Forecast and levels for EURO - page 32

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.08 09:48

EUR/USD - weekly bearish ranging; 1.14 is the key for the weekly bullish reversal to be started (based on the article)

EURUSD weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro has stalled near one-month support after recoiling from resistance capping upside progress against the US Dollar since late September 2018. That barrier has also established a shallow but unmistakable series of lower highs. Indeed, prices appear to be stair-stepping lower, despite a lot of chop along the way."
  • "From here, a daily close below the March 7 low at 1.1176 opens the door for a test of the 1.1110-32 area, marked by a range floor dating back to mid-2017. Thorough invalidation of the near-term bearish bias is some way off, calling for a daily close above trend line resistance now situated at 1.1412."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.14 10:32

EUR/USD - possible breakout with the bullish reversal; 1.1372 is the key (based on the article)

EUR/USD Daily/Weekly Ichimoku charts by Metatrader 5

  • "A week ago, EUR bears were likely chilling their champagne bottles in anticipation of potential profits to be realized as of the close of trading this week. An ECB with a worsening economic outlook seemed to be a ripe environment for sharp losses. On Wednesday, when the ECB met, the markets grabbed onto the message that the ECB will consider whether it needs to mitigate any of the side effects from negative rates and the long-term bank funding “solution: known as TLTRO-III, but that was not enough to bring out the bears accumulation of shorts."
  • "Now, the EUR is moving to the highest levels since late March after forming a potential double-bottom low of $1.1184 per EUR on April 2nd (monthly opening range low)."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

Daily bullish reversal to be started - 

Daily EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.17 06:59

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and Crude Oil: China Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

2019-04-17 02:00 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From rttnews article :

  • "China's gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday - in line with expectations and down from 1.5 percent in the three months prior."
  • "On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 6.4 percent - unchanged from Q4 and beating forecasts for 6.3 percent."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

USD/CNH: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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EUR/USD: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events 

EUR/USD: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by China Gross Domestic Product news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.04.18 15:58

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: United States Retail Sales

2019-04-18 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From nytimes article :

  • "U.S. retail sales increased by the most in 1-1/2 years in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start."
  • "The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales surged 1.6 percent last month. That was the biggest increase since September 2017 and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent drop in February."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.04 08:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2019-05-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance."

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Dollar Index M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

Dollar Index M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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EUR/USD M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events



EUR/USD M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

USD/CNH M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.14 17:10

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and range price movement 

2019-05-14 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

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From official report :

  • "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany records a decrease of 5.2 points in May 2019, and now stands at minus 2.1 points. The indicator’s long-term average is 22.1 points. Over the same period, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany has improved by 2.7 points, with the corresponding indicator climbing to a current reading of 8.2 points. The development of production and exports in Germany as well as Eurostat’s most recent flash estimate of GDP growth in the euro area in the first quarter of 2019 give rise to the hope that the German economy, too, has grown more strongly than expected in the first quarter."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.15 08:27

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2019-05-15 06:00 GMT | [EUR - German GDP]

  • past data is 0.0% 
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.4% according to the latest press release 
if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From fxstreet article :

  • "The German economy expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2019 and matched expectations, the preliminary report by Destatis showed this Wednesday. Meanwhile, the yearly growth rate slowed more than expected to 0.6% as compared to the previous reading of 0.9%."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by German GDP news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by German GDP news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.29 05:42

Soft Brexit And The EU Elections (based on the article)

EUR/USD weekly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The UK’s EU election results gave Remain sentiment a clear victory (40.4%) over hard Brexit advocates (34.9%), despite the Brexit Party’s plurality win. While this outcome raises prospects for derailing Brexit, the Conservative Party still controls parliament and remains broadly pro-Brexit, more at odds over form than outcome. The election result should make Tory backbenchers more wary of selecting a hard Brexit advocate as leader, but bringing on a strong pro-Brexit supporter may be the only way to get hard Brexit supporters to sign onto a “soft” Brexit deal. As a result, Sunday’s election outcome clearly raises the potential for both a no-deal Brexit, as well as no Brexit at all."

Soft Brexit And The EU Elections

  • "GeoQuant indicators nevertheless continue to indicate that soft Brexit remains the most likely outcome. We maintain this prediction despite the fact that PM Theresa May will step down on 7 June, when GeoQuant’s Government Instability Risk measure is forecast to hit its highest level since the ill-fated snap election in June 2017. Note that we used this indicator at least four times to successfully predict that May would survive various challenges to her leadership. Now it indicates the reality that while May’s reign is over, her Tory party continues to control the government."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.04 17:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: Federal Reserve System (Fed) Chair Powell Speech

2019-06-04 13:55 GMT | [USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks]

[USD - Fed Chair Powell Speaks] = Speech about the Federal Reserve's policy strategy, tools, and communication practices at an event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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From cnbc article :

  • "Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is watching current economic developments and will do what it must to keep the near-record expansion going. Financial markets have been nervous lately over an escalating trade war that has spread from China and now could include Mexico. At the same, government bond yields are behaving in a way that in the past has been a reliable recession indicator."
  • "Powell has stuck to the position that the Fed remains data dependent. The most recent FOMC statement, from its May meeting, indicated that the committee is taking a patient stance toward policy changes at conditions evolve."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

USD/JPY: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

NZD/USD: range price movement by Fed Chair Powell Speech news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


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