Market / MetaTrader 5 / Indicators /

Reversal Probability Gauge

70 USD

Published: 2 September 2026

Current version: 1.0

Reversal Probability Gauge

Indicators
Paolo Scopazzo
Paolo Scopazzo
Freelancer

Italy

3997
3.6 (3)
MQL5 Advanced programmer.

75 products
Version: 1.0
Activations: 5

# Reversal Probability Gauge - Historical frequency by analogy

*Category: Oscillators | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1*

## Short description

> Searches history for bars with a state similar to the current one and counts in what percentage of those cases price then moved the opposite way. It is an observed frequency, not a forecast.

## Full description

### Overview

Instead of asserting that a reversal will happen, this indicator measures how many times, in the past and on this same instrument, a condition similar to the current one was actually followed by a reversal. It works as a search by analogy: it describes the current state with an oscillator, searches history for all past bars with a similar state within a tolerance, and counts in what percentage of those cases price moved the opposite way over the following bars. The result is a historical frequency. It must be said with maximum clarity that a past frequency is not a future probability: the value describes what happened, not what will happen, and should be used to calibrate expectation and sizing, never as a guarantee. The line showing the number of cases found exists precisely to judge how reliable the frequency is.

### How the calculation works

1. A range oscillator describes the state of every bar with a single number.

2. For every past bar the change realized within the chosen horizon is recorded.

3. The search for similar cases starts InpHorizon bars back: only those cases have a fully observed outcome.

4. This constraint is what guarantees no repaint: no future information ever enters the value of the current bar.

5. A case is similar when its state is less than InpTolerance away from the current state.

6. If fewer than InpMinCases cases are found the frequency is not shown: too small a sample is unreliable.

### How to use it

- Always look first at the gold line showing the number of cases: a frequency computed on few cases has no value.

- Use the frequency to size the position, not to decide whether to enter: a sixty per cent frequency still leaves forty per cent of contrary cases.

- Frequencies near fifty per cent mean that state has no predictive value on this instrument.

- Raise the tolerance to find more cases, knowing the cases become less similar and the frequency less specific.

- Comparing the frequency across instruments helps understand on which markets extremes carry real value.

### Who it is for and on which timeframes

It targets quantitatively minded traders who can tell an observed frequency from a forecast, a distinction essential to using it correctly. It works from M30 to D1. It requires very deep history and has the highest computational cost of the whole category, because it examines hundreds of past bars for every current bar. It is not for those seeking certainty: the greatest value of this indicator lies precisely in declaring when the data are insufficient to say anything.

### Practical example of reading a signal

On USDJPY H4 the oscillator reaches eighty eight. The indicator searches the last five hundred bars for all cases where the state was between eighty one and ninety five, finding forty three. Of these, in twenty eight cases price fell over the following five bars: the frequency is sixty five per cent and the histogram turns coloured. The correct reading is not that price will fall, but that in this specific condition, on this instrument, it fell in two cases out of three. A trader selling here can size the position knowing that roughly a third of the time they will lose, which is far more useful information than the plain assertion that overbought leads to a decline.

## Input parameters

| Parameter | Default | Description |

|---|---|---|

| `InpOscPeriod` | 14 | Period of the oscillator describing the state of every bar. |

| `InpLookback` | 500 | History searched for similar cases. The wider it is the more cases are found, but the computational cost grows. Internally capped at 3000. |

| `InpHorizon` | 5 | Bars within which the reversal is checked. It defines what counts as a reversal in time terms. |

| `InpTolerance` | 7.0 | How similar a past case must be to count as analogous. Tight tolerances give more similar but fewer cases. |

| `InpMinCases` | 12 | Minimum cases for the frequency to be shown. Below this threshold the value stays neutral. |

| `InpHighFreq` | 65.0 | Frequency beyond which the case is deemed notable and the histogram coloured. |

## Advantages / strengths

- It replaces a generic assertion with a measure verifiable on the instrument real data.

- It explicitly shows the sample size, allowing the reliability of every value to be judged.

- It refuses to produce a frequency when the cases found are insufficient, instead of showing an unfounded number.

- No repaint: the search uses only cases whose outcome is already fully observed.

## Limitations and warnings

- A historical frequency is not a future probability: the market can behave differently from how it behaved.

- It is the heaviest of the whole pack computationally: the first pass on long histories takes several seconds.

- The state is described by a single number, so two very different situations can look analogous.

- The result depends sensitively on the chosen tolerance and horizon: different values produce different frequencies.

**No repaint:** values printed on a closed bar are never modified afterwards.

**Disclaimer.** This product is a technical analysis tool, not an automated trading system, and it offers no profit guarantee whatsoever. Financial markets carry the risk of total loss of the invested capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Every signal must be confirmed with your own analysis, a money management plan and prior testing on a demo account. The author is not responsible for trading decisions taken on the basis of this indicator.

## Suggested tags / keywords for MQL5

`probability`, `frequency`, `analogy`, `backtest`, `oscillator`, `reversal`, `no repaint`, `statistics`

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This easy to setup indicator shows you the market volumes in a different way, with support and resistance as showed. You can setup: - Backdays volume to show - Heiken Ashi candle view It works for every kind of graph and every kind of period. The program shows the volumes based on the number of candles displayed in the chart: the more candles the more volumes. Enjoy this very useful indicator. Please feel free to message me to report any kind of improvements! :D

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A powerful oscillator that provide Buy and Sell signals by calculating the investor liquidity. The more liquidity the more buy possibilities. The less liquidity the more sell possibilities. Please download the demo and run a backtest! HOW IT WORKS: The oscillator will put buy and sell arrow on the chart in runtime only . Top value is 95 to 100 -> Investors are ready to buy and you should follow. Bottom value is 5 to 0 -> Investors are ready to sell and you should follow. Alert + sound will appe

30 USD

Showing like in the picture or in the logo multiple pair, multiple timeframes, multiple indicators in the same time , allowing you to click and go straight on that pair. The indicator will change like a Carosello every 3 seconds and will show you the indicator values also by background color to check in a very fast way if its oversold or overbought . Feel free to ask for adding new pair or indicator , i will update it for free. Pair managed: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCHF. Indicator man

39 USD

# Adaptive Slope Ribbon - ATR-normalised regression slope ribbon *Category: Trend | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Five linear regression slopes over growing horizons, normalised in ATR units and comparable across instruments. The histogram shows the mean slope coloured by the level of agreement between time scales. ## Fu

45 USD

# Fractal Trend Channel - Structural channel from confirmed swings *Category: Trend | Difficulty: beginner | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Step channel built from the last confirmed fractal swings, with a midline coloured by market structure: higher highs and lows, lower highs and lows, or mixed structure. ### Overview Reading structure through

35 USD

# Volatility Adaptive MA - Variable speed moving average *Category: Trend | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M5, M15, M30, H1, H4* ## Short description > A moving average whose smoothing factor is driven by the ratio between short and long term volatility: it accelerates during breakouts and slows down in compressed phases, cutting false crossovers. ### Overview Eve

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# Trend Persistence Index - Persistence versus randomness *Category: Trend | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Compares the direction changes actually observed with those expected from a purely random series. Above zero the market persists in one direction, below zero it keeps flipping. ### Overview In a random walk the sign of the

60 USD

# Kalman Trend Filter - Level and velocity Kalman filter *Category: Trend | Difficulty: advanced | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > A two state Kalman filter that simultaneously estimates price level and velocity. The gain self-adjusts: it trusts the model when data are consistent and re-adapts immediately to shocks. ### Overview The Kalman filter

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# Directional Efficiency - Net path versus gross path *Category: Trend | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Signed ratio between the net distance travelled by price and the gross path actually covered. It separates straight trends from disorderly advances that burn capital. ### Overview Two markets can rise by the same amoun

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# Trend Age Counter - Regime age versus typical duration *Category: Trend | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Counts how many bars the current regime has lasted and compares it with the average duration of all past regimes on the same instrument. It measures trend maturity, not strength. ### Overview Every trend indicator answer

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# Regression Confidence Baseline - Bands on residual error *Category: Trend | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Linear regression baseline with bands built on the residual standard error instead of the price standard deviation. Bands widen when the move loses order, not when price runs. ### Overview Classic volatility band

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# Trend Exhaustion Meter - Composite exhaustion score *Category: Trend | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > A 0 to 100 score combining stretch from the mean, directional saturation and momentum fade. It measures the continuation risk of a move, not its reversal. ### Overview No single symptom says a trend is about to end, but when se

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# Normalized Momentum Z - Momentum in standard scores *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Standardises momentum against its own recent historical distribution and returns a z score. A value of +2 marks a thrust stronger than roughly 97 per cent of the instrument recent moves. ### Overview Raw momentum ha

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# Momentum Curvature - Acceleration versus velocity *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Measures price acceleration, the second derivative of the smoothed series, and compares it with velocity. It detects loss of thrust before direction changes. ### Overview Anyone who drives knows the brake pedal acts o

45 USD

# Rate Of Change Spectrum - Which horizon is driving *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Standardises the rate of change over six horizons and identifies which one is driving the move. It shows the dominant scale score and its rank. ### Overview Knowing the market is rising tells you little. Knowing whether it ri

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# Impulse Strength Gauge - Movement weighted by volume *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M5, M15, M30, H1, H4* ## Short description > Weights every bar by combining body size in ATR units with volume relative to its average, then accumulates the contributions. It separates wide but empty bars from genuinely supported impulses. ### Overview A wide

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# Dual Horizon Momentum Delta - Short versus long, time corrected *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Compares momentum on two horizons after normalising them by the square root of time, a correction without which the long horizon would always look larger by pure construction. ### Overview Directly comparing

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# Impulse Retrace Ratio - Impulse size versus retracement size *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Groups consecutive same sign changes into runs and compares the average size of bullish runs with that of bearish ones. It measures whether impulses are larger, not more numerous. ### Overview A healthy upt

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# Momentum Thrust Counter - Counting thrusts beyond threshold *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: beginner | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Counts bars moving beyond an ATR multiple and reports the net balance. The total line separates calm from battle, both of which show a balance near zero. ### Overview Most bars on a chart carry no information: t

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# Momentum Divergence Scanner - Divergences without repaint *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Flags price to momentum divergences using confirmed swings only. The arrow appears on confirmation and is never withdrawn, unlike almost every other divergence indicator. ### Overview Almost every divergence

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# Elastic Momentum Band - Momentum driven asymmetric channel *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4* ## Short description > A channel deforming with momentum: the band favouring the move draws closer to the average, the opposite one moves away. It makes breaks in direction easier and counter breaks more selective. ### Overview A symm

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# Momentum Entropy Filter - Order versus randomness in thrusts *Category: Momentum | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Computes the Shannon entropy of the recent momentum distribution and converts it into an order score from 0 to 100. It separates markets with recurring structure from those without regularity. ### Overview Shannon e

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# Realized Volatility Cone - Historical volatility percentiles *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Draws realized volatility together with the percentiles of its own historical distribution. It tells whether the current level is high or low for that specific instrument. ### Overview Knowing that realized vo

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# Volatility Forecast EWMA - Forecasting the next bar *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Estimates next bar volatility with an EWMA model on variance, the same scheme used in portfolio risk management, alongside the volatility actually observed. ### Overview Every volatility indicator looks backwards and

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# Volatility Regime Classifier - Classification with hysteresis *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Classifies volatility into four regimes using a hysteresis state machine, eliminating the constant flipping typical of fixed thresholds. The active threshold is drawn. ### Overview Classifying volatility

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# Garman Klass Volatility - An estimator using the whole OHLC *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: advanced | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > A volatility estimator using open, high, low and close instead of closes only. Its ratio to the classic estimate separates intra-bar movement from close-to-close movement. ### Overview The standard deviation o

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# Overnight Gap Risk - The risk stops cannot cover *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Stocks | Suggested timeframes: H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Splits each bar change into gap and intra-bar movement, and reports the share of risk attributable to gaps, the part no stop can protect against. ### Overview The risk of a position held past the close is not the same as that of the same position closed intraday, and the dif

45 USD

# Volatility Breakout Projection - Levels projected from the open *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: beginner | Window: chart window (overlaid on price) | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M5, M15, M30, H1* ## Short description > Anchors a reference to each session open and projects two pairs of levels computed as fractions of the average daily range. Levels stay fixed for the whole session. ### Overview If an instrument covers on ave

40 USD

# Compression Expansion Detector - Squeeze and release *Category: Volatility | Difficulty: intermediate | Window: separate window below the chart | Markets: Universal (Forex, indices, commodities, crypto, stocks) | Suggested timeframes: M15, M30, H1, H4, D1* ## Short description > Measures how far short term volatility has narrowed relative to the reference, counts how many bars the compression has lasted and highlights the bars following the release. ### Overview Volatility is not stable:

45 USD

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Reversal Probability Gauge

Paolo Scopazzo