Forecast and levels for JPY - page 6

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.09 18:22

USD/JPY - daily primary bullish; 13.43 resistance is the key (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the bullish breakout: the price is testing 113.43 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.


  • "USDJPY short-term implied volatility may be underpricing a sustained breakout from the recent trading range; downside looks like the biggest risk at the moment. When comparing 1-week to 1-month implied volatility the shorter dated options are pricing in less movement in USDJPY in the near-term than their longer-dated counterparts. One-month IV is at 9.18% while one-week is at only 7.97%. Volatility has been on the decline in recent weeks and the trading range in the Yen highlights this. The fact the currency has a ‘risk-on, risk-off’ component to it only helped push volatility lower as risk appetite for stocks has been strong, compacting volatility in major equity indices as evidenced by the CBOE VIX index (S&P 500) which continues to hover around 10. "
  • "Related events/data: The BoJ’s Kuroda will be speaking at 12:30 am GMT time on Tuesday; FOMC September meeting minutes on Wednesday; CPI, Advance Retail Sales, and UofM Confidence on Friday."
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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.10 18:52

USD/JPY - daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the bullish area of the chart. The price is in narrow ranging within 113.43/111.09 support resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing or to correction to the bearish reversal to be started.


  • "Retail trader data shows 41.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.4 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.1% higher than yesterday and 12.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.3% higher than yesterday and 31.1% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

The USDJPY has been respecting the round number levels of the 112.00 and the 113.00. The 55 day EMA has crossed above the 200 day EMA, indicating a possible golden cross with bullish implications mid-term. But the pair must break above the 113.00 level in order to continue higher towards the high at the 114.90 level. To the downside, the 111.15 level may act as support.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.25 14:55

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-10-25 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 2.0%
  • forecast data is 1.0%
  • actual data is 2.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From cnbc article :

  • "Overall orders for durable goods shot up 2.2 percent last month amid a 5.1 percent rise in demand for transportation equipment."
  • "Durable goods orders, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, increased 2.0 percent in August."
  • "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in September and shipments rose for an eighth straight month."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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Chart #1 was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

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Chart #2 was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.28 11:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "At next week’s meeting, there are few hopes for any actual moves. The one prospect of change on the horizon is a potential nudge-lower to near-term inflation forecasts. In a Bloomberg report earlier in the week, ‘people familiar with the Central Bank’s discussions’ implied that the BoJ may be considering a “small” cut to their inflation projections for this fiscal year, which ends in March of 2018. The current projection of 1.1% has started to look like quite the stretch: August saw inflation come in at a surprising .7%, but this was after four consecutive months of CPI coming in at a .4% clipin a year that saw inflation remain below .5% for a full twelve months."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.01 09:30

USD/JPY - daily ranging bullish; 114.45 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging above Ichimoku cloud within 114.45 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 111.47 support level for the bearish reversal to be started. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the primary bullish market condition to be continuing.


  • "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 48.6% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.06 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.7% lower than yesterday and 8.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.6% higher than yesterday and 0.2% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.05 08:52

Weekly USD/JPY Outlook: 2017, November 05 - November 12 (based on the article)

Dollar/yen got used to the 113 handle early in the week and attempts to settle above 114 were heavily fought by sellers. The Fed decision, the nomination of a new Fed Chair and the NFP all moved the pair, but the ranges were not challenged.


  • "It certainly was a busy week. The Bank of Japan made no changes to its policy and seems to be pleased with the weaker yen. The Fed also kept interest rates unchanged. Despite an acknowledgment that inflation is “soft”, the Fed refrained from sending a signal that it will not raise rates."
  • "Jay Powell has been nominated by Trump as the next Fed Chair. The move was well-telegraphed and he represents continuation rather than a change. This is not helpful to the US dollar.The Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed, especially on wages. Salaries are up only 2.4% y/y, not enough to push inflation higher."
  • "The upcoming week is not as busy, but US building permits, housing starts, and consumer confidence should provide some action. Also note a speech from the President of the New York Fed, the first after the nomination of Powell."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.15 06:45

USD/JPY - daily bullish ranging; 114.73 is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is above 200 peiod SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 114.73 resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed and 113.08 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

By the way, if the price breaks 111.89 support level to below on daily close bar so the bearish reversal of the daily price movement will be started with 111.02 daily target to re-enter.


  • "The Bank of Japan is committed to “powerful monetary easing” in the oft-spoken words of its Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, until annualized consumer price inflation tops 2%. Well, it’s now at 0.7% and holding so that easing could yet be with us for years. Meanwhile the US Federal Reserve has raised its own interest rates from their post-crisis depths. It’s still expected to do so once again in December and to continue the process in 2018 if the economics permit, albeit gradually."
  • "This thesis has seenUSD/JPYrise very sharply since early September but, tellingly, the Dollar remains unable to convincingly top the last two notable highs."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.11.22 15:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, USD/CNH and Gold: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-11-22 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From cnbc article :

  • "New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in October after three straight months of hefty gains, but a sustained increase in shipments pointed to strong momentum in the economy as the year winds down."
  • "Shipments of core capital goods advanced 0.4 percent last month after accelerating by 1.2 percent in September. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government's gross domestic product measurement."

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USD/JPY M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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USD/CNH M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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XAU/USD M1: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events


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The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


US Census Bureau Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders
  • US Census Bureau: Adriana Stoica (M3 Section Chief)
  • www.census.gov
Our population statistics cover age, sex, race, Hispanic origin, migration, ancestry, language use, veterans, as well as population estimates and projections. This section provides information on a range of educational topics, from educational attainment and school enrollment to school districts, costs and financing.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.06 12:40

USD/JPY - daily ranging around bullish/bearish reversal area for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is ranging aroud 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area.

If the price breaks 113.09 resistance level to above so the priumary bullish trend will be resumed.
If the price breaks 110.84 support level to below on daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started.


  • "The near-term USD/JPY candlestick version makes it look as though a head and shoulder pattern may be in the offing. After all the current climb seems to be losing momentum already, before it gets anywhere near the previous peak of 114.72. And it’s losing momentum just about exactly where the putative first shoulder was made. Should the second be confirmed by a marked move lower from current levels then the entire climb up from September’s lows in the 107 region could be in some jeopardy."
  • "It’s also worth looking at the range which has essentially contained USD/JPY all year. To be sure it is broad, taking the pair from the 107-region up to the 114s. But it has endured through all of 2017’s fundamental twists and turns and it is probably safest to assume that it still does, in the absence of clear evidence to the contrary."

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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


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