MetaTrader 5 Machine Learning Blueprint (Part 8): Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization with Purged Cross-Validation and Trial Pruning
GridSearchCV and RandomizedSearchCV share a fundamental limitation in financial ML: each trial is independent, so search quality does not improve with additional compute. This article integrates Optuna — using the Tree-structured Parzen Estimator — with PurgedKFold cross-validation, HyperbandPruner early stopping, and a dual-weight convention that separates training weights from evaluation weights. The result is a five-component system: an objective function with fold-level pruning, a suggestion layer that optimizes the weighting scheme jointly with model hyperparameters, a financially-calibrated pruner, a resumable SQLite-backed orchestrator, and a converter to scikit-learn cv_results_ format. The article also establishes the boundary — drawn from Timothy Masters — between statistical objectives where directed search is beneficial and financial objectives where it is harmful.
Application of Nash's Game Theory with HMM Filtering in Trading
This article delves into the application of John Nash's game theory, specifically the Nash Equilibrium, in trading. It discusses how traders can utilize Python scripts and MetaTrader 5 to identify and exploit market inefficiencies using Nash's principles. The article provides a step-by-step guide on implementing these strategies, including the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and statistical analysis, to enhance trading performance.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Multi-Agent Self-Adaptive Model (Final Part)
In the previous article, we introduced the multi-agent self-adaptive framework MASA, which combines reinforcement learning approaches and self-adaptive strategies, providing a harmonious balance between profitability and risk in turbulent market conditions. We have built the functionality of individual agents within this framework. In this article, we will continue the work we started, bringing it to its logical conclusion.
Developing a trading Expert Advisor from scratch (Part 26): Towards the future (I)
Today we will take our order system to the next level. But before that, we need to solve a few problems. Now we have some questions that are related to how we want to work and what things we do during the trading day.
Building A Candlestick Trend Constraint Model (Part 5): Notification System (Part I)
We will breakdown the main MQL5 code into specified code snippets to illustrate the integration of Telegram and WhatsApp for receiving signal notifications from the Trend Constraint indicator we are creating in this article series. This will help traders, both novices and experienced developers, grasp the concept easily. First, we will cover the setup of MetaTrader 5 for notifications and its significance to the user. This will help developers in advance to take notes to further apply in their systems.
Risk Management (Part 3): Building the Main Class for Risk Management
In this article, we will begin creating a core risk management class that will be key to controlling risks in the system. We will focus on building the foundations, defining the basic structures, variables and functions. In addition, we will implement the necessary methods for setting maximum profit and loss values, thereby laying the foundation for risk management.
Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 1): Engle-Granger and Johansen Cointegration Tests
This article aims to provide a trader-friendly, gentle introduction to the most common cointegration tests, along with a simple guide to understanding their results. The Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests can reveal statistically significant pairs or groups of assets that share long-term dynamics. The Johansen test is especially useful for portfolios with three or more assets, as it calculates the strength of cointegrating vectors all at once.
Building a Candlestick Trend Constraint Model (Part 10): Strategic Golden and Death Cross (EA)
Did you know that the Golden Cross and Death Cross strategies, based on moving average crossovers, are some of the most reliable indicators for identifying long-term market trends? A Golden Cross signals a bullish trend when a shorter moving average crosses above a longer one, while a Death Cross indicates a bearish trend when the shorter average moves below. Despite their simplicity and effectiveness, manually applying these strategies often leads to missed opportunities or delayed trades.
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 14): Adaptive volume change in risk manager
The previously developed risk manager contained only basic functionality. Let's try to consider possible ways of its development, allowing us to improve trading results without interfering with the logic of trading strategies.
Chaos theory in trading (Part 1): Introduction, application in financial markets and Lyapunov exponent
Can chaos theory be applied to financial markets? In this article, we will consider how conventional Chaos theory and chaotic systems are different from the concept proposed by Bill Williams.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 93): Adaptive Forecasting in Frequency and Time Domains (Final Part)
In this article, we continue the implementation of the approaches of the ATFNet model, which adaptively combines the results of 2 blocks (frequency and time) within time series forecasting.
News Trading Made Easy (Part 5): Performing Trades (II)
This article will expand on the trade management class to include buy-stop and sell-stop orders to trade news events and implement an expiration constraint on these orders to prevent any overnight trading. A slippage function will be embedded into the expert to try and prevent or minimize possible slippage that may occur when using stop orders in trading, especially during news events.
Neural Networks in Trading: Transformer with Relative Encoding
Self-supervised learning can be an effective way to analyze large amounts of unlabeled data. The efficiency is provided by the adaptation of models to the specific features of financial markets, which helps improve the effectiveness of traditional methods. This article introduces an alternative attention mechanism that takes into account the relative dependencies and relationships between inputs.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 40): Market DNA Passport
This article explores the unique identity of each currency pair through the lens of its historical price action. Inspired by the concept of genetic DNA, which encodes the distinct blueprint of every living being, we apply a similar framework to the markets, treating price action as the “DNA” of each pair. By breaking down structural behaviors such as volatility, swings, retracements, spikes, and session characteristics, the tool reveals the underlying profile that distinguishes one pair from another. This approach provides more profound insight into market behavior and equips traders with a structured way to align strategies with the natural tendencies of each instrument.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 60): Objective Swing-Based Trendlines for Structural Analysis
We present a rule-based approach to trendlines that avoids indicator pivots and uses ordered swings derived from raw prices. The article walks through swing detection, size qualification via ATR or fixed thresholds, and validation of ascending and descending structures, then implements these rules in MQL5 with non-repainting drawing and selective output. You get a clear, repeatable way to track structural support and resistance that holds up across market conditions.
Portfolio optimization in Forex: Synthesis of VaR and Markowitz theory
How does portfolio trading work on Forex? How can Markowitz portfolio theory for portfolio proportion optimization and VaR model for portfolio risk optimization be synthesized? We create a code based on portfolio theory, where, on the one hand, we will get low risk, and on the other, acceptable long-term profitability.
Billiards Optimization Algorithm (BOA)
The BOA method is inspired by the classic game of billiards and simulates the search for optimal solutions as a game with balls trying to fall into pockets representing the best results. In this article, we will consider the basics of BOA, its mathematical model, and its efficiency in solving various optimization problems.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 92): Adaptive Forecasting in Frequency and Time Domains
The authors of the FreDF method experimentally confirmed the advantage of combined forecasting in the frequency and time domains. However, the use of the weight hyperparameter is not optimal for non-stationary time series. In this article, we will get acquainted with the method of adaptive combination of forecasts in frequency and time domains.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 57): Developing a Market State Classification Module in MQL5
This article develops a market state classification module for MQL5 that interprets price behavior using completed price data. By examining volatility contraction, expansion, and structural consistency, the tool classifies market conditions as compression, transition, expansion, or trend, providing a clear contextual framework for price action analysis.
Developing a Replay System (Part 59): A New Future
Having a proper understanding of different ideas allows us to do more with less effort. In this article, we'll look at why it's necessary to configure a template before the service can interact with the chart. Also, what if we improve the mouse pointer so we can do more things with it?
Developing a multi-currency Expert Advisor (Part 21): Preparing for an important experiment and optimizing the code
For further progress it would be good to see if we can improve the results by periodically re-running the automatic optimization and generating a new EA. The stumbling block in many debates about the use of parameter optimization is the question of how long the obtained parameters can be used for trading in the future period while maintaining the profitability and drawdown at the specified levels. And is it even possible to do this?
Neural networks made easy (Part 80): Graph Transformer Generative Adversarial Model (GTGAN)
In this article, I will get acquainted with the GTGAN algorithm, which was introduced in January 2024 to solve complex problems of generation architectural layouts with graph constraints.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 56): Bill Williams Fractals
The Fractals by Bill Williams is a potent indicator that is easy to overlook when one initially spots it on a price chart. It appears too busy and probably not incisive enough. We aim to draw away this curtain on this indicator by examining what its various patterns could accomplish when examined with forward walk tests on all, with wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Developing a Replay System (Part 27): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (I)
In this article we will implement the C_Mouse class. It provides the ability to program at the highest level. However, talking about high-level or low-level programming languages is not about including obscene words or jargon in the code. It's the other way around. When we talk about high-level or low-level programming, we mean how easy or difficult the code is for other programmers to understand.
Integrate Your Own LLM into EA (Part 4): Training Your Own LLM with GPU
With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 75): Using Awesome Oscillator and the Envelopes
The Awesome Oscillator by Bill Williams and the Envelopes Channel are a pairing that could be used complimentarily within an MQL5 Expert Advisor. We use the Awesome Oscillator for its ability to spot trends, while the envelopes channel is incorporated to define our support/resistance levels. In exploring this indicator pairing, we use the MQL5 wizard to build and test any potential these two may possess.
Implementation of a Breakeven Mechanism in MQL5 (Part 1): Base Class and Fixed-Points Breakeven Mode
This article discusses the application of a breakeven mechanism in automated strategies using the MQL5 language. We will start with a simple explanation of what the breakeven mode is, how it is implemented, and its possible variations. Next, this functionality will be integrated into the Order Blocks expert advisor, which we created in our last article on risk management. To evaluate its effectiveness, we will run two backtests under specific conditions: one using the breakeven mechanism and the other without it.
Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 54): Filtering Trends with EMA and Smoothed Price Action
This article explores a method that combines Heikin‑Ashi smoothing with EMA20 High and Low boundaries and an EMA50 trend filter to improve trade clarity and timing. It demonstrates how these tools can help traders identify genuine momentum, filter out noise, and better navigate volatile or trending markets.
Atomic Orbital Search (AOS) algorithm: Modification
In the second part of the article, we will continue developing a modified version of the AOS (Atomic Orbital Search) algorithm focusing on specific operators to improve its efficiency and adaptability. After analyzing the fundamentals and mechanics of the algorithm, we will discuss ideas for improving its performance and the ability to analyze complex solution spaces, proposing new approaches to extend its functionality as an optimization tool.
Trading with the MQL5 Economic Calendar (Part 4): Implementing Real-Time News Updates in the Dashboard
This article enhances our Economic Calendar dashboard by implementing real-time news updates to keep market information current and actionable. We integrate live data fetching techniques in MQL5 to update events on the dashboard continuously, improving the responsiveness of the interface. This update ensures that we can access the latest economic news directly from the dashboard, optimizing trading decisions based on the freshest data.
Neural Networks in Trading: State Space Models
A large number of the models we have reviewed so far are based on the Transformer architecture. However, they may be inefficient when dealing with long sequences. And in this article, we will get acquainted with an alternative direction of time series forecasting based on state space models.
From Novice to Expert: Animated News Headline Using MQL5 (IX) — Multiple Symbol Management on a single chart for News Trading
News trading often requires managing multiple positions and symbols within a very short time due to heightened volatility. In today’s discussion, we address the challenges of multi-symbol trading by integrating this feature into our News Headline EA. Join us as we explore how algorithmic trading with MQL5 makes multi-symbol trading more efficient and powerful.
Neural Networks in Trading: Multi-Task Learning Based on the ResNeXt Model
A multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt optimizes the analysis of financial data, taking into account its high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time dependencies. The use of group convolution and specialized heads allows the model to effectively extract key features from the input data.
Neural Networks in Trading: Practical Results of the TEMPO Method
We continue our acquaintance with the TEMPO method. In this article we will evaluate the actual effectiveness of the proposed approaches on real historical data.
Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 17): Ticks and more ticks (I)
Here we will see how to implement something really interesting, but at the same time very difficult due to certain points that can be very confusing. The worst thing that can happen is that some traders who consider themselves professionals do not know anything about the importance of these concepts in the capital market. Well, although we focus here on programming, understanding some of the issues involved in market trading is paramount to what we are going to implement.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 18): Naturality Square
This article continues our series into category theory by introducing natural transformations, a key pillar within the subject. We look at the seemingly complex definition, then delve into examples and applications with this series’ ‘bread and butter’; volatility forecasting.
Larry Williams Market Secrets (Part 9): Patterns to Profit
An empirical study of Larry Williams' short-term trading patterns, showing how classic setups can be automated in MQL5, tested on real market data, and evaluated for consistency, profitability, and practical trading value.
The MQL5 Standard Library Explorer (Part 5): Multiple Signal Expert
In this session, we will build a sophisticated, multi-signal Expert Advisor using the MQL5 Standard Library. This approach allows us to seamlessly blend built-in signals with our own custom logic, demonstrating how to construct a powerful and flexible trading algorithm. For more, click to read further.
Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display
Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.
Neural Networks in Trading: Two-Dimensional Connection Space Models (Final Part)
We continue to explore the innovative Chimera framework – a two-dimensional state-space model that uses neural network technologies to analyze multidimensional time series. This method provides high forecasting accuracy with low computational cost.