the move. On the 30-minute chart below, we’re looking at four potential areas to watch for ‘lower-high’ resistance in trading the move-lower."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.01 13:15

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "Highlighting the economic docket next week are the U.S. ISM figures, FOMC minutes and the June Non-Farm Payrolls report. With the Fed looking to begin offloading its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, U.S. data will need to continue to perform – as it stands markets are pricing just a 54% chance the central bank will hike in December. For gold, the outlook heading into the monthly open remains precarious with the decline now approaching broader up-trend support as sentiment begins to level off."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.03 17:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-07-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The June PMI® registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the May reading of 54.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from the May reading of 59.5 percent. The Production Index registered 62.4 percent, a 5.3 percentage point increase compared to the May reading of 57.1 percent."
  • "The Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the May reading of 53.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries index registered 57 percent, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the May reading of 53.1 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.04 12:00

GOLD - intra-day bearish reversal with breakdown; 1.1219 level is the key (based on the article)

H4 price was bounced from 1,254 resistance level which is Senkou Span line and virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is on bearish breakout with 1,1219 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "The traders return on Wednesday to the release of FOMC meeting minutes from the bank’s rate decision in June followed by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. And given the pronounced down-trend that’s been seen in the Greenback of late, with fresh 10-month lows printing on Friday just ahead of the close of Q2 – there will likely be considerable focus on these drivers as traders attempt to read the tea leaves around what the Fed might be doing in the second half of the year."
  • "This is relevant for Gold prices given the fact that the continued sell-off in the Dollar has failed to inspire any lasting strength in Gold: While the U.S. Dollar drove down to 10-month lows, Gold prices continued to sell-off to fresh seven-week lows, and this speaks to the rising inflation expectations being seen globally after last week’s comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President, Mario Draghi. This can keep Gold prices moving-lower even, with USD-weakness, and traders can continue to move-forward with a down-side bias for Gold prices."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.08 17:06

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


XAU/USD"Highlighting the economic docket next week will be the semi-annual Humphry Hawkins monetary policy testimony before Congress. U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls released on Friday highlighted a gain of 222K jobs last month with the labor force participation rate rebounding from a 6-month low to 62.8%. Average hourly earnings continued to disappoint however with a downward revision to last month’s read further emphasizing weakness in the inflationary outlook. That said, we’ll be looking for a fresh batch of commentary / questioning regarding the committees willingness to begin offloading the massive balance sheet this year and beyond the prepared remarks traders will be lending a keen ear to the Q&A session with Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures are also on tap later next week and could fuel added volatility in both the USD & Gold."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.14 14:45

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): Retail Sales

2017-07-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.1%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is -0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From CNBC article :

  • "The Commerce Department said on Friday retail sales fell 0.2 percent last month, weighed down by declines in receipts at service stations, clothing stores and supermarkets. Americans also cut back on spending at restaurants and bars, as well as on hobbies."
  • "May's retail sales were revised to show a 0.1 percent dip instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent drop. Retail sales rose 2.8 percent year-on-year in June."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by Retail Sales news events

Retail Sales news event

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All the charts were made using Metatrader 5 with Brainwashing trading system:

Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.16 10:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (XAU/USD) (based on the article)


XAU/USD - "The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Retail Sales figures came in shy of consensus estimates on Friday, fueling another sell-off in the dollar. The data comes on the back of this week’s semi-annual Humphrey Hawkins testimony before congress where Fed Chair Janet Yellen cited a more dovish outlook on monetary policy. The committee judged that “because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance.” At the same time, Yellen left the door open for further easing measures should market conditions deteriorate."


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 12:10

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GOLD (based on the article)


XAU/USD"Gold prices rebounded for a second consecutive week with the precious metal surging 2.06% to trade at 1253 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The advance marks the largest weekly gain since May and has been supported by continued weakness in the greenback with the DXY down more than 1.3%. Looking ahead to next week, price action looks poised for another push higher with key U.S. event risk on tap."


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gold

Lahcene Ouled Moussa, 2017.07.25 11:22

Gold is overbought temporarily! Gold needs a correction before the next trend! 
We sell gold at the resistance of 1258-1263 with target at 1238-1243!gold



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