Press review - page 600

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-03-25 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -655M
• forecast data is -100M
• actual data is 217M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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From rttnews article :

• "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$217 million in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday - representing 4.9 percent of exports. The headline figure exceeded expectations for a deficit of NZ$100 million following the downwardly revised NZ$655 million deficit in January (originally -NZ$566 million)."

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NZD/USD M15: range price movement by Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - the global bullish reversal to be started (based on the article)

Monthly price is on asecondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is breaking the last Senkou Span line together woth 200-SMA to above for the global bullish reversal to eb started,

• "The euro area is set to continue expanding buoyed by global economic activity growth and export demand, according to Eurozone Economic Outlook jointly published by Ifo Institute, Italy's statistical office Istat and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 0.6 percent each in the first and second quarters of 2018. But it is expected to slow slightly to 0.5 percent in the third quarter."
• "On a yearly basis, HICP inflation is forecast to be 1.3 percent in the first quarter 2018 and to pick up to 1.6 percent in the second quarter. In the third quarter, inflation is expected to rise moderately, reaching a rate of 1.7 percent."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post and Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators from CodeBase:

• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-03-28 01:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

• past data is -19.0
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is -20.0 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

• "The activity outlook in New Zealand showed modest improvement in March, the latest survey from ANZ Bank revealed on Wednesday with an index score of 21.8."
• "However, the bank also noted that its business confidence index sank to a reading of -20, from -19 in the previous month."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on article)

Updates to the 4Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal of the greenback as the fresh revision is expected to show the economy growing an annualized 2.7% versus an initial forecast of 2.5%. The final reading for the 3Q U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report showed an unexpected downward revision in the growth rate, with the economy expanding an annualized 3.2% versus an initial forecast of 3.3%. A deeper look at the report showed the gauge for Personal Consumption also narrowing to 2.2% from earlier projections of 2.3%, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, slowing to 1.3% from 1.4% during the same period. The initial reaction was short-lived, with EUR/USD pulling back towards the 1.1850 region, but the pair regained its footing during the North American trade to end the day at 1.1874. 

What’s Expected:

Why Is This Event Important:

Signs of stronger-than-expected activity may encourage the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to deliver one rate-hike at every quarterly meeting, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs as ‘the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate.’ In turn, a batch of positive developments may foster a bullish reaction in the U.S. dollar as the central bank appears to be on course to further normalize monetary policy over the coming months.

However, a set of below-forecast prints may trigger a bearish reaction in the greenback as it drags on interest-rate expectations, with EUR/USD at risk of staging a more meaningful advance over the coming days as it breaks out of a narrow range.

How To Trade This Event Risk

• EUR/USD pulls back from a fresh weekly-high (1.2476), but the near-term outlook remains tilted to the topside as it breaks out of a narrow range.
• Need a close above back the 1.2430 (50% expansion) to keep the 2018-high (1.2556) on the radar, with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.2640 (61.8% expansion) to 1.2650 (38.2% retracement) followed by the 1.2860 (50% expansion) region.
• Keeping a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it snaps the bearish formation carried over from the previous month and appears to be extending the upward trend from late last year.

Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURUSD Daily

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fibo Bar MT5 - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news even

[Sergey Golubev]

Dax Index - weekly breakdown; 11,730 support is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is breaking Ichimoku cloud to below: the price is testing 11,730 support level for the bearish reversal to be started.

• "The DAX made a lower-low on Monday within the confines of a maturing bearish channel dating back to the early-part of February. The price sequence is marked by a series of clear lower-lows and lower-highs, and as long as the index stays below the upper parallel the outlook remains broadly bearish, with the weakening price action possibly resulting in a swift move lowe soon. Specifically, support at 11726 is about to come under fire again shortly. On a move to fresh lows, the lower parallel isn’t seen as holding for much longer. There is minor support at 11428, but nothing substantial until a trend-line extending higher from 2011, which doesn’t arrive for a solid 1000 points from current levels."
• "This doesn’t mean the market will decline to that point in one clip, but the DAX is trading in dangerous territory where worthy levels of support aren’t highly visible. To turn the picture bullish, a lot of work will need to be done from current levels. The next time we turn bullish might not be until we’ve seen a capitulation-style sell-off marking a bottoming-type event."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post together with the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Chris Mukengeshayi]

Sergey Golubev:

EUR/USD - the global bullish reversal to be started (based on the article)

Monthly price is on asecondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is breaking the last Senkou Span line together woth 200-SMA to above for the global bullish reversal to eb started,

• "The euro area is set to continue expanding buoyed by global economic activity growth and export demand, according to Eurozone Economic Outlook jointly published by Ifo Institute, Italy's statistical office Istat and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 0.6 percent each in the first and second quarters of 2018. But it is expected to slow slightly to 0.5 percent in the third quarter."
• "On a yearly basis, HICP inflation is forecast to be 1.3 percent in the first quarter 2018 and to pick up to 1.6 percent in the second quarter. In the third quarter, inflation is expected to rise moderately, reaching a rate of 1.7 percent."

============

The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post and Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators from CodeBase:

• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Nice one, well accurate.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-03-29 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 0.2%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is -0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

• "Real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% in January, offsetting part of the 0.2% growth in December. The decline was mainly the result of lower output of non-conventional oil extraction and decreased activity in real estate. The 20 industrial sectors were evenly split between increases and decreases."

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USD/CAD M1: range price movement by Canada Gross Domestic Product news event 

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

China’s central bank to clean up vvirtual currencies (based on the article)

China’s central bank said it would clean up various sorts of virtual currencies in 2018, its latest effort to step up financial supervision.

Last September, Chinese authorities including the People’s Bank of China ordered a ban on initial coin offerings, in which technology startups issue their own digital coins to investors to access funds, and shut down all virtual currency exchanges in the country.

The tough measures led to a sharp decline in virtual currency transaction volumes in China, according to Financial News, a publication run by the PBOC.

PBOC deputy governor Fan Yifei said the bank will step up reform and innovation and continue to steadily carry forward the central bank’s research and development of digital currency.

To ensure order in the circulation of the yuan, the PBOC will tighten supervision and strengthen quality management and control, according to an online statement released yesterday.

[Indanguang Samrow Panmei]

does news really affect long term trend??

[Sergey Golubev]

Indanguang Samrow Panmei:
does news really affect long term trend??

depends on on news